A November bye week is a luxury for championship-contending college football teams.
They can relax, heal and potentially watch postseason prospects improve if the right rivals win or lose.
That’s the position No. 3 Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0) is in.
The Aggies are tied with No. 4 Alabama (7-1, 5-0) for first place in the Southeastern Conference standings. With four games remaining, the Aggies have the inside track to reach Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
They also are in a prime position to grab a place in the College Football Playoff — maybe even grab a first-round bye.
A&M’s postseason outlook can get even better if the right teams lose on Saturday. The problem is figuring out what are the right teams.
Some are easy. Georgia (6-1, 4-1) still has SEC championship and playoff hopes, but a loss to Florida would put the Bulldogs on the verge of SEC championship elimination. Georgia’s playoff hopes would become precarious, too.
So… Go Gators.
The Aggies would be mostly indifferent about most of the remaining SEC schedule.
Well, except for No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1) at No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1).
A&M will never be indifferent about games involving the Longhorns. Every maroon-bleeding Aggie has two favorite football teams — Texas A&M and whoever is playing Texas.
However, it might actually benefit A&M more if Texas wins.
Sure, that seems crazy. But at least consider these reasons:
1. Vanderbilt already has a victory over Missouri.
That’s relevant because A&M plays at Mizzou next week. No SEC game — especially on the road — is a sure win, so if A&M fell to Missouri, the Aggies could possibly end the season tied with Vanderbilt.
In that case, Vanderbilt has a data point advantage in that the Commodores will have beaten the team that beat A&M.
2. Vanderbilt is more likely to win out.
After Texas, the Commodores are home vs. Auburn (4-4, 1-4) and Kentucky (2-5, 0-6), and they play at Tennessee. The game against Tennessee, especially, could be dicey, but the Volunteers’ weak defense could be exploited by Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia.
Meanwhile, the week after playing Vanderbilt, Texas must travel to face No. 5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1). The Dawgs, which rarely lose in Athens, beat Texas twice last season.
The Longhorns likely lose to Georgia and are eliminated from SEC and CFP consideration.
3. A&M doesn’t play Vanderbilt.
In the event of a tie in the standings with Vanderbilt, the Aggies might have to rely on tie-breakers to get into the SEC Championship Game.
A&M may be the best team in the SEC. The Aggies appear to be better than Vanderbilt, but they don’t have a head-to-head matchup to prove it.
However, they do close the season vs. Texas. There is little doubt A&M has a superior team. A head-to-head clash would remove all doubt.
Therefore, for those reasons, doesn’t it make sense that Aggies should want Texas to beat Vanderbilt?
Of course not.
Vanderbilt is the second-favorite team for all Aggies.
Well, for this week, anyway.
Around the SEC
This week’s games: No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas; No. 5 Georgia vs. Florida at Jacksonville; Mississippi State at Arkansas; South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss; No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee; Kentucky at Auburn
Who’s hot: Tennessee’s offense is coming off a 56-point, 504-yard performance against Kentucky. That offense is the reason the Volunteers are 6-2. Tennessee has gained at least 410 yards in all eight games and at least 485 six times. The Vols are in the top-10 nationally in plays of at least 10 yards, 30 yards and 50 yards. Tennessee is averaging 6.99 yards per play, which is second in the SEC (to Vandy) and 12th nationally. The Vols also scored 61 total points in their losses. They face their toughest test so far vs. Oklahoma.
Who’s not: Although quarterback Vanderbilt Diego Pavia is vital to Vanderbilt’s success, his passing is just adequate at best. Pavia has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his four SEC games. Only four of his 15 touchdown passes have come against SEC competition. Indeed, his four worst passer ratings have come against SEC foes. Also, his yards per attempt in each of those four games was below 7.4. That number was at least 9.4 in the four non-conference games vs. Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, Georgia State and Utah State.
Keep an eye on: Let’s see if Billy Napier was really the problem for Florida. Napier’s play-calling was a gigantic issue in Gainesville. Now that Napier is out, perhaps Florida will get more production out of quarterback DJ Lagway and the Gators’ talented receivers. Given protection, Lagway could do some damage against Georgia this weekend. Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee had tremendous success against the Bulldogs’ secondary. Also, Georgia is last in the SEC with just eight sacks, so Lagway figures to get a reasonable amount of time to throw.
The pressure is on: Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby is catching heat for the way the Bulldogs have squandered opportunities for big upsets. Two-thirds of his way through his second season, the Bulldogs still have not won an SEC game. Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs reached the Florida 29-yard line in the final minute, but an interception resulted in a 23-21 loss. Last week, they blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost to Texas in overtime. Earlier this season, Mississippi State gave up a game-tying touchdown to Tennessee with fewer than two minutes remaining. The Volunteers won in overtime. Next, the Bulldogs travel to face Arkansas in what figures to be their best chance to get a conference victory. After that, the Bulldogs face Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss. If Mississippi State loses in Fayetteville, the prospect of back-to-back winless seasons in SEC play is very realistic.
Best matchup: If you’re the type who slows down to look at crashes or likes disaster movies, then the matchup of Auburn coach Hugh Freeze vs. Kentucky’s Mark Stoops is your kind of game. Their teams are not good. Auburn has one SEC win (vs. Arkansas). Kentucky is 0-5. Neither offense is very good. Auburn has scored more than 17 points just once (vs. Arkansas) in SEC play. Kentucky has scored more than 14 points just once against conference competition (vs. Tennessee). Not surprisingly, Arkansas and Tennessee field the SEC’s two worst defenses.
