NCAA Guidance on Game Cancellations

3,150 Views | 32 Replies | Last: 6 days ago by JamiesChallengeCard
AGSmith
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AG
Apologies if this has been discussed, but I saw this earlier today on X…

Wabs
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AG
Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.
Luigi Vampa
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AGSmith said:

Apologies if this has been discussed, but I saw this earlier today on X…



Love it! Now waiting to see them make an example of someone.
missinAggieland
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Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.


This!
Luke The Drifter
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Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.


I could not disagree more. Defeats the purpose of Strength of Schedule. If this is the case, then you'll have a bunch of northern and lesser conference schools stacking wins against SWAC-type teams while the SEC and ACC are beating each other to death.

Now, I can see that a win over someone like Prairie View could be less punitive than it currently is...but guaranteeing you won't drop because you beat Bethune-Cookman or Quinnipiac or Cornell is a terrible model.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Sq 17
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Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team
Luke The Drifter
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Sq 17 said:

Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team



If you exclude the worst 3 wins, shouldn't you also exclude the best 3 wins as well?

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
LB12MEEN
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Nothing will be done this season. You cannot drop a new rule the first part of May at the very end of the season.
Gig ‘Em Baby!
Sq 17
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No because the goal is to prevent teams from cancelling bad RPI games late in the year
traveler1
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AG
If committee deems a cancellation to be not because of inclement weather, they can just adjust the formula to show that game as a forfeit (loss). No benefit to cancel that way.
SchizoAg
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Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.

The intuitively obvious solution that always gets thrown out there. Unfortunately, when you think about it, it is logically incoherent.
nereus
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Luke The Drifter said:

Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.


I could not disagree more. Defeats the purpose of Strength of Schedule. If this is the case, then you'll have a bunch of northern and lesser conference schools stacking wins against SWAC-type teams while the SEC and ACC are beating each other to death.

Now, I can see that a win over someone like Prairie View could be less punitive than it currently is...but guaranteeing you won't drop because you beat Bethune-Cookman or Quinnipiac or Cornell is a terrible model.

Going 40-16 is harder than going 39-16 no matter how bad that additional opponent is. It might not be much harder if that opponent is really bad, but it certainly isn't easier.

Beating a bad opponent and dropping (in ranking relative to other teams) while other teams are playing better opponents makes sense. But your raw score dropping just because you played a bad opponent doesn't. Beating a bad opponent should always be better than not playing at all (even if by only a really small amount) because playing an extra game (no matter who it is against) is harder than not playing that extra game.

One of the problems with RPI (and the reason this is an issue) is just playing a bad team (even if you win) hurts you more than not playing. They should fix the calculation so that isn't true and that will stop these cancelations.
Farmer1906
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Luke The Drifter said:

Sq 17 said:

Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team



If you exclude the worst 3 wins, shouldn't you also exclude the best 3 wins as well?



I am not following the logic on this. What does this solve or try to do?

RPI is a tool used by the selection committee to assist in seeding. Tweaking the formula to exclude the bottom % of games (wins) helps solve the problem of canceling games or not scheduling teams that make sense geographically.

I would take it a step further and weigh weekend series results over midweek games.

And now that teams are gaming the system by adding a bunch of road games, I'd lessen their weight as well.
Luke The Drifter
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Farmer1906 said:

Luke The Drifter said:

Sq 17 said:

Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team



If you exclude the worst 3 wins, shouldn't you also exclude the best 3 wins as well?



I am not following the logic on this. What does this solve or try to do?

RPI is a tool used by the selection committee to assist in seeding. Tweaking the formula to exclude the bottom % of games (wins) helps solve the problem of canceling games or not scheduling teams that make sense geographically.

I would take it a step further and weigh weekend series results over midweek games.

And now that teams are gaming the system by adding a bunch of road games, I'd lessen their weight as well.


Statistical analysis - eliminate the outliers on both sides of the data set.

But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Farmer1906
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Luke The Drifter said:

Farmer1906 said:

Luke The Drifter said:

Sq 17 said:

Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team



If you exclude the worst 3 wins, shouldn't you also exclude the best 3 wins as well?



I am not following the logic on this. What does this solve or try to do?

RPI is a tool used by the selection committee to assist in seeding. Tweaking the formula to exclude the bottom % of games (wins) helps solve the problem of canceling games or not scheduling teams that make sense geographically.

I would take it a step further and weigh weekend series results over midweek games.

And now that teams are gaming the system by adding a bunch of road games, I'd lessen their weight as well.


Statistical analysis - eliminate the outliers on both sides of the data set.




But what if they're not outliers?
McInnis
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Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.


So if you're no. 10 and beat no. 1, and on the same night the no. 9 team beats no. 300, you're saying that you can't move up? That wouldn't work very well.
Joe Deertay
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Who canceled games?
nereus
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McInnis said:

Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.


So if you're no. 10 and beat no. 1, and on the same night the no. 9 team beats no. 300, you're saying that you can't move up? That wouldn't work very well.

There is a raw RPI number and they use that number to rank every team by RPI. If someone's raw RPI goes up because they beat a top team while yours didn't go up much because you beat a terrible team, that makes sense. That can move their raw RPI above yours which gives them a better RPI rank. Jumping someone in RPI rank because you beat better teams makes sense.

The issue is the raw RPI drops by playing really bad teams. It means you drop even if no one else plays a game that day. If two teams play the exact same schedule and win/lose the exact same games except for one team playing an extra game against an RPI 300 team....they shouldn't be punished for playing that extra game. RPI currently punishes them for that and that is why teams are dropping these games. In the current system, it is better to not play a game at all than to play against a really bad team.
00
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AG
We did two years ago by POS to protect our RPI.
Luke The Drifter
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00 said:

We did two years ago by POS to protect our RPI.


It's happened a few times this year as well. #39 Virginia Tech canceled a game with #175 Marshall scheduled for tomorrow.
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Luke The Drifter
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AG
Kentucky vs . Northern Kentucky canceled - oh…and UK is 31 in the RPI while UNK is 276.

https://ukathletics.com/news/2026/05/11/schedule-change-tuesday-night-game-vs-nku-cancelled/
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
missinAggieland
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Joe Deertay said:

Who canceled games?


Look at the ESPN app. Several games scheduled on Tuesday were cancelled. It happens every year.
Luke The Drifter
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Per D1Baseball, games canceled this week include…

#229 UMass-Lowell at #28 Boston College
#40 Virginia Tech at #175 Marshall
#170 Bethune-Cookman at #30 Central Florida
#50 Arizona State at #212 Grant Canyon
But those who hope in the LORD will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles; they will run and not grow weary, they will walk and not be faint. Isaiah 40:31 (NIV)
Lady Aravis
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And that's this week alone. Doesn't include all the games cancelled the last 2-3 weeks.
greg.w.h
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AG
The guidance is good but the incentive wasn't addressed.
TXAggie2011
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SchizoAg said:

Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.

The intuitively obvious solution that always gets thrown out there. Unfortunately, when you think about it, it is logically incoherent.


Yep. It's a terrible solution for a number of reasons.

The better solution is to either (1) treat games cancelled for non-actual-weather events to be treated as forfeits (a loss) or (2) to consider excluding a certain number of games from your RPI calculation. Or do both.

I don't know what exactly the best solution is. It probably would require trying something for a couple of years to see how it affects scheduling behavior.
SchizoAg
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TXAggie2011 said:

SchizoAg said:

Wabs said:

Easy fix - if you win a game (any game), you're RPI should not drop at all.

The intuitively obvious solution that always gets thrown out there. Unfortunately, when you think about it, it is logically incoherent.


Yep. It's a terrible solution for a number of reasons.

The better solution is to either (1) treat games cancelled for non-actual-weather events to be treated as forfeits (a loss) or (2) to consider excluding a certain number of games from your RPI calculation. Or do both.

I don't know what exactly the best solution is. It probably would require trying something for a couple of years to see how it affects scheduling behavior.

I think if you could allow a team to specify a small number of games to exclude from RPI before the season starts, it would allow us to keep "spreading the wealth" to these local/system schools, without anyone perceiving it as unfair. However, that will negatively affect attendance at these games, I would think.
fmhofstetter
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AG
Why not just play baseball?
CCAD AG
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fmhofstetter said:

Why not just play baseball?


Couldn't agree more. If you scheduled 'em, play 'em.

If you cancel due to weather, your RPI should AT LEAST take the same hit as if you run ruled them in 7 innings. This would help prevent scheduling of such lopsided games in the first place.

Better still, if you cancel NOT DUE TO WEATHER, give a team the RPI hit they would have taken by BEING RUN RULED IN 7. That would provide incentive to play out your schedule.

The minor RPI hit with a weather cancel obviously won't address the possibility of the high RPI team actually beating the better team if they played, but at least you would have to take some kind of hit that is deserved for scheduling crap games. We might actually see some good midweek games near tournament time. At a minimum, we would see the scheduled games being played.

If you felt OK scheduling them, play ball. If you don't, at least have your RPI take somewhat of a hit.
94chem
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Luke The Drifter said:

Sq 17 said:

Worst 3 wins should be excluded from the calculation

Would definitely make people think before the scheduled a weekend series against a truly terrible team



If you exclude the worst 3 wins, shouldn't you also exclude the best 3 wins as well?




No that's absurd. Really, you should only include the top 50 games. Just exclude anything over 50 from the calculations. Easy math. Several ways to run it.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Gyles Marrett
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NCAA:

"if you cancel the game we will punish you, but if your RPI drops by playing the game even if you win we will also punish you....also this is entirely dependant on the name of your program and if we'd prefer to punish you or not"
flakrat
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AG
Aren't midweek games typically scheduled against opponents within bus distance and no overnight stay?

If this is the case, I would think that there's a fairly small pool of teams available to schedule within that radius, much less with good RPIs.

If my math is right, we had 9 mid week games during SEC play. Excluding the worst 2 or 3 from your RPI score seems sensible.

I'd hate to see schools complete drop their midweek games once conference play starts as these games serve a purpose, both for the fans and the teams.

JamiesChallengeCard
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I like the idea of a certain number of wins (or even games) not counting. Sometimes you may need a game where guys need rest and others need reps, and those bad teams will throw their best at you to bump up their RPI with a win.

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