SEC Round-Up: LSU's playoff hopes dangling as Kelly's seat gets warmer

“Geaux Tigers” bumper stickers can be seen on cars and trucks throughout the length and breadth of Louisiana.

But a change may be coming. Should LSU fall to Texas A&M on Saturday night in Death Valley, bumper stickers saying “Geaux Away Brian Kelly” may appear.

The seat under Kelly, LSU’s embattled football coach, is getting hotter than Louisiana Hot Sauce.

Four weeks into this season, LSU was ranked No. 3 in the nation. But Southeastern Conference losses to Ole Miss and Vanderbilt have left the Tigers (5-2, 2-2) fighting for their College Football Playoff lives.

“Our fan base wants positive outcomes, I get that,” Kelly said this week. “There’s nothing that brings a community together better than an LSU victory.”

True, but right now, the fans are united with a common disdain for Kelly.

One more loss likely eliminates LSU. With No. 3 A&M coming to Baton Rouge, the Tigers could be out before November.

That’s hard for LSU fans to take. Remember, this is a program that fired national championship-winning coaches Les Miles and Ed Orgeron. Orgeron was axed just two seasons after winning the national title.

From the beginning, when he left Notre Dame for LSU to replace Orgeron after the 2021 season, Kelly never seemed like a good fit.

He was mocked for using a fake southern accent. He made a cringeworthy dance video.

But all was fine because LSU went 10-4 and won the SEC West Division in Kelly’s first season.

The next year, the Tigers finished 10-3, but last year, they slumped to 9-4. Kelly looked silly banging on a table out of frustration after a 27-20 season-opening loss to USC.

Consecutive losses to A&M, Alabama and Florida came later. The Tigers finished 9-4. That’s not a good year in Baton Rouge.

In the offseason, LSU spent heavily to bring in the nation’s top-rated transfer portal class.

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Behind Heisman-winning quarterback Joe Burrow, head coach Ed Orgeron led the Tigers to a 15-0 record and the 2019 national title.

Defensive tackle Bernard Gooden from South Florida would bolster the run defense. Safety A.J. Haulcy from Houston and cornerback Mansoor Delane from Virginia Tech would improve the secondary. Receivers Nic Anderson of Oklahoma and Barion Brown of Kentucky would bring big-play ability. John Thompson of Northwestern and Braelin Moore of Virginia Tech would restock an offensive line that had been depleted by the NFL Draft.

But it hasn’t worked out.

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier was expected to be a leading Heisman Trophy candidate after throwing for 4,052 yards and 29 touchdowns last season. This year, he has passed for 1,638 yards and 11 touchdowns and is no longer listed among Heisman contenders.

The running game is ranked 117th in the nation. LSU averages just 112.8 yards.

The defense is good, but not good enough to compensate for an anemic offense. LSU has not scored more than 24 points against a Power Four opponent.

The two losses were 24-19 to Ole Miss and 31-24 to Vanderbilt.

Further, LSU is tied for 13th in the SEC in red-zone conversions. The Tigers have come away with 14 touchdowns and six field goals on 25 red-zone appearances.

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Garrett Nussmeier ranks sixth in the SEC with 234.0 passing yards per game.

All that results in mounting frustration, which leads to criticism and calls for Kelly’s ouster.

Kelly has heard those calls. He knows expectations of a championship season are hanging by a thread.

“When there’s that much at stake, things like that occur,” he said. “But I’ve got to be honest with you, I can’t take time to think about those things. I have to think about not making mistakes in the red zone and making sure that we do a good job staying on the upfield shoulder of the quarterback when we blitz off the edge into a naked boot. I have to think about those things and help our coaches keep coaching and teaching that.

“The reality of this is, if I take a global view on all these things all day, I wouldn’t get my job done. Some are saying I’m not getting it done now. I get that. I get the criticism that comes with that, but we are working hard every single day to get our football team better.”

If they don’t get better fast, LSU may be forced to pay a $52 million buyout to make Kelly geaux away.

Around the SEC

This week’s games: No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 20 LSU; No. 22 Texas at Mississippi State; No. 8 Ole Miss at No. 13 Oklahoma; Auburn at Arkansas; No. 4 Alabama at South Carolina; No. 15 Missouri at No. 10 Vanderbilt; No. 17 Tennessee at Kentucky

Who’s hot: Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop has rushed for 269 yards and three touchdowns in his past two games. He’s averaged 9.6 yards per carry in those outings. In his past four games, his per-carry average is 8.3 yards. Despite that production, Bishop had just 48 carries in those games. This week, he faces Kentucky, which limited Texas to just 47 rushing yards a week ago. But Kentucky’s rush defense really isn’t that good. In the Wildcats’ other three SEC games, they’ve allowed 192.7 yards per game. South Carolina, which is last in the SEC in rushing, ran for 178 yards vs. Kentucky. So Bishop figures to have another big game.

Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel

Tennessee’s DeSean Bishop now ranks fifth in rushing with 604 yards.

Who’s not: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is certainly not hot in one aspect – beating top025 teams. Last week’s loss at Georgia dropped him to 12-25 against ranked opponents. The Rebels next face No. 13 Oklahoma.

Keep an eye on: Texas’ offensive line has been flat-out bad in two of three SEC games. The Florida and Kentucky defensive lines dominated the Longhorns. Texas rushed for just 99 total yards in those two games, combined. Weirdly, the line played well against Oklahoma, statistically the toughest defense Texas has faced. This week, the Longhorns get Mississippi State, which has lost 15 league games in a row and has just 29 tackles for loss, which is 114th in the nation. In four games against Power Four opponents, Mississippi State has surrendered 213.3 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns. This game will reveal just how much the Longhorns' line is struggling.

The pressure is on: Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold and coach Hugh Freeze are under mounting pressure. The Tigers have lost four in a row —all to top-25 foes. All were one-score games. Auburn’s defense isn’t the problem. It’s allowing just 4.69 yards per play, which is fourth-best in the SEC and 21st in the nation. Auburn’s offense? It’s at 5.08 yards per play, which is 14th in the SEC and 109th nationally. Auburn can’t block, run or throw. Other than that, the offense is fine. The good news is that Auburn next faces a soft Arkansas defense. If Auburn can’t get score at least in the high 20s vs. Arkansas, the offense may be a lost cause.

Best matchup: Missouri rushing attack vs. Vanderbilt’s run defense. Don’t laugh, but this could end up being a playoff play-in game. For the second season in a row, Mizzou’s schedule is a joke (though it does toughen up from here), and while Vandy has some tough games down the stretch (at Texas and vs. Tennessee), who in their right mind is betting against Diego Pavia anymore? This will come down to Vandy’s run defense. Mizzou is in trouble if quarterback Beau Pribula must win games with his arm. The Commodores are allowing just 3.38 yards per rush (26th nationally) and have given up just three rushing scores (tied for third-fewest). Mizzou has 22 rushing touchdowns (tied for fifth), but it’s vital that running back Ahmad Hardy (just 110 yards in his past two games) has room to run.