Accumulation of more NFL talent required to change A&M's fortunes

DESTIN, Fla. — Here’s a startling revelation: Football teams with the best players win the most games.

OK, that’s not startling. Nor is it a revelation. Talent equals wins. Everybody knows that.

But that equation may be true in college football more than any other major team sport.

Talent in college football is largely measured by the number of NFL-caliber players on a roster. Teams with the most NFL talent typically win the most games.

Need evidence? Look at the five national champions prior to Ohio State last season and count the players selected in the ensuing two NFL drafts.

• LSU won the 2019 national title. That team had 20 Tigers selected in the next two drafts. Six of them were first-rounders.
• Alabama won the 2020 title. That team had 17 players selected in the next two drafts. Eight were first-rounders.
• Georgia won the 2021 and ‘22 titles. The ’21 team had 25 players drafted and eight first-rounders. The ’22 team had 18 drafted players and five first-rounders.
• Michigan won the 2023 title. Twenty Wolverines were taken in the next two drafts. Four were first-rounders.

Compare that to Texas A&M, which is perpetually trying to field a national championship-caliber team.

Long-suffering Aggies often say they'd give everything to win a national championship. The aforementioned numbers suggest they will have to prove it.

Last season, the Aggies were 8-5. Three players were taken in the NFL draft. See a connection?

Complicating matters for the 2025 season, all three of those players — first-round pick Shemar Stewart, second-round pick Nic Scourton and second-round pick Shemar Turner — were defensive linemen.

A&M obviously faces a major reconstruction project on the defensive line.

“That’s college football,” second-year A&M coach Mike Elko said earlier this week at the Southeastern Conference spring meetings. “If you study the better teams in the country, that happens to them every year.

“We have to get to a point where that’s who we are. We compare ourselves to some of the better teams in the country and act like this is something we’re never going to get over. Looking at other teams ... they’re replacing 12 draft picks a year.”

Obviously, the task facing A&M is to accumulate more NFL-caliber talent.

That will require better talent evaluation, more efficient player development and — quite frankly — generous donors.

As previously noted, Elko is only entering his second year in charge at A&M. He cannot be blamed for the consistent underachievement of previous regimes. He not only has to accumulate talent, but he has to change a culture.

Recruiting talent has never been a major problem for A&M. Of course, the 2022 recruiting class was (in)famously known as the best ever.

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Texas A&M’s 8-5 campaign in 2024 was an improvement on a 7-6 finish the year prior.

But some players were overrated. Some players were as troubled as they were talented. Some were lazy. Some were more motivated by compensation than competition.

Consequently, A&M failed spectacularly in the seasons with that recruiting class.

The near future will reveal if Elko has sufficiently changed the culture. We’ll see if he does a better job of evaluating talent and developing players than his predecessors.

The early returns have at least provided hope. Of course, the Aggies were 7-1 going into November last season.

The offensive line was playing well, redshirt freshman Marcel Reed had taken over as the starting quarterback, running back Le’Veon Moss was among the SEC’s leading rushers, and the defense was performing well.

Then Moss was lost to injury. Reed made freshman mistakes. Deficiencies in the defense were exposed and exploited.

The Aggies lost four of their last five games.

“I tell our players success is never linear,” Elko said. “When you’re trying to build a program from where we were to where we want to be or where we should be, you want it to go smooth and you want it to go easy. But it doesn’t always work like that. It doesn’t mean things aren’t going in the right direction. It just means you have to make some adjustments.”

Elko has the ability to make adjustments on the field and in the locker room. But that may not be enough in today’s college football, where some players will change teams every season to get more lucrative compensation.

Elko is going to need help from A&M’s fan base and donors to assemble the number of NFL-caliber players required to win championships.

Aggies are typically loyal and generous to the program. However, some may get hesitant about writing seven-figure checks. That’s understandable. They’ve gotten very little return on previous investments.

Elko can’t be blamed. Again, he has only been in charge at A&M for one year. But some donors may need to get better results to continue giving big sums.

There might be some reason for optimism, though. Elko recently said the 2025 roster has between 10 and 12 players who should be drafted.

That indicates A&M has more talent. That typically equates to more wins.