Trade deal with India

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annie88
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11:04a, 2/4/26
AG
I saw this write-up earlier today, for those of you more in the know about this, I realize it's coming from a source supportive of Trump, but is this a good summary?

Most of you don't understand what happened today with Trump's trade deal with India. This is a MAJOR geopolitical blow to China/Russia/Iran and the other players attempting to de-dollarize. BRICS has now suffered three MAJOR blows. Venezuela losing control of their oil, Iran losing their immediate nuclear ambition and now this deal with India. Trump is making it look too easy. No wars, no occupation, just calculated masterclass leadership.

While the usual suspects were busy doom scrolling and pretending tariffs are some mysterious dark art, Trump was doing what he's always done best: picking up the phone and bending the global chessboard without firing a single shot.

India, 1.4 billion people. A cornerstone of BRICS. The same bloc we were told would rise up and replace America if we just kept apologizing long enough. Trump talks to Modi and suddenly India agrees to drop tariffs on American goods to zero, commit to buying over five hundred billion dollars of American energy, technology, agriculture and coal, and start moving away from Russian oil toward US oil.
A phenomenal feat previous presidents couldn't fathom.

Instead of sending pallets of cash overseas and calling it foreign policy, Trump used Leverage, Economics and Strategic Intelligence. Cutting off Russian oil revenue hits Moscow where it actually hurts and moves the needle toward ending the Ukraine war without turning American taxpayers into the world's permanent ATM. Funny how that works.

And let's not miss the funniest part. The US still lowers its tariff from twenty five percent to eighteen percent and walks away owning the deal. Modi publicly praises Trump and thanks him on behalf of 1.4 billion people. That level of gratitude and respect hasn't been expressed since Reagan.

BRICS was supposed to be the future. Instead, Trump just turned one of its biggest players into a customer. America isn't isolated. America is being chosen.

No new wars. Real pressure applied. American products winning again. American energy back on top. Globalists furious. Cable news confused.

This is what happens when the guy running the country actually understands negotiation instead of treating diplomacy like a group therapy session.

Call him whatever names you want. The scoreboard doesn't care.
“Some people bring joy wherever they go, and some people bring joy whenever they go.” ~ Mark Twain
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YouBet
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11:12a, 2/4/26
AG
That's obviously AI, but if it's true then it sounds like a good development on the surface.

Here is the WSJ's take on it: https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/why-india-will-struggle-to-reduce-its-reliance-on-russian-oil-b2f16646?st=oRuEFZ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

India doesn't really use the type of oil we produce, and it will be more expensive for them to switch to us so probably should take this deal with a grain of salt. Seems like bold below is more accurate about this.

Quote:
India, meanwhile, has yet to confirm the oil part of the trade pact with Trump. Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn't say anything in his social-media posts on the deal. India's foreign ministry hasn't made any comments on the matter either.

The Kremlin told reporters on Tuesday that it hadn't heard any statements from India about plans to stop purchasing oil from Russia.

Quote:
"I'm skeptical," said David Wech, chief economist at Vortexa. "It would be a huge decision for India to completely move away from Russian crude. I don't think that the real intention is to bring India's Russia crude imports to zero. It's more to increase the pressure on Russia."

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infinity ag
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1:31p, 2/4/26
I sense trouble ahead.

1. Trump announced on twitter and his people are announcing it on social media that India agreed to not buy oil from RUS. And that the tariffs on US goods selling to India is 0%.
2. Indian PM Modi praised the deal and the reduction of tariff to 18% BUT did not mention anything about not buying oil from RUS and about reducing tariff on US products to 0%.

So I see some major trouble brewing ahead. Who is right? If India agreed to not buy oil, why are they not openly saying it? Indian media and people are rejoicing that Modi put one across to Trump and got a better deal and are flexing. Do both countries have different views on what was agreed upon? If Modi has actually agreed to not buy from RUS, then he will face politicial challenges at home.

So what is right? Trouble in either case. Either Modi or Trump will look bad in the coming days.

If Modi says we have to continue to buy from RUS, then Trump will pull the deal.
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infinity ag
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1:34p, 2/4/26
Indian side is flexing some more.
That they will wait for Trump to leave.


Ajit Doval told Marco Rubio India 'won't be bullied, will wait out Trump's term': Report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ajit-doval-told-marco-rubio-india-wont-be-bullied-will-wait-out-trumps-term-india-us-trade-deal-101770221787180.html

Quote:
Doval also told Rubio that India would not be bullied by US President Trump and his top aides, officials in New Delhi familiar with the meeting said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi too welcomed the announcement, thanking Trump for lowering duties on Made in India products.

However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.
According to the report, Doval also told Rubio that India would not be bullied by US President Trump and his top aides, officials in New Delhi familiar with the meeting said.

The National Security Adviser further told Rubio that India would also be willing to wait out Trump's term, but wanted the US administration to dial down their public criticism so that relations could be brought back on track, according to Bloomberg.

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Sims
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In reply to infinity ag • 1:40p, 2/4/26
AG
Pretty sure that was in September and it had more to do with Operation Sindoor and Trump's overtures that he had mediated the ceasefire and peace talks following. Nothing to do with trade.
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Deerdude
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1:48p, 2/4/26
Well both countries can win at this, there doesn't always have to be a winner and loser.
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infinity ag
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In reply to Sims • 2:31p, 2/4/26
Sims said:
Pretty sure that was in September and it had more to do with Operation Sindoor and Trump's overtures that he had mediated the ceasefire and peace talks following. Nothing to do with trade.


That is today's news. Look at the date.
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Sims
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In reply to infinity ag • 2:34p, 2/4/26
AG
Read your own quote:

Quote:
However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.

Also considerr why would a national security advisor be warning our secretary of state to chill out on trade negotiations?
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infinity ag
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In reply to Sims • 3:19p, 2/4/26
Sims said:
Read your own quote:

Quote:
However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.

Also considerr why would a national security advisor be warning our secretary of state to chill out on trade negotiations?


OK.

But the important point I am not clear about is, what about oil from RUS? Trump and Modi are saying different things. What exactly has been agreed upon? Some indian media are claiming Trump just said it but did not mean it. And IND will reduce but not stop. What has been agreed upon?
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deddog
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In reply to infinity ag • 3:31p, 2/4/26
AG
infinity ag said:
Indian side is flexing some more.
That they will wait for Trump to leave.


Ajit Doval told Marco Rubio India 'won't be bullied, will wait out Trump's term': Report
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ajit-doval-told-marco-rubio-india-wont-be-bullied-will-wait-out-trumps-term-india-us-trade-deal-101770221787180.html

Quote:
Doval also told Rubio that India would not be bullied by US President Trump and his top aides, officials in New Delhi familiar with the meeting said.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi too welcomed the announcement, thanking Trump for lowering duties on Made in India products.

However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.
According to the report, Doval also told Rubio that India would not be bullied by US President Trump and his top aides, officials in New Delhi familiar with the meeting said.

The National Security Adviser further told Rubio that India would also be willing to wait out Trump's term, but wanted the US administration to dial down their public criticism so that relations could be brought back on track, according to Bloomberg.


This was during negotiations, when Doval was in the US
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deddog
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In reply to infinity ag • 3:32p, 2/4/26
AG
infinity ag said:
Sims said:
Pretty sure that was in September and it had more to do with Operation Sindoor and Trump's overtures that he had mediated the ceasefire and peace talks following. Nothing to do with trade.


That is today's news. Look at the date.

Yes, but it is talking of an incident months ago.

Months ahead of the India-US trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
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deddog
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In reply to infinity ag • 3:35p, 2/4/26
AG
infinity ag said:
Sims said:
Read your own quote:

Quote:
However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.

Also considerr why would a national security advisor be warning our secretary of state to chill out on trade negotiations?


OK.

But the important point I am not clear about is, what about oil from RUS? Trump and Modi are saying different things. What exactly has been agreed upon? Some indian media are claiming Trump just said it but did not mean it. And IND will reduce but not stop. What has been agreed upon?

My guess is that they agreed to a gradual reduction in purchases. You can't just switch overnight.
If India hadn't agreed to it, Modi would have flatly denied it.
Instead, he's just not talking about it, meaning India definitely agreed to reduce oil purchases from Russia.
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infinity ag
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In reply to deddog • 4:12p, 2/4/26
deddog said:
infinity ag said:
Sims said:
Read your own quote:

Quote:
However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.

Also considerr why would a national security advisor be warning our secretary of state to chill out on trade negotiations?


OK.

But the important point I am not clear about is, what about oil from RUS? Trump and Modi are saying different things. What exactly has been agreed upon? Some indian media are claiming Trump just said it but did not mean it. And IND will reduce but not stop. What has been agreed upon?

My guess is that they agreed to a gradual reduction in purchases. You can't just switch overnight.
If India hadn't agreed to it, Modi would have flatly denied it.
Instead, he's just not talking about it, meaning India definitely agreed to reduce oil purchases from Russia.


So does it mean gradual reduce to zero, or does it mean gradual reduce it to some undefined point, which will help Trump save face and also Modi to not have political repercussions that he capitulated?
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deddog
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In reply to infinity ag • 4:15p, 2/4/26
AG
infinity ag said:
deddog said:
infinity ag said:
Sims said:
Read your own quote:

Quote:
However, months ahead of the trade deal, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval visited Washington, wherein he told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that he wanted to put the acrimony between the two nations behind it and get back to negotiating a trade deal, Bloomberg reported.

Also considerr why would a national security advisor be warning our secretary of state to chill out on trade negotiations?


OK.

But the important point I am not clear about is, what about oil from RUS? Trump and Modi are saying different things. What exactly has been agreed upon? Some indian media are claiming Trump just said it but did not mean it. And IND will reduce but not stop. What has been agreed upon?

My guess is that they agreed to a gradual reduction in purchases. You can't just switch overnight.
If India hadn't agreed to it, Modi would have flatly denied it.
Instead, he's just not talking about it, meaning India definitely agreed to reduce oil purchases from Russia.


So does it mean gradual reduce to zero, or does it mean gradual reduce it to some undefined point, which will help Trump save face and also Modi to not have political repercussions that he capitulated?

Whatever encourages trade between the two nations.
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American Hardwood
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4:40p, 2/4/26
AG
I just hope to continue to be able to buy fantastic Indian sourced fabrics and furnishings on Etsy at a reasonable price. Is it wrong to admit that?
The best way to keep evil men from wielding great power is to not create great power in the first place.
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BusterAg
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5:30p, 2/4/26
AG
The major issue here is preventing the Yuan or Euro from replacing the $ in the oil business, which this deal helps to shore up if India agrees to buy US energy. Everything else is just details.
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Pooh-ah95_ESL
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7:45a, 2/6/26
AG
I stumbled across this info on an Al Jazeera article. I view tariffs as a means to an end and a very useful tool that it seems most of our politicians have not understood for the last 50 years, especially when taking into the context of the power and the influence of the United States. It is not a simple, black and white issue. From the article...

"To help alleviate some of the pain, the Indian government in its annual budget, presented on February 1, allowed the manufacturing units in special economic zones (SEZs) to sell a limited portion of their output to domestic buyers at concessional duty rates. Such sales typically attract the high tariff that is imposed on imports of these products, including textiles and leather goods."

A good example of how these policies can help restore and somewhat balance trade and force countries to pay for some of the benefits the USA provides to the world.
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