Bucky on some strategy and analytics

1,967 Views | 12 Replies | Last: 15 days ago by bobinator
bobinator
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AG
I changed my mind and I'm starting another new thread because there were a couple of interesting things in Bucky's basketball hour.

  • He said "Tie game, one timeout, coming down the floor. In these situations, if you have the players you want on the floor, every mathematical model has showed you you should not to call a timeout here. You will score more likely than not in a tie game, if they tie it up and you have the ball, if you don't let them set their defense up. If you're down one you should call a timeout there." Said when you call a timeout, you're odds or scoring are below 40%, which is also why it's so popular to call timeout after you score to tie a game up as well. Thought that was interesting because I've never heard a coach actually reference some kind of large statistical study on that, seems like most of them kind of make that decision on vibes.
  • Other thing that I mentioned in the other thread is that they weren't sure exactly how the rules were going to work at the end there on a possible review. At 1.1 seconds, SMU threw an inbounds pass that went the length of the court. We touched it and the clock should have run out (and Bucky said they knew that on the sidelines, which also means we can look at game video on the bench which I didn't know they could do now also.) But they weren't sure if they called a timeout there to set up an inbounds play if the officials would be able to go review it. The rule is supposed to be that out-of-bounds calls can only be reviewed if they're challenged, but SMU was out of timeouts. Bucky said he's wondered if a team could challenge a call without a timeout and just take a technical foul if they're wrong. (Though my guess is no, they couldn't do that, SMU would have had to have a timeout to initiate the challenge process.) But this situation is exactly the one I've been talking about that makes the new challenge rules so dumb. SMU could have lost the game there on an obviously wrong call because they didn't keep a timeout in their back pocket just in case the refs screw something up.
2nd Generation Ag
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He says openly that he runs an NBA offfense. I would have liked to see him spread the floor in the SMU game and force the seven footer to guard someone on the perimeter.

That would have been a way to take him out of the game and get some easy looks . He hiurt us inside
EO718
bobinator
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AG
The problem with that is to put a true 5 perimeter lineup in the game we have to take Agee out and then we immediately become a terrible rebounding team, especially on offense, in a game where we're shooting like 35% from the floor and 23% from beyond the arc. We'd also immediately become a very bad interior defensive team with Agee out of the game, and we're not a good one to start with.

I feel like we found something that worked on offense, spread them out and attack the basket and make that big dude have to help and then find the open guy when he does, but we got away from it in the last couple minutes of the game.
AggieEyes
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AG
He's a very good and passionate poker player.

I doubt any coach we play knows the "probabilities" of the game better than Bucky.
halfastros81
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AG
I like the fact that he had an answer . He's smart and experienced for his age albeit not at this level. Unfortunately he has roster deficiencies that couldn't be addressed in the short period of time he had and he just has to do with what he has this year . I bet he beefs up the interior issues in the offseason.

Seems to have the right drive to succeed at any level
Method Man
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I wanna know why Hill was in and Lane was out.
wurmhole
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AG
Yeah, I get that Hill was the hoss for the whole game but from a strengths/weaknesses standpoint, Lane seems like the move there.
bobinator
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AG
He did say he probably left Lane on the bench too long
Method Man
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Well then I agree.
Mr.Milkshake
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Thanks for posting this. Interesting info. Now I wanna know the consultants selling these models
Zigzig
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Bobinator, thanks for sharing this. I typically don't listen to weekly show so I appreciate you summarizing it for folks like me.
AgEfan
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bobinator said:

I changed my mind and I'm starting another new thread because there were a couple of interesting things in Bucky's basketball hour.

  • He said "Tie game, one timeout, coming down the floor. In these situations, if you have the players you want on the floor, every mathematical model has showed you you should not to call a timeout here.


I don't have a problem not calling a timeout there. But when we got the ball back with 1.1 second left and you had a dead ball, I think you probably call a timeout there, right? I was surprised we didn't call a timeout and draw up something there
bobinator
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AG
That goes to the second one, they weren't entirely sure on how the new rule worked there and thought if they called timeout that they might be able to review it
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