Week 1 is here! College football analyst Josh Pate joined TexAgs Live to discuss the weekend's most notable games, including A&M vs. UTSA. Pate also looked ahead at Texas A&M's schedule, naming elite matchups in Notre Dame, Florida and Texas.
Key notes from Josh Pate interview
- A&M is going to win close games. I trust them to be consistent. They have the personnel on the roster to lean on people. Over the span of four quarters, I still believe that it’ll work. The way that the defensive personnel is shaped and sized these days, that strategy works more today than in the past. I don’t think they are going to ask Marcel Reed to do things he is not capable of doing. I trust them to put him in a good position, and I trust them to be complimentary enough. The receiver room is good enough, working off of what should be one of the highest caliber ground games in the game this year, not just the SEC, but the entire sport.
- Also, I love that Notre Dame game being where it is. I love having the profile that it does. I love that in the context of this year, it played out the way it did last year. You got your bell rung a bit last year at home in Week 1. Now, you go up there to return the favor. You are trying to outdo Notre Dame in the way they did last year. You are going to go into their building and try to do that. It will be a good barometer for A&M. If A&M plays to its full potential, this is the kind of team that is going to grab the attention of a lot of people. I don’t think what Mike Elko is going to ask them to do this year is going to be flashy. I also don’t think that what he is going to ask them to do many other teams are even capable of doing. You are talking about playing a brand of ball that very few teams can pull off. That is OK, because he is not asking them to do it today for the first time. They have built, trained and conditioned for this for more than a year now. I am excited to see whether I am right or not.
- If I were to take a game of the caliber of Texas A&M vs. Florida and put it in the ACC, it would be one of the games of the year. In the SEC schedule, people don’t even know the game is going to happen this year. It is just lost in this ocean of elite matchups. The teams don’t have to be elite, but the matchups are. At their high end, Florida is a more dynamic team than Notre Dame. I may agree with that. I have Florida in the College Football Playoff. There is no one who is touting Florida more than me. I also have Notre Dame in, as well. I have both of these teams as playoff-caliber teams.
- Florida’s schedule is a hindrance, even if you do believe in them. If DJ Lagway is an A-minus or better version of what he is capable of, they’re a team that, if they play within the potential identity of themselves, can run the ball on you and turn you over. They’ve got really dynamic personnel on the front. However, their secondary is my biggest concern; they are very green there. They are ultra-talented, but unproven. But Florida, at their high end, could win a national championship. If they get in the playoffs, then that means they were good enough to get there. If they are good enough to get there, they are absolutely good enough to win it all. You can say that about Notre Dame as well. A lot of people would scoff at you being more worried about Florida than Notre Dame. I am not scoffing at you.
- That Notre Dame vs. Miami Week 1 game, Sunday night game, we will all be tuned in to it. We could see a situation where Notre Dame, even if they win, struggles to move the ball. They score seven defensive points. The defense turns it over, and they get a field goal. So 10 non-offensive points. Maybe they tack on 10 offensively and hang 20 on Miami and win 20-16. But it is really sloppy. CJ Carr has like 120 yards passing, a couple of turnovers, and they get out of there with a win. But you find yourself saying, when we get up there in a couple of weeks, we are going to get after them. Then the entire two-week build-up is how much can Carr be, can he round into form, how much can they improve? That happens every year. You get a result from a high-profile player.
- Reed could be the same. They just don’t play Miami. Then, after the two weeks, we get a much different performance. Weeks 1-4 are like you are closing your eyes and throwing four darts at a board. Then you open your eyes, and those four darts you draw a circle around, then whatever the middle of the collective circle is the team. You can have a bullseye, then one off to the left of the board. I think the Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame matchup will grab the nation’s attention. It is going to sneak up on people. It will be a good one.
- I do think Texas will win the game against Ohio State. I have less confidence than you, but I think the two things I have to say are that you are right. Broad strokes purposes, these are first-year starting QBs. But one of them has known for two calendar years at least that this is his moment. Julian Sayin has only known for two calendar weeks. If Ohio State struggles out of the gate, I can see Ohio State shuffling QBs in this game. There is no world outside of injury that I see Texas doing that.
- I think Texas has a big coaching staff advantage. People hear that and they think, “Why are you saying Steve Sarkisian’s greater than Ryan Day? Day just won a title.” I didn’t say that, I said, coaching staff advantage. Day lost two coordinators. Sarkisian is not dealing with that.
- Third thing, I don’t know if we see a game that is as volatile or more high variance in outcome. Find me an example where we’ll have more raw talent on the field and more collective uncertainty on the field. Both of these teams are in the 80th percentile in return production rate. That means there are ultra-talented four to five-star kids, but they are unproven. That means we may get wild swings in consistency or execution. If you got two MAC teams that do that, it may be 27-20 or 24-16, like those are your outcomes normally. Now there are some 38-13 blowouts either way on Saturday. You can have someone with minus two or minus three turnovers. Remember that Alabama vs Oklahoma game? Alabama goes into Oklahoma, and Oklahoma is up three touchdowns. It is non-offensive touchdowns, and Alabama just keeps turning it over. You can’t predict that, but it could happen here. If that happens in Texas vs. Ohio State, we could get a lopsided game. My joke all week is that everyone is saying it is going to be a great game, but it actually could be terrible. It is equally likely that there is a blowout. If you told me somebody is winning 37-17, I don’t know who it is, but I am taking Texas to win.
- I was leaning toward Baylor beating Auburn all spring and summer. Then you hear the QB uncertainty at Auburn. It has been up and down at camp. But the more I broke the game down, the more I leaned toward Auburn. They should have the advantage. Their offensive line should impose its will against Baylor’s defense over the span of four quarters. If that gives Jackson Arnold some time to get in a rhythm, Auburn has a wide receiver room that can take the game over.
- Baylor defensively struggled in many areas last year. I know they portaled guys, but that is not a cure-all. Even if you got the right players, it is Week 1, and they have not played together. Not every portal move is an upgrade. That is what you convince yourself of in the preseason. Not even for the elite teams. So that is what I think about Auburn on the field. Now, if you have turnover issues like you did last year, that is how Baylor wins the game. If you let home field sink its teeth into you, and you have a bunch of three-and-outs early, and you are discombobulated.
- Dave Aranda knows a lot more about defensive football than I’ll ever know. He is sitting there knowing what they are trying to do as well. “I am going to make them beat me by throwing the ball. I won’t let them beat me running the ball. I will do whatever I have to do, having a heavier box if that is what I have to do.” There are going to be one-on-one matchups. They are going to say, “Arnold, you were terrible last year. Hugh Freeze, your offense turned the ball over constantly last year. We’re going to try to force you to show us that you have rectified those issues.” If you have, hat tip to you. We don’t think you can. That’ll be the dynamic Friday night, if Auburn can weather the storm and do what Iowa State did to Kansas State, running the ball, make it a boring game and get out of there and get home. They have a couple of weeks to reassess. I do think Auburn is going to win that game. If they don’t win, there will be a red light, flashing sirens and alarm time for Freeze.
- I don’t have to predict the Clemson vs. LSU game on my show for 10 hours until my show. I lean Clemson in this game. I could give you a lot of reasons for LSU. It is one of those Week 1 games where everyone wants you to plant the flag and do the Paul Finebaum thing, where it won’t be close. I can’t do that. I know how poorly Brian Kelly has done in Week 1 games. For Clemson, in my perfect world, it is about recruiting multiple classes and indoctrinating them into your way of doing things. That is called culture. Used to be a clean word, now it is a dirty word. You then reap the benefits of planting those seeds and what is hopefully fertile topsoil. That is the beauty of college football.
- The downside is that Dabo Swinney has completely foregone the other advantage, the transfer portal. They have barely touched it. Now, this year is a perfect referendum season for his approach and whether it is compatible at the high end, the championship end of college football. It won’t prove itself on Saturday. It will start to bear itself out on Saturday. The other thing I worry about is all the returning production they have. They don’t have depth. They need to stay healthy, and if they do, they can make a run. Now, they didn’t have a big win in 2024. They beat SMU, well, they should’ve. Penn State beat Boise State and SMU, and everyone only remembers Notre Dame. Now, can Clemson’s best get it done?
