Physicality and 'critical factors' likely to decide Friday's grudge match
Big-play quarterbacks and explosive receivers figure to draw the most attention when No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0, 7-0) and No. 16 Texas (8-3, 5-2) continue their football rivalry on Friday night at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
But more obscure players likely will play an even bigger role in the important Southeastern Conference clash, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. CT.
“I think in big games in this league, physicality matters,” Texas A&M coach Mike Elko said. “How you can control the line of scrimmage. How you can establish the line of scrimmage. Those things always seem to play really, really big when two good SEC football teams play each other.
“I think who controls the trenches more often than not will have a huge upper hand. That’ll be a big piece of this equation, for sure.”
In that case, both teams have to excel up front because so much is at stake.
A victory enables A&M to advance to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta next week. It would also enhance the Aggies’ potential seeding in the College Football Playoff.
A Texas victory keeps alive the Longhorns’ fragile hopes of getting into the 12-team playoff field.
Elko’s school of thought would appear to favor the Aggies. A&M’s offensive line is among the best in the nation. The “Maroon Goons” have allowed just 11 sacks, while also fueling a running game that averages 195.9 yards.
Conversely, Texas’ line has often struggled. The Longhorns are 110th in the nation in rushing offense. They’ve also allowed 21 sacks.
A word of caution, though. Elko didn’t say the physicality up front would be the only determining factor.
“I think when you talk about this game, the critical factors of football will play a huge role,” he said. “Turnover margin is going to play a big role. Explosive plays is going to play a big role. Winning on special teams is going to play a big role.
“When you have two teams that are going to battle it out without a ton of separation between the two of them, it’s going to come down to those important factors that’ll determine winning and losing.”
Turnover margin favors Texas. The Longhorns have forced 18 turnovers (seven fumbles and 11 interceptions), while committing just eight.
A&M has lost 14 turnovers, while gaining just nine.
Explosive plays are an A&M strength.
Behind Heisman Trophy-contending quarterback Marcel Reed, the Aggies have 66 plays of 20 yards or more. A lot of those go to the dangerous receiving corps led by Mario Craver and KC Concepcion, who are ranked third and fourth in the SEC in receiving yardage.
Concepcion leads the SEC with 37 receptions of at least 10 yards.
However, Texas quarterback Arch Manning heads an offensive unit that has overcome a slow start to accumulate more than 400 yards in three of their last four games.
Manning has completed an SEC-high 24 passes of at least 30 yards. A lot of those have gone to sophomore receiver Ryan Wingo, who averages 16 yards a catch.
As far as special teams go, the game features two of the best punt return threats in the nation.
Texas’ Ryan Niblett averages 27.7 yards on 17 returns. He ha brought back two for touchdowns. Concepcion averages 20.9 yards on 19 returns. He, too, has brought back two for touchdowns.
But Texas kicker Mason Shipley has converted 80 percent of his field goal attempts. A&M’s place-kicking has been erratic.
Another key factor figures to be pass rush. Both teams have fierce rushes. A&M is second in the nation with 39 sacks. Texas is third with 37.
A&M’s Cashius Howell has 11.5 sacks. Texas’ Colin Simmons has 10.
The rushes could have a major effect on how much success Reed and Manning have.
Therefore, pass protection is another major factor. Which, of course, goes back to Elko's original point.
