will25u said:
I commented over on the B&I board....
I don't necessarily have an issue with the rule changes for index inclusion of mega-cap IPO. I think there is a larger question of why are companies waiting longer to go public today than in previous years.
What will happen is the very quick index inclusion is very likely going to have strong upward pressure on the stock price due to the current low float of tradeable shares. Of course this will then ripple across other companies as all of these indexes rebalance.
The next big adjustment will be later in the year as insiders begin to see their shares become eligible for trading. Management and individuals will do some selling, but I don't see those "relatively" small trades as needle moving outside of clickbait headlines. Senior management and executives are often offloading shares at regular intervals while simultaneously likely exercising options for reduced price shares. Where I do think we could see significant volume generation would be VC unloading their positions.
Estimates of how much of it is owned by VC firms vary, but I could see them unwinding their positions. They've likely had capital tied up for some time now and want it back off the table with their profits. Long term stock holdings aren't really their game.
Edit... forgot to say this part....
This means that I think we could see some fairly significant price action and volatility of SPCX stock over the coming months as it works to settle in and find its true market value. Especially until there is sufficient float to absorb and moderate the coming large volume moves.