What would you all say would be a good turnout for Burn this year? Optimistically? Pessimistically? Realistically?

Why the hell do you care? WHat the hell is the point of thread after thread of the same passive aggressive 'discussion' about ever single inner working detail about bonfire? You probably know the answer a head of time, yet bring it up anyways to make SB inc. look bad as an organization without actually saying anything. In other words, you are yet another forum troll.


But to answer the question anyways.... Optimimistically, we want as many people as possible. Pessimistically, only the crews and their friends will be there. In reality, probably all the crews, some of their families, and maybe 500 more randoms will be there. Who the hell knows.

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and maybe 500 more randoms will be there.

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Only 500?

Wow...why so defensive? My god...it was just a question. No, I don't know the answer, that's why I asked.

How the hell is me asking what kind of turnout is expected going to make SB look bad?

Is this that horrible of a question?

Anybody else...? Maybe an answer this time?

I know you don't believe it, but I really don't want to make you or SB look bad, I'd like to see you/y'all do great. Like LEW said some time ago, if SB wasn't cared about, nobody would be having this conversation. Is anybody talking about Chris Bell in here? Who? That's right. Critisism does not always equal hate.

Now...not to go off on the tangent, maybe this thread can just stay on topic. What are the expectations as far as attendence on 11/21?

[This message has been edited by SquareOne07 (edited 10/31/2006 2:09p).]

Honestly after last years burn problems I am afraid of a low turn out.

We really need a well organized burn night show and some freaking advertising.

In my fantasy SB gets 10,000 people. In my nightmare am guessing 3000-4000.

[This message has been edited by HOGS LEW (edited 10/31/2006 2:21p).]

The location doesn't help. It's going to be a low turnout and I doubt there will be much of a system there for getting people in and out. If I had to guess, I'd say a few hundred.

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We really need a well organized burn night show and some freaking advertising.

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I agree wholeheartedly.

I think the important part of this year's fire is to clean our slate and have a well ran, successful burn.

SB screwed the pooch on the location.

First and foremost, they will need a perfect transportation plan. Even with shuttle busses from lots in Hearne, there is an upper bound on the number of people that can be transported to the site.

Secondly, they need a well-choreographed event plan. That means staging, lights, a definite sequence of events and speakers, etc.

Both of these issues have been MAJOR PROBLEMS since 2002.

Every year I've stated that burn needs to have a completely seperate committee that does nothing but manage everything that happens outside of perimeter on the day it burns. That would be their sole responsibility.

Every year those suggestions are ignored, and management of the burn event is still an ad hoc process handled by people that have a multitude of other responsibilities in the organization. It's too much of an afterthought, despite the fact that it's the organizations most important aspect - its face to the outside world.


[This message has been edited by Keegan99 (edited 10/31/2006 3:13p).]

Keegan, you're one smart guy.

Attendance will take a hit this year, this has been known from the start due to the Burn date. True, now the current location doesn't help much either. However, the Redpots busted their collective asses this year attempting to secure one location after another in Brazos county only to have them fall through for one reason or another not under their control. So, let's not drag them completely through the coals on the location choice. I'm not completely happy with it either, but I recognize that it was the best they could do with what they had to work with. If any of you have land closer to town or in a better location, or know of someone who does, by all means, stand up and let the guys know so that they can use it next year.

Having said that, yes, the key to making this site work is how well the logistics of getting folks in and out are managed and how well word about this plan is made known to the public so that no one avoids the event due to misinformation. This will be a much harder task than years before, so offer suggestions instead of just general complaints and criticisms about something they haven't even done yet. Unless of course you are just trying to set yourselves up so that on 11/22 you can get here and post "I told you so, I told you so" over an over.

Keegan, you've been out there; you know what they are up against; if you have some ideas, tell someone. If you can't get a response, email me.

Scott Coker '92

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First and foremost, they will need a perfect transportation plan. Even with shuttle busses from lots in Hearne, there is an upper bound on the number of people that can be transported to the site.

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what buses? what lots? isn't there enough parking on site?

If I remember last year there is about he same amout of parking as there was available last year, and there were busses available running form the hall out to burn. It would probably be a good idea to do again being the burn site is a bit of a trip out. Guess we'll have to wait and see what the red's have planned out. They know more than we do.

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what buses? what lots? isn't there enough parking on site?

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Ok, here's the fundamental problem with that:

Do the math. You have one lane of access to the site. How many cars can be parked in an hour? How many people can you expect per car?

Let's say you can park one car every 10 seconds, and let's say a car has, on average, 3 people.

That allows you to bring in 18 people per minute, or 1040 people per hour. Not good.


Ideally, ASB needs access to a large parking facility (1500+ spaces at a minimum, 2500+ preferable) with multilane access within 10 minutes of burn site. From that location, dispatch a fleet of 50 shuttle busses.

Each shuttle bus can make three roundtrips in an hour, making that bus's throughput 150 people per hour. With 50 buses, that's 7500 people in an hour. That's much closer to what ASB needs.


I'll tell you this much:

If our football team beats OU and NU, then you're going to have a mob scene on burn night.

[This message has been edited by Keegan99 (edited 11/1/2006 5:11p).]

Thanks, Keegan. That's the type of input that is needed.

Scott Coker '92

Coker - no, thank you.

I'll add that those requirements fluctuate a bit if the event is structured to entice more people to arrive early. The larger timeframe over which you can spread the crowd influx, the easier the problem is to solve.

Short of a concert by a well-known artist, I'm not sure what can be done to have significant impact in that department, however.

At the very least, reward those that do arrive early. Have an emcee that periodically addresses the crowd, maybe giving them a countdown to burn or somesuch. Give out prizes - such as ASB t-shirts - for Aggie trivia every so often. Maybe have a raffle with drawings perdiocally as well (which is another fundraising opportunity!)

Keep people engaged and entertained, not sitting around bored and frustrated.



[This message has been edited by Keegan99 (edited 11/1/2006 5:53p).]

Yeah, it seems like there could be a lot of problems getting people out there, especially with how the road narrows down after that fork. I find myself slowing down big time after that point out of sheer fear of whether someone is barreling down the road at the next turn. Do they plan to have any kind of traffic control on that road? Without it, things could foreseeably turn into a huge mess very quickly.

Also, has anyone given a thought to providing some type of concession out there, namely water and the like? Not only would that help the crowd out a little bit, but it would also be a good chance for ASB to bring in some more funds.

- Werley
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Lekner Hall,
Got it made!
We go to class
cuz we get paid!

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You have one lane of access to the site.

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This is why busses would be a disaster. With busses, you require two directional traffic (bus arriving, bus returning). With parking at stack site, and possibly getting in good with a few of the adjacent landowners for parking, you can park 1 car per lot per 10 seconds.

get 3 lots and you've just trippled that number for a single lot.

To further rebel's point, it is my understanding that the surrounding landowners around the current cut/stack site have offered their land as potential parking lots.

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This is why busses would be a disaster. With busses, you require two directional traffic (bus arriving, bus returning).

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I believe the road out to the site circles back around, so a turnaround wouldn't be necessary.

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With parking at stack site, and possibly getting in good with a few of the adjacent landowners for parking, you can park 1 car per lot per 10 seconds.

get 3 lots and you've just trippled that number for a single lot.

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It's not a simple tripling of efficiency. You're only removing the parking as the limiting factor and replacing it with something else.

The bottleneck then likely becomes the speed at which a constant stream of vehicles can access and then travel down a one lane dirt road.

IMHO, the turn onto the dirt road is the most probable choke point that can't be overcome. Vehicles can't take that turn at more than 5 MPH or so.

Do the math on that, and you are unlikely to get three vehicles to make that turn in 10 seconds.


[This message has been edited by Keegan99 (edited 11/1/2006 11:50p).]

Good to see that simple logistical concerns that have NEVER worked in the last 4 years have been ironed out this year. Striking efficiency.


[This message has been edited by AB2 (edited 11/1/2006 11:57p).]

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I believe the road out to the site circles back around, so a turnaround wouldn't be necessary.

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According to Google Earth The trip from the intersection of SH6 and FM 391 to Stack Site is 8.9 miles. The shortest back side of a "loop" that never doubles back on itself on a gravel road is 19 miles (taking Edwards to Buckwhart back to paved FM 391). This means that for every one bus going to, you would need 2 returning to keep an even schedule. This does not account for the busses that get caught in the traffic of people parking at Stack Site.

If, while working with the Robertson County officials, Pin Oak road can be exclusively ours for the night, traffic can go one direction in the early evening, and the other direction for the rest of the night. Should people want to show up late or leave early, the "backside" of that loop I was talking about should be published.

Assuming they are follwing no more than a safe distance behind one another (3 seconds), 3 vehicles can easily turn onto Pin Oak from FM 2549 in 10 seconds. The bottleneck would occur at the parking end. The more cars that can park simultaneously, the easier that end flows. The blind turns on Pin Oak, and the washboards along the way should keep speeds low enough on the entire road that traffic flows pretty evenly.

This is assuming that there is no reason to stop cars as they get to the gate. If busses run in addition to parking at Site, then each car would have to stop and pay for parking. If no busses are run, any fee that might be required for parking could be worked into admission.

Flat rate parking would promote carpooling. similar to Santa's Wonderland...as more people share rides, traffic becomes lighter.

This is all getting very messy.

And I sincerely doubt the county is going to let SB dictate their traffic patterns and such.

Do you really need to be so negative?

What's negative about that? It's unrealistic to think that the county will close roads for SB. When making plans like this you have to be realistic.

well...

1)Pin Oak Rd stays open to 2-way traffic, the one or two cars traveling the opposite direction as Bonfire traffic create a safety hazard, while the single lane road is bombarded by traffic predominantly in one direction.

2)The residents of Pin Oak Road are informed of the situation, Pin Oak Road is closed to oncomming traffic and any possibilty of head on collisions on a gravel road is eliminated.

This isn't an interstate, it is a gravel road that doesn't see much traffic on a normal basis.

dam....i hadnt had a chance to look into all of this parking stuff. Me and a few others were planning on going, but i don't know if its worth the hassle of the parking and such. Seriously rethinking it now.

And FYI, i dont blame SB for any of this. I DO blame the university for it though.

[This message has been edited by jed1154 (edited 11/2/2006 12:50p).]

...what...why the silence?

We should start a petition to close all two lane roads and make them one way, you know...for safety reasons.

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What's negative about that? It's unrealistic to think that the county will close roads for SB. When making plans like this you have to be realistic.

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Prior experiences are not on your side in this one.

In 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005, the county or other law enforcement officials closed roads or otherwise restricted access to burn site in order to expedite the flow of patrons to and from ASB.

[This message has been edited by Keegan99 (edited 11/2/2006 1:32p).]

That's just it...Pin Oak is not a two lane road, it is a lane and a half at best, one in some parts (like the one lane bridge).

If you'd been out to Cut and met an oncomming car, you'd be very familar with the ditch by now.

Traffic issues are no reason to miss what might be one of the most memorable nights in your life.

Can I park my RV? We'd like to get out there in mid afternoon and stay until the traffic dissipates. Perhaps we'd like to stay all night, if that would be permitted.

I know the gates close at 9:30 p.m. and probably this has something to do with the mass gathering permit law. Perhaps not.

Comments?

jed and others, don't make your decision not to come this early in the game, please. There are for sure some logistics to be worked out and every effort is going to be made to make things go smoothly. I'm going to keep pushing the idea that the parking/transportation plan has to be released as soon as it's finalized to minimize the amount of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that is spread through misinformation. Granted there's not going to be a perfect plan for everyone, but at least if you know all the details you can make your decision based on those instead.


Scott Coker '92