Updated Selection Sunday 2:00 PM
Locks
1 seeds
1. Duke (ACC) #1 overall seed
2. Michigan (Big 10)
3. Arizona (Big 12)
4. Florida
2 seeds
5. Houston
6. UConn
7. Iowa State
8. Purdue
3 seeds
9. Michigan State
10. Illinois
11. Gonzaga (West Coast)
12. Vanderbilt
4 seeds
13. Nebraska
14. Virginia
15. Alabama
16. Kansas
5 seeds
17. Arkansas (SEC)
18. St. John's (Big East)
19. Texas Tech
20. Wisconsin
6 seeds
21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. North Carolina
24. BYU
7 seeds
25. Kentucky
26. Miami
27. UCLA
28. St. Mary's
8 seeds
29. Clemson
30. Ohio State
31. Utah State (Mountain West)
32. Villanova
9 seeds
33. Georgia
----A&M ceiling-----
34. TCU 34.7 resume avg. 46.3 Quality. What will matter more to this committee in terms of seeding?
35. Iowa Resume Avg 43. Quality 27 . 2 quad 3 losses. Just 3-9 vs quad 1.
36. Texas A&M Subpar showing in the SECT but still solidly in with metrics across the board that suggest a 9 or 10 seed incoming. 42 resume avg (40 WAB), 37 quality avg.
10 seeds
37. Santa Clara Not much on the resume other than 2 wins over St. Mary's. 38.7 Resume Avg, 37.3 quality.
38. Saint Louis Lost to Dayton in a wild game in the semis. Should still be solidly in the tournament and they have a profile that is very close to A&M. Will the committee consider that result when they go back through to scrub and reseed? We will find out on Sunday…Also, how much does KPI weigh in the criteria this year? 27 vs. A&M's 53. A&M has a slight advantage in each of the other 5 metrics.
39. UCF Resume Avg 34, quality 56.3 Resume means they are solidly a lock but the quality likely keeps them as a 10 seed ceiling.
40. NC State - lost 7 of their final 9. WAB 43, Resume Avg 40.3, quality 36.3 (Waiting on Selection Sunday)
11 seeds
41. VCU (Atlantic 10) Won the auto bid to make the committee's job easy. They would have been in my field regardless but Dayton not getting this spot saves either SMU or Texas and keeps them in.
-------The Bubble. 4 at large spots left for 7 teams----------
LAST 4 in
42. Miami (OH) Well this exact scenario is why I was hesitant to make their lock status official. It is still really hard to imagine a team that went 31-0 in the regular season not getting in, especially with how bad the bubble is but losing to the #8 seed and outside the NET 200 UMass combined with predictive numbers now in the 90s at least warrants a conversation. Non conf SOS was #354. That said, even after that loss, the WAB is 38, resume avg 39.7. Quality avg is 91 yikes.
-----Floor for A&M ----reasonable minds could convince themselves this is where A&M currently sits based on the metrics----
43. Missouri - Their poor predictive metrics likely will hurt their seeding, but the resume numbers are solid enough that they should be in the field.
-------Sizable gap to the teams that are actually in danger---
44. Texas Lost 5 of their last 6 to wind up in dangerous territory sitting and watching the rest of the bubble. They do have 7 quad 1 wins (6-0 vs quad 1B). Outside of the quad1B its less than impressive including 1-9 vs quad 1A, 1-4 vs quad 2 and a quad 3 loss. What felt like a bubbly resume that was in danger of going to Dayton now feels like a Dayton as the best case scenario with the metrics slipping from the low 40s to mid 40s and right at the cut line. WAB is 45.
45. SMU Lost 4 in a row to end the regular season and an early exit in the ACC tournament, getting by Syracuse and losing to Louisville. Not a bad loss like some of their ACC counterparts but they fail on the chance to improve their standing and are now in the very precarious position of needing to avoid bid thieves. WAB of 48, just 9-13 against Q1 and Q2. As of now I feel confident they are in but that could change depending on other results the next 48 hours.
--------Bubble Bursts Here-------------------
Projected Auto Bids
46. South Florida (American) 3/14 (vs. Wichita State) Wichita State probably SHOULD be a 12, however given the time of the game and the laziness of the committee I am now projecting the winner of this game will be the 11 no matter what.
12 Seeds
47. McNeese State (Southland)
48. Akron (MAC)
49. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
50. High Point (Big South)
13 Seeds
51. Hofstra (Coastal)
52. California Baptist (WAC)
53. Hawaii (Big West)
54. North Dakota St. (Summit)
14 Seeds
55. Troy (Sun Belt)
56. Wright State (Horizon)
57. Penn (Ivy)
58. Kennesaw State (Conference USA)
15 Seeds
59. UMBC (America East)
60. Idaho (Big Sky)
61. Tennessee State (Ohio Valley)
62. Furman (Southern)
16 Seeds
63. Long Island (Northeast)
64. Queens (Atlantic Sun)
Last 4 Auto bids in (Play in game)
65. Siena (Metro Atlantic)
66. Howard (Mid-Eastern)
67. Lehigh (Patriot)
68. Prairie View A&M (SWAC)
-----------First 3 Out-------------
69. Auburn No team has ever been selected as an at large with 16 losses. The bid stolen from the MAC may be what prevented that bit of history.
70. San Diego State The run through the MWC comes up just short. Almost certainly needed the auto bid. Going into the game the WAB had moved up to 45 but their profile is still pretty clearly behind SMU, Texas and Auburn.
71. Oklahoma Frantic end to the season to try to revive a mid 70s WAB and get in contention will fall just short. This would have been an interesting test case on how much if any the committee pays attention to conference tournaments but with the loss to Arkansas there just isn't enough here to put them in the field. On the plus side they have 5 quad 1 wins, 0 bad losses. Resume avg 52, Quality 40.7.
Locked this week:
Iowa (3/11)
UCF (3/11)
Saint Louis (3/13)
Santa Clara (3/14) With minimal bid stealers and others passing them, they are now safe
NC State (3/14) Lack of bid stealers move them to lock status
Eliminated this week:
Stanford (3/10) No metrics in the top 45, 4 bad losses, quality/predictive in the 60s, some bubble watches will keep them around, not here.
Cincinnati (3/11)
Cal (3/11)
Boise State (3/11)
Virginia Tech (3/12) With at least 1 bid stolen this week, they no longer have a viable path
New Mexico (3/14) Any at large required them to beat SDSU and they failed
South Florida (3/15) Metrics have not improved that would allow for any at large bid to be viable at all.
Indiana (3/15) No valid argument can be made for inclusion
What to watch
Sunday
2:15 ESPN AAC Wichita State vs. South Florida USF is an 11 if they win and 1st 8 out with a loss. WSU probably should be a 12 with a win but based on past committee behavior I am projecting the winner of this game will be an 11 seed regardless of who it is.
2:30 CBS Purdue vs. Michigan Michigan is a 1 seed and overall #2 regardless of win or loss. Purdue is a 2 regardless of the result.
Locks
1 seeds
1. Duke (ACC) #1 overall seed
2. Michigan (Big 10)
3. Arizona (Big 12)
4. Florida
2 seeds
5. Houston
6. UConn
7. Iowa State
8. Purdue
3 seeds
9. Michigan State
10. Illinois
11. Gonzaga (West Coast)
12. Vanderbilt
4 seeds
13. Nebraska
14. Virginia
15. Alabama
16. Kansas
5 seeds
17. Arkansas (SEC)
18. St. John's (Big East)
19. Texas Tech
20. Wisconsin
6 seeds
21. Tennessee
22. Louisville
23. North Carolina
24. BYU
7 seeds
25. Kentucky
26. Miami
27. UCLA
28. St. Mary's
8 seeds
29. Clemson
30. Ohio State
31. Utah State (Mountain West)
32. Villanova
9 seeds
33. Georgia
----A&M ceiling-----
34. TCU 34.7 resume avg. 46.3 Quality. What will matter more to this committee in terms of seeding?
35. Iowa Resume Avg 43. Quality 27 . 2 quad 3 losses. Just 3-9 vs quad 1.
36. Texas A&M Subpar showing in the SECT but still solidly in with metrics across the board that suggest a 9 or 10 seed incoming. 42 resume avg (40 WAB), 37 quality avg.
10 seeds
37. Santa Clara Not much on the resume other than 2 wins over St. Mary's. 38.7 Resume Avg, 37.3 quality.
38. Saint Louis Lost to Dayton in a wild game in the semis. Should still be solidly in the tournament and they have a profile that is very close to A&M. Will the committee consider that result when they go back through to scrub and reseed? We will find out on Sunday…Also, how much does KPI weigh in the criteria this year? 27 vs. A&M's 53. A&M has a slight advantage in each of the other 5 metrics.
39. UCF Resume Avg 34, quality 56.3 Resume means they are solidly a lock but the quality likely keeps them as a 10 seed ceiling.
40. NC State - lost 7 of their final 9. WAB 43, Resume Avg 40.3, quality 36.3 (Waiting on Selection Sunday)
11 seeds
41. VCU (Atlantic 10) Won the auto bid to make the committee's job easy. They would have been in my field regardless but Dayton not getting this spot saves either SMU or Texas and keeps them in.
-------The Bubble. 4 at large spots left for 7 teams----------
LAST 4 in
42. Miami (OH) Well this exact scenario is why I was hesitant to make their lock status official. It is still really hard to imagine a team that went 31-0 in the regular season not getting in, especially with how bad the bubble is but losing to the #8 seed and outside the NET 200 UMass combined with predictive numbers now in the 90s at least warrants a conversation. Non conf SOS was #354. That said, even after that loss, the WAB is 38, resume avg 39.7. Quality avg is 91 yikes.
-----Floor for A&M ----reasonable minds could convince themselves this is where A&M currently sits based on the metrics----
43. Missouri - Their poor predictive metrics likely will hurt their seeding, but the resume numbers are solid enough that they should be in the field.
-------Sizable gap to the teams that are actually in danger---
44. Texas Lost 5 of their last 6 to wind up in dangerous territory sitting and watching the rest of the bubble. They do have 7 quad 1 wins (6-0 vs quad 1B). Outside of the quad1B its less than impressive including 1-9 vs quad 1A, 1-4 vs quad 2 and a quad 3 loss. What felt like a bubbly resume that was in danger of going to Dayton now feels like a Dayton as the best case scenario with the metrics slipping from the low 40s to mid 40s and right at the cut line. WAB is 45.
45. SMU Lost 4 in a row to end the regular season and an early exit in the ACC tournament, getting by Syracuse and losing to Louisville. Not a bad loss like some of their ACC counterparts but they fail on the chance to improve their standing and are now in the very precarious position of needing to avoid bid thieves. WAB of 48, just 9-13 against Q1 and Q2. As of now I feel confident they are in but that could change depending on other results the next 48 hours.
--------Bubble Bursts Here-------------------
Projected Auto Bids
46. South Florida (American) 3/14 (vs. Wichita State) Wichita State probably SHOULD be a 12, however given the time of the game and the laziness of the committee I am now projecting the winner of this game will be the 11 no matter what.
12 Seeds
47. McNeese State (Southland)
48. Akron (MAC)
49. Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
50. High Point (Big South)
13 Seeds
51. Hofstra (Coastal)
52. California Baptist (WAC)
53. Hawaii (Big West)
54. North Dakota St. (Summit)
14 Seeds
55. Troy (Sun Belt)
56. Wright State (Horizon)
57. Penn (Ivy)
58. Kennesaw State (Conference USA)
15 Seeds
59. UMBC (America East)
60. Idaho (Big Sky)
61. Tennessee State (Ohio Valley)
62. Furman (Southern)
16 Seeds
63. Long Island (Northeast)
64. Queens (Atlantic Sun)
Last 4 Auto bids in (Play in game)
65. Siena (Metro Atlantic)
66. Howard (Mid-Eastern)
67. Lehigh (Patriot)
68. Prairie View A&M (SWAC)
-----------First 3 Out-------------
69. Auburn No team has ever been selected as an at large with 16 losses. The bid stolen from the MAC may be what prevented that bit of history.
70. San Diego State The run through the MWC comes up just short. Almost certainly needed the auto bid. Going into the game the WAB had moved up to 45 but their profile is still pretty clearly behind SMU, Texas and Auburn.
71. Oklahoma Frantic end to the season to try to revive a mid 70s WAB and get in contention will fall just short. This would have been an interesting test case on how much if any the committee pays attention to conference tournaments but with the loss to Arkansas there just isn't enough here to put them in the field. On the plus side they have 5 quad 1 wins, 0 bad losses. Resume avg 52, Quality 40.7.
Locked this week:
Iowa (3/11)
UCF (3/11)
Saint Louis (3/13)
Santa Clara (3/14) With minimal bid stealers and others passing them, they are now safe
NC State (3/14) Lack of bid stealers move them to lock status
Eliminated this week:
Stanford (3/10) No metrics in the top 45, 4 bad losses, quality/predictive in the 60s, some bubble watches will keep them around, not here.
Cincinnati (3/11)
Cal (3/11)
Boise State (3/11)
Virginia Tech (3/12) With at least 1 bid stolen this week, they no longer have a viable path
New Mexico (3/14) Any at large required them to beat SDSU and they failed
South Florida (3/15) Metrics have not improved that would allow for any at large bid to be viable at all.
Indiana (3/15) No valid argument can be made for inclusion
What to watch
Sunday
2:15 ESPN AAC Wichita State vs. South Florida USF is an 11 if they win and 1st 8 out with a loss. WSU probably should be a 12 with a win but based on past committee behavior I am projecting the winner of this game will be an 11 seed regardless of who it is.
2:30 CBS Purdue vs. Michigan Michigan is a 1 seed and overall #2 regardless of win or loss. Purdue is a 2 regardless of the result.
