Thank you

I bleed maroon said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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Keep in mind... The indexes have to buy in immediately, or nearly so, since the market cap puts them into the rare category for immediate indexing. Or that's my understand...

Also and equally important, what is the lock out period for insiders and those whose earlier private placements are converting to common? I think they could start a flood on the market when they're free to start realizing some (well earned) gains.

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From what I read, both of these are no longer accurate. The S&P, at least, has a formula that considers "free float", which reduces the otherwise 2.4% SPCX allocation down to around 0.2-0.5%, so it won't be as rapid a scale-up as you (and I) initially thought.

Also, I read that the seasoning / waiting period that WAS going to be significantly accelerated is no longer going to be waived (but I may have read that here, so take this with a grain of salt).

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My understanding is the S&P isn't happening anytime soon. But I believe inclusion in Nasdaq will be very fast with initial weight at capitalization x float percentage x 3. Once we get to December, when 55% is total float, the Nasdaq will weight it at just the capitalization.

Ag CPA said:

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I was a lot more excited about this IPO until they tossed xAI in.

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That makes it a much better deal. xAI is the backbone of X now. That's why X is currently one of the most trusted go-to sources for accurate, real-time news. GROK fact checking has pretty much replaced community notes. X has like 600 million monthly users. The days of free AI is coming to an end and I expect xAI to be one of the winners.

Like Ellison said recently... the leading large language models, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Llama, have become commodities. The real value lies in integrating these models with proprietary data, positioning companies with exclusive datasets.

They are going to use a rolling lockup expiration instead of the standard 180 day cliff, largely due to the extremely low percentage of float to outstanding. This could also make for an interesting dynamic in the options market as put writers need to be able to access shares to sell short, and betting against this valuation seems to be a popular trade idea that could become very crowded quickly.

SPACEX IPO OVER-SUBSCRIBED AHEAD OF RECORD $75B LISTING

SpaceX has already received orders exceeding available shares in its $75B IPO, suggesting strong demand shortly after marketing began. The offering, priced at $135 per share, could value the company at about $1.8T. Trading…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 5, 2026

Morgan Stanley predicting SpaceX revenue to hit $3.4T by 2040. Got damn.

jh0400 said:

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They are going to use a rolling lockup expiration instead of the standard 180 day cliff, largely due to the extremely low percentage of float to outstanding. This could also make for an interesting dynamic in the options market as put writers need to be able to access shares to sell short, and betting against this valuation seems to be a popular trade idea that could become very crowded quickly.

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I know someone who bought a year or so ago and they have a 180 day lockup, not rolling, to my knowledge. Assume this only applies to some?

Their lock up is almost certainly a rolling release. They can't fully exit their position, but they can sell some after Q2 earnings.

SpaceX’s IPO filing has reveals a staggered insider share lock-up structure instead of one giant unlock all at once. There's no typical 6-month lockup.

Here’s the timeline:
• After Q2 2026 earnings: up to 20% of eligible insider shares unlock
• If the stock trades 30%+ above… pic.twitter.com/OHR0aCDvgU

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 20, 2026

On Schwab, after filling out the COTP, it says the price range is $135-$135. Does that mean if any are allocated to me that I get the shares at $135, or is it possible it can be higher? First IPO I will possibly try to participate in.

Guess I better send them back to the advisor that sold it to them to get clarity on their exit.

khkman22 said:

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On Schwab, after filling out the COTP, it says the price range is $135-$135. Does that mean if any are allocated to me that I get the shares at $135, or is it possible it can be higher? First IPO I will possibly try to participate in.

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Yes. SpaceX has indicated that all shares via retail will sell for the set IPO price to the initial purchaser.

Possible there's some recent entrant restriction, but I think the long term lock ups are for actual in the know people like Musk or Shotwell. Not my money so don't care to look that much deeper, but a lot of the shares outstanding will have a periodic freeing of holdings.

SIAP, but Fidelity dropped their min account balance to $2k to buy in (I think from like $500k lol). If so, good move to potentially bring in new customers.

What I received from Fidelity:

Seems like a dubious investment, but then again, I sat out the Google and Facebook IPOs and look where that got me.

JohnClark929 said:

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Something to consider when buying SpaceX is the amount of new stock issuance this year:

OpenAI - $100B
Google - $85B
Anthropic - $75B
SpaceX - $75B

That is a lot of money needed from investors at once. What do investors sell to buy these new shares?

Bitcoin has taken a hit as money has flowed into AI. What takes a hit as money flows to these investments? Everyone assumes we have demand for this new supply but do we really at this magnitude?

Will be interesting...

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Now add META to the list. They are about to issue stock as well. I'm buying SpaceX at the IPO price but just have to acknowledge lots of new stock shares chasing dollars as 2026 progresses.

If you have FCNTX, then you have SpaceX. 4.3% of FCNTX is SpaceX private

Disclaimer: as of last week

I have also submitted IOI

I will try to get in

I've put in for some shares for the roth IRA.

Submitted my request

I reached out to my Schwab advisor, who suggested if I wanted to get some I should use an IRA that has some free cash in it. That particular account is managed by an outside advisor, who replied as below:
".....
Although, like I have told a few of my interested clients I expect that there will be a digestion period after the shares start trading to add at a lower price since they are expected to IPO at $135/share or 90x P/S multiple. For reference, SpaceX is expected to immediately have more cap value than Tesla which while expensive only has a 15x P/S multiple. Like I said happy to add some for him but I can't imagine that there wouldn't be a lower price to add shares. Please let me know if this works.

Thanks, "

Thoughts on this?
Part of me wants to just get some shares for the novelty of it, but obviously that isn't a good way to manage one's retirement funds. Thanks in advance

Just signed up via my Fidelity account. I guess I need to log in Thursday night and confirm my interest? Definitely an IPO newbie here.

I'm not investing a big amount, and it sounds like it is way oversubscribed. I actually put in for twice the shares I want, and I expect only get a small fraction of that.

That response to me is a drawn out version of "not really sure what happens but price may drop after IPO so may make sense to wait to buy".

No one knows what's going to happen to this stock price in the short term.

What I do know is the stock market often doesn't make traditional sense. GameStop for example never should have traded as high as it did in 2021 based on its booked and fundamentals.

With these retail investors and the hype that spacex is getting, anything can happen.

Agree. Clearly a meme-stock. Anything can happen but I'm buying the IPO as a bet on the cult of musk, low float, investor mania, and Nasdaq index inclusion.

He Who Shall Be Unnamed said:

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I reached out to my Schwab advisor, who suggested if I wanted to get some I should use an IRA that has some free cash in it. That particular account is managed by an outside advisor, who replied as below:
".....
Although, like I have told a few of my interested clients I expect that there will be a digestion period after the shares start trading to add at a lower price since they are expected to IPO at $135/share or 90x P/S multiple. For reference, SpaceX is expected to immediately have more cap value than Tesla which while expensive only has a 15x P/S multiple. Like I said happy to add some for him but I can't imagine that there wouldn't be a lower price to add shares. Please let me know if this works.

Thanks, "

Thoughts on this?
Part of me wants to just get some shares for the novelty of it, but obviously that isn't a good way to manage one's retirement funds. Thanks in advance

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If your Schwab advisor sent that in writing, he or she is an idiot and violated FINRA and SEC rules.

That wasn't from my Schwab advisor. He isn't offering me any advice. It's from an affiliated outside advisor (Independent Registered Investment Advisor who uses Schwab as a custodian). Sorry if what I wrote wasn't clear.

SpaceX has just officially unveiled its AI1 satellite, the first generation of its AI satellite.

Overall Specs:
• 150 kW peak compute payload
• 120 kW average compute payload
• 70 kW per ton
• Compute provider interchangeable

Dimensions:
• Wingspan: 70 meters
• Deployed… https://t.co/KB0WGfp6t5 pic.twitter.com/qR6wEvs2da

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 8, 2026

hph6203 said:

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SpaceX has just officially unveiled its AI1 satellite, the first generation of its AI satellite.

Overall Specs:
• 150 kW peak compute payload
• 120 kW average compute payload
• 70 kW per ton
• Compute provider interchangeable

Dimensions:
• Wingspan: 70 meters
• Deployed… https://t.co/KB0WGfp6t5 pic.twitter.com/qR6wEvs2da

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) June 8, 2026

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We've seen how this ends.

My main interest in SpaceX is that they are going to put data centers in space. I think that in 5 years they will have as much capacity for AI from data centers in space as we do here. Just about the same time the micro nuclear reactors go online which will solve the power supply issue here in America.

He Who Shall Be Unnamed said:

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That wasn't from my Schwab advisor. He isn't offering me any advice. It's from an affiliated outside advisor (Independent Registered Investment Advisor who uses Schwab as a custodian). Sorry if what I wrote wasn't clear.

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The rules apply to all registered advisors.

Bocephus said:

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My main interest in SpaceX is that they are going to put data centers in space. I think that in 5 years they will have as much capacity for AI from data centers in space as we do here. Just about the same time the micro nuclear reactors go online which will solve the power supply issue here in America.

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I think you're a bit optimistic on how fast TerraFab can get up and running. There is no way Nvidia can supply that many systems.

I just signed up on Fidelity after clicking through those 7 prospectus

no idea if I even did it correctly- I would imagine if I qualify for shares I will get an "alert" to my email

How many shares are your going for? I assume if we "win" some shares we we can just sell some other stock to pay for it? I do not want to sell today and not get awarded any shares. On Fidelity as well.