Why is Grahovic leading off? To me he's a 3-4. Why doesn't TK lead off? Help me Obi Wan.
Grahovic at lead off
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Last: 14 min ago by TxA&Mhunter
Agdorm12 said:
Why is Grahovic leading off? To me he's a 3-4. Why doesn't TK lead off? Help me Obi Wan.
I don't understand it either. Can someone explain the logic?
New baseball. Analytics say you want your best hitters to get more at bats. Also you put your home run hitters along with doubles hitters high in the line up in order to score runs. The philosophy works if you have singles hitters low in the lineup and that the only way to get them home is with a slugger at the top who can hit home runs or gappers.It is why Aaron Judge hits 2nd. I thnk it is odd but analytics say you score more runs with runners who are at 2nd or 3rd more then if they are at 1st on a single. It is why people don't just bunt or go the other way on shifts. Numbers say singles aren't valuable which is why you value power and velocity over average now
It's just stupid it should be TK at leadoff or 9. Hell put Hacopian he at least makes contact. Duer really disappointed last night I thought he was like Moss, boy was I wrong Moss maybe struck out 4 times in two years. We've got learn how to put the ****ing ball in play.
a.froman said:
New baseball. Analytics say you want your best hitters to get more at bats. Also you put your home run hitters along with doubles hitters high in the line up in order to score runs. The philosophy works if you have singles hitters low in the lineup and that the only way to get them home is with a slugger at the top who can hit home runs or gappers.It is why Aaron Judge hits 2nd. I thnk it is odd but analytics say you score more runs with runners who are at 2nd or 3rd more then if they are at 1st on a single. It is why people don't just bunt or go the other way on shifts. Numbers say singles aren't valuable which is why you value power and velocity over average now
That all makes sense, but TK gets on base and his presence seems to bring energy and cause havoc for the opposing pitcher.
TK and Jason have both made it on base every game, so let's put them at the END of the lineup so they bat the LEAST. Yes, makes sense
It is funny how one player can have a poor night at the plate and yet should be our leadoff hitter and another has a poor night and all the previous good games at the plate are the aberration.
I get it. I am old school but if our 8-9 guy is on then TK probably can't drive them home from 1st. Also in a tight game late in the innings you want guys who can drive it to get into scoring position . Much more valuable with that 5th at bat to have a double, triple or home run instead of a single and then wasting an out bunting him over to 2nd
Because Earley thinks he's smarter than everyone else.Agdorm12 said:
Why is Grahovic leading off? To me he's a 3-4. Why doesn't TK lead off? Help me Obi Wan.
Here's the problem... Look at Grahovacs damage rate on breaking balls vs fastballs. He struggles with quality breaking balls (as do most). TK getting on base in front of GG will get him more fastballs. It's pretty freaking simple.a.froman said:
New baseball. Analytics say you want your best hitters to get more at bats. Also you put your home run hitters along with doubles hitters high in the line up in order to score runs. The philosophy works if you have singles hitters low in the lineup and that the only way to get them home is with a slugger at the top who can hit home runs or gappers.It is why Aaron Judge hits 2nd. I thnk it is odd but analytics say you score more runs with runners who are at 2nd or 3rd more then if they are at 1st on a single. It is why people don't just bunt or go the other way on shifts. Numbers say singles aren't valuable which is why you value power and velocity over average now
I'm not a baseball guru but I told my wife the same thing last night. If GG is like third in the lineup and has people on base he's bound to see more fast balls because they have to go at him, which is his strength.
In theory that makes sense but why would you give Gavin a chance to drive in runs with fastballs with runners on? I would personally give him more fastballs with no one on because he can't do as much damage.
The pitch selection was not good either. Coaches failed hard in game one.
With TK's batting average, OBP, and speed, he should be leading off.
I hear you and understand you, but that's not what longterm statistics say. Baseball has shifted in college over the last 5-8 years. Pitchers come in ready Throw sliders or breaking pitches in any count regardless of men on base.
TK is a natural at leadoff.
And it seems like everybody who comes after him relaxes a little bit when he's in that position.
Ymmv
And it seems like everybody who comes after him relaxes a little bit when he's in that position.
Ymmv
still fine. They do that and Kiel will steal 2 bags and a ball pretty much anywhere in play scores him.TxA&Mhunter said:
I hear you and understand you, but that's not what longterm statistics say. Baseball has shifted in college over the last 5-8 years. Pitchers come in ready Throw sliders or breaking pitches in any count regardless of men on base.
How many stolen bases did he have last year? Or so far this year?
It's because our coach isn't any good. We played in a national championship series two years ago and we're now being used as training ground for someone in over their head.Agdorm12 said:
Why is Grahovic leading off? To me he's a 3-4. Why doesn't TK lead off? Help me Obi Wan.
This is just another example of Earley's lack of feel for the game. It is glaring with how he handles when to pull pitchers also. Analytics is a tool to use, it's not gospel. If analytics says your best hitter should bat first, by what metric is that the case? Could argue for Sorrell or Halcopian (sp?). Maybe obp is your metric - so then it should be bear because he walks and gets hbp? TK is a leadoff hitter for this team - it just seems natural. Honestly. I think Sorrell and Halcopian are better that GG, so I'd have Sorrell in 2 hole, then halc, then gg, then Jordan.
Sean98 said:Here's the problem... Look at Grahovacs damage rate on breaking balls vs fastballs. He struggles with quality breaking balls (as do most). TK getting on base in front of GG will get him more fastballs. It's pretty freaking simple.a.froman said:
New baseball. Analytics say you want your best hitters to get more at bats. Also you put your home run hitters along with doubles hitters high in the line up in order to score runs. The philosophy works if you have singles hitters low in the lineup and that the only way to get them home is with a slugger at the top who can hit home runs or gappers.It is why Aaron Judge hits 2nd. I thnk it is odd but analytics say you score more runs with runners who are at 2nd or 3rd more then if they are at 1st on a single. It is why people don't just bunt or go the other way on shifts. Numbers say singles aren't valuable which is why you value power and velocity over average now
Earley is not capable of second order thinking.
Let's be honest, you may not like Coach E, He has more baseball experience than most anyone posting here. For you to pretend like he doesn't only shows how ignorant you are.
If you want to have a convo like those Above that's one thing, but you want to just throw rocks then go to another thread.
If you want to have a convo like those Above that's one thing, but you want to just throw rocks then go to another thread.
All our coaches are stupid. Spreadsheet updated…
Agreed he has more experience. And obviously way more knowledge. But he has demonstrated his inability to manage a game and a team. I don't know how else to explain a coach taking a #1 team and missing the tourney. You can say he's smarter than me. Obviously. My career isn't in baseball coaching.
I didn't say anything personal about Earley. Blunt, but not personal. This thread was specifically about a consistent coaching choice, and I agree with the poster who says TK getting on base would limit Grahovac breaking pitches. And that's the nuanced thought I haven't seen demonstrated. Sure I haven't had conversations with him, but whatever his reasoning has been, it hasn't worked.
EDIT
I'll stop posting in this thread. I don't want to derail further.
I didn't say anything personal about Earley. Blunt, but not personal. This thread was specifically about a consistent coaching choice, and I agree with the poster who says TK getting on base would limit Grahovac breaking pitches. And that's the nuanced thought I haven't seen demonstrated. Sure I haven't had conversations with him, but whatever his reasoning has been, it hasn't worked.
EDIT
I'll stop posting in this thread. I don't want to derail further.
It's our fans' consistent go to when they want an excuse to quit on our teams.
Calling someone "not capable of secondorder thinking" can land as pretty dismissive, especially if the person being judged actually has deep expertise in the subject at hand. It's not just a critique of their choice it's a critique of their cognitive ability, which is a much more personal jab
Modern lineup construction is way more studied than people think. Sabermetrics, runexpectancy tables, and thousands of lineup simulations all point to the same thing: your best hitters should bat 1st, 2nd are your best and 3rd is your all around hit guy, with 4th the hammer.
The #1 and #2 spots get the most plate appearances over a season around 2040 more than the #3 hitter. More PA = more value. HighOBP hitters in the top two spots increase expected runs by 1020 runs per season in simulation models.
The #4 hitter gets the most RBI opportunities, so your best power bat belongs there.
The old idea that the #3 hitter should be your best guy doesn't hold up it's actually one of the least leveraged spots in the top half of the order. Stacking your best hitters early and close together isn't a "nerd theory." It's what every runexpectancy model, optimizer, and modern front office converges on. It just scores more runs.
We have basically two different lineups in our batting order and it's hard to handle for any pitcher. That's why Tk is where he is.
Also TK has not show the propensity to be bag thief in college yet, He has 4 total in two years.
Modern lineup construction is way more studied than people think. Sabermetrics, runexpectancy tables, and thousands of lineup simulations all point to the same thing: your best hitters should bat 1st, 2nd are your best and 3rd is your all around hit guy, with 4th the hammer.
The #1 and #2 spots get the most plate appearances over a season around 2040 more than the #3 hitter. More PA = more value. HighOBP hitters in the top two spots increase expected runs by 1020 runs per season in simulation models.
The #4 hitter gets the most RBI opportunities, so your best power bat belongs there.
The old idea that the #3 hitter should be your best guy doesn't hold up it's actually one of the least leveraged spots in the top half of the order. Stacking your best hitters early and close together isn't a "nerd theory." It's what every runexpectancy model, optimizer, and modern front office converges on. It just scores more runs.
We have basically two different lineups in our batting order and it's hard to handle for any pitcher. That's why Tk is where he is.
Also TK has not show the propensity to be bag thief in college yet, He has 4 total in two years.
We played in a national championship with Grahovac leading off.
TxA&Mhunter said:
Also TK has not show the propensity to be bag thief in college yet, He has 4 total in two years.
TK stolen bases
2025: 12 of 13
2026: 6 of 7
Surely I am missing something?
TK is a natural lead off hitter.
Over .500 obp
Speed
6-7 sb
You want him on so 2,3,4 can bring him around.
He looks more comfortable leading off also.
Over .500 obp
Speed
6-7 sb
You want him on so 2,3,4 can bring him around.
He looks more comfortable leading off also.
My apologies was looking for sec stats and my memory isn't as good as it should be! so I'll Have to dig for the actual Numbers and see if I can find them.
RED AG 98 said:TxA&Mhunter said:
Also TK has not show the propensity to be bag thief in college yet, He has 4 total in two years.
TK stolen bases
2025: 12 of 13
2026: 6 of 7
Surely I am missing something?
You're not. Not sure what the hell other dude is thinking of, because he is absolutely mistaken.
greg.w.h said:
It's our fans' consistent go to when they want an excuse to quit on our teams.
Fans can be critical and not quit on the team. In alot of cases it shows more passion than the fans just blindly following. Not sure why any negative comment immediately receives comments like this. It's a discussion board for "discussion".
No worries it happens to the best of us.
TK batting 7th doesn't mean he's not a leadoff type. It means the lineup is deep enough that he becomes a second leadoff a speed/OBP guy who sets the table for 123 when the order turns over. Modern analytics actually love this setup.
The 7891 sequence becomes a scoring engine
Speed at the bottom forces pitchers into the stretch, which increases mistakes It creates more RISP opportunities for the top of the order It raises the OBP floor of the bottom third, which is one of the biggest predictors of total runs… This is exactly how deep lineups maximize run expectancy.
The 7891 sequence becomes a scoring engine
Speed at the bottom forces pitchers into the stretch, which increases mistakes It creates more RISP opportunities for the top of the order It raises the OBP floor of the bottom third, which is one of the biggest predictors of total runs… This is exactly how deep lineups maximize run expectancy.
We scored plenty yesterday and offense was "effective" early. I use quotes because we weren't smashing the cover off the ball, but we were disciplined at the plate and walked a ton. I think 7 BBs in the first 3 innings and finished with a total of 11.
The difference is that we didn't hit the ball well and especially not with 2 strikes. We had 13 Ks to go along with those walks and only 6 hits.
By contrast OU was killer with 2 strikes and put the ball in play. They finished with 13 H, 4 BB and 5 K. That was the ballgame.
The difference is that we didn't hit the ball well and especially not with 2 strikes. We had 13 Ks to go along with those walks and only 6 hits.
By contrast OU was killer with 2 strikes and put the ball in play. They finished with 13 H, 4 BB and 5 K. That was the ballgame.
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