***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

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Rossticus
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7:48p, 6/30/26


The Ukrainian FP-9 ballistic missile, which can reach Moscow , is nearly operational Business AM

"The UA FP-9 was developed for extreme speed and precision: It flies at Mach 7 (about 8,500 km/h) and reaches targets at a distance of 855 km in about eight minutes. The missile, which carries an 800 kg warhead and has a deviation of only 20 meters, is physically larger than the Russian Iskander-M."
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Rossticus
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7:52p, 6/30/26
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Rossticus
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7:59p, 6/30/26
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Rossticus
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8:00p, 6/30/26
In today's edition of Russians bound for windows…



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Rossticus
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8:19p, 6/30/26
Cold blooded. The man is a mobster, not a politician.

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agent-maroon
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:01p, 6/30/26
AG
Rossticus said:

Haven't they kind of been trying to come up with an idea that would work for taking Kyiv for like 4+ years now? I think they call it a "Special Military Operation" or something like that
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Sq 17
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In reply to agent-maroon • 10:08p, 6/30/26
Losing side pretending that they are working on a plan to achieve goals that they have repeatedly failed to achieve

This is what losing looks like
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fullback44
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:24p, 6/30/26
AG
Rossticus said:


The Ukrainian FP-9 ballistic missile, which can reach Moscow , is nearly operational Business AM

"The UA FP-9 was developed for extreme speed and precision: It flies at Mach 7 (about 8,500 km/h) and reaches targets at a distance of 855 km in about eight minutes. The missile, which carries an 800 kg warhead and has a deviation of only 20 meters, is physically larger than the Russian Iskander-M."

This new missile will cause major problems for Moscow, hell if they can't stop the Flamingo they won't stop this bad boy going Mach 7 ..
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Rossticus
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10:35p, 6/30/26
More work in Crimea





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Rossticus
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10:37p, 6/30/26
Russia beginning to escort shadow fleet from a distance, it seems.

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Rossticus
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1:13a, 7/1/26

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Gilligan
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6:47a, 7/1/26
AG
With the new missile technology, when will a section of the Kerch bridge be dropped?

Is it still too well defended?
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Sq 17 • 6:56a, 7/1/26
AG
Sq 17 said:
Losing side pretending that they are working on a plan to achieve goals that they have repeatedly failed to achieve

This is what losing looks like

I agree, but it could have teeth to it, if the reports are true. There is definitely precedent for it. Germany did something like this with their Operation Watch on the Rhine. Which resulted in the Battle of the Bulge. A last ditch offensive effort to make something happen on the western front.

Another point is that the one constant in this war, the one thing that has not changed since minute one, is the need for Russia to be on the offensive, always. It's the one thing that they have sold to their people. They can point on a map and say "Look! we are winning!" Even if the reports are modified and it is just the perception of progress at the end of the day. Since they have been ground to a crawl and their economy is crashing, a quick cheap dirty win somewhere has to look appealing to desperate men I would think.

Thankfully, anything substantial should be able to be spotted in the prep stage and maybe Luka can keep a bit of spine going. Yet, I also would not dismiss it out of hand completely either. Unlikely? Highly, IMO for practical reasons, but I do believe Russian commanders are talking about it at the least. Honestly, I would be surprised if there isn't a skeleton of a plan already drafted somewhere. We would have had one for sure.
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Eliminatus
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In reply to Gilligan • 7:03a, 7/1/26
AG
Gilligan said:
With the new missile technology, when will a section of the Kerch bridge be dropped?

Is it still too well defended?

No idea. Also not entirely sure if it is a top strategic priority for the Ukes anymore. It very well could be, but in my own head, I would have dropped it down somewhat. Maybe the Ukes feel the same because they absolutely have the ability to at least take a stab at it now, but haven't even tried to my knowledge in quite some time. I have a couple of ideas of why perhaps but it's just conjecture.
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agent-maroon
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7:24a, 7/1/26
AG
Kerch bridge isn't going anywhere and it would appear that their current focus on russian oil refineries is producing much more strategic results. The bridge can come down anytime after they've completely wrecked the russian economy like they're well on the way to doing.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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Rossticus
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8:19a, 7/1/26
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Rossticus
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8:24a, 7/1/26
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AlaskanAg99
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8:27a, 7/1/26
AG
Historically you need 3:1 or 4:1 odds for an invasion force to be successful. Russia lost that years ago and drones have absolutely changed the face of warfare.

Right now there is no counter to cheap drones and even armor cant stand up to them. Russia taught the world a huge lesson. Of what not to do.
aTm '99
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lb3
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In reply to Rossticus • 9:35a, 7/1/26
AG
Rossticus said:
Thats about 140 million gallons of gas. At 10k gallons per large tanker truck, that's 14000 trucks per month or 20 per hour.
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fullback44
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In reply to lb3 • 9:53a, 7/1/26
AG
lb3 said:
Rossticus said:
Thats about 140 million gallons of gas. At 10k gallons per large tanker truck, that's 14000 trucks per month or 20 per hour.


Not really a lot of fuel to be honest, 14 medium
Size gasoline tankers is a spit in the bucket. India probably has excess refinery capacity so they will gladly sell it to Russia. Russia is (was) already distributing a lot more fuel than that monthly so I don't see distribution as an issue. Ukraine is probably not affecting distribution unless it's closer to the action.
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74OA
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10:05a, 7/1/26
AG
Did Ukraine just test its first heavy domestic ballistic missile on Moscow? If so, Russia will now have a significantly more stressful air defense problem to deal with.

"No official statement from Ukraine or Russia acknowledges such a launch, and the available evidence consists entirely of indirect indicators, but the combination of radar track profiles, crater characteristics, and interception altitude reported from the scene is generating serious analytical attention."

STRIKE?
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lb3
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In reply to fullback44 • 10:06a, 7/1/26
AG
They were already distributing that much gasoline but that is typically from a distribution center near a pipeline to the gas stations. If they have to drive from India to the distribution centers that's a big logistical challenge.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rossticus • 10:11a, 7/1/26
AG
I don't think the Russian escorts are new. There was even a warning shot instance near the UK when a yacht drifted too close too a shadow fleet vessel, and its escort fired.
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txags92
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In reply to lb3 • 10:37a, 7/1/26
AG
lb3 said:
They were already distributing that much gasoline but that is typically from a distribution center near a pipeline to the gas stations. If they have to drive from India to the distribution centers that's a big logistical challenge.

They aren't driving it in from India, they are shipping it by sea. They will need to drive it from a port somewhere to the rest of the places that need it. Will be interesting to see how Russia turns around a system built for exports to instead load trucks or trains from tankers and how long it takes Ukraine to knock out that import location.
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shiftyandquick
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10:54a, 7/1/26
As mentioned earlier, Russia now wishes they were a gas station. They are less than that now.

I've become interested in the psychology of the Russian people. What has led them to be so supportive of the worst regimes of the last 100 years, causing such destruction and harm across the globe. Their influence has been extraordinary and terribly malignant.

The only things that are driving their opposition, as reported, are high prices and shortages and bombs blowing up next to them. A forced mobilization among the urban whites is also going to drive opposition which is why it has not happened yet. A bill will soon be paid by the Russian people. A big bill.
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txags92
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In reply to shiftyandquick • 11:00a, 7/1/26
AG
shiftyandquick said:
As mentioned earlier, Russia now wishes they were a gas station. They are less than that now.

I've become interested in the psychology of the Russian people. What has led them to be so supportive of the worst regimes of the last 100 years, causing such destruction and harm across the globe. Their influence has been extraordinary and terribly malignant.

The only things that are driving their opposition, as reported, are high prices and shortages and bombs blowing up next to them. A forced mobilization among the urban whites is also going to drive opposition which is why it has not happened yet. A bill will soon be paid by the Russian people. A big bill.

It is the cumulative effect of over a century of sending anybody troublesome to the front with a dodgy rifle and no ammo, cutting off food to whole swaths of the population to cause famine and genocide, the best and brightest leaving the country, and any notion of rebellious thought being rapidly and brutally suppressed. What you get is a population that accepts whatever government tells them and doesn't make any trouble about it. Or if they feel otherwise, they are smart enough not to say it out loud.
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TacosaurusRex
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In reply to fullback44 • 11:35a, 7/1/26
fullback44 said:
lb3 said:
Rossticus said:

Thats about 140 million gallons of gas. At 10k gallons per large tanker truck, that's 14000 trucks per month or 20 per hour.


Not really a lot of fuel to be honest, 14 medium
Size gasoline tankers is a spit in the bucket. India probably has excess refinery capacity so they will gladly sell it to Russia. Russia is (was) already distributing a lot more fuel than that monthly so I don't see distribution as an issue. Ukraine is probably not affecting distribution unless it's closer to the action.

I was reading an article that said the refinery in India was one of only two or three Russian oil facilities that haven't been hit yet. The refinery in India is Russian owned, so I don't think India is making any money off of this, or had much say in where the gas was going.
"If you are reading this, I have passed on from this world — not as big a deal for you as it was for me."
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Rossticus
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11:42a, 7/1/26
Looks like Kazakhstan has caved. Not surprising.



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Rossticus
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11:43a, 7/1/26
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PJYoung
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1:18p, 7/1/26
AG


Quote:
Here are the devastating, record-breaking numbers from June that the Kremlin doesn't want its public to see:

Manpower Losses: Russian occupying forces suffered 39,290 casualties in June alone the highest monthly toll since March 2025. Their failed tactic of sending infantry into assaults alone or in pairs (infiltration) means wounded soldiers are routinely abandoned on the field to die.

The Meat Grinder Ratio: Russia managed to seize a pathetic 72 km of territory in June. This means the Kremlin paid a horrific price of 545 Russian bodies per single square kilometer captured. Considering the panicky reports from Russian Z-channels regarding Ukrainian counter-attacks, Moscow's net territorial gain is likely in the negative.

Absolute Artillery Record: Ukrainian forces obliterated an incredible 2,074 Russian tube artillery pieces in June. This is an absolute all-time high for the entire war, shattering the previous records set in April and May. Ukraine is now systematically hunting Russian guns deep in the rear before they even reach the frontline.

MLRS Annihilation: 83 Russian Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) were destroyed in June, completely smashing the previous record of 67 from July 2023. When a Russian BM-21 Grad gets hit with a full payload of 122mm rockets, the detonation ensures total destruction with zero chance of repair.

Forced Heavy Armor Rationing: Russia lost a relatively moderate 103 tanks and 197 armored vehicles. This isn't due to tactical brilliance, but severe scarcity the enemy is forced to strictly ration their remaining armor, opting to send pure meat waves forward on foot instead.

The blueprint of June is clear: Russia's summer offensive is turning out to be even more catastrophic than their failed spring operations. They are burning through heavy assets and personnel at an unsustainable velocity. The clock is ticking, and the pressure on the occupying forces is reaching a breaking point!

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PJYoung
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1:20p, 7/1/26
AG


Today, I ask our people in Ukraine to be especially careful stay safe and protect your families and children be sure to take shelter and pay attention to air-raid alerts in Ukraine. We know that Putin has been preparing a massive strike against Ukraine for some time. That is exactly the threat we are facing tonight.

Russia's head is completely refusing to end the war. And although through all possible official and unofficial channels including through people close to him we have conveyed that the war can and must be ended, and that we in Ukraine are ready for meetings and meaningful negotiations, he sees only further aggression against Ukraine and against other neighbors and Europe as a whole.

I said this during a joint press conference with the Taoiseach of Ireland, Michel Martin.



This, combined with missile loading operations over the past week, has prompted Ukrainian sources to forecast the high probability of an attack for tonight, 1-2 July 2026.
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Rossticus
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1:20p, 7/1/26
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Sq 17
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In reply to Rossticus • 2:08p, 7/1/26
Does falling out a window or fatal food poisoning count as stepping down ?
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hsjnlssmith89
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In reply to agent-maroon • 2:16p, 7/1/26
AG
agent-maroon said:
Kerch bridge isn't going anywhere and it would appear that their current focus on russian oil refineries is producing much more strategic results. The bridge can come down anytime after they've completely wrecked the russian economy like they're well on the way to doing.


This is the best exit for all the Russians living in Crimea. Keep the bridge up so that they can get out for good.
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PJYoung
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2:43p, 7/1/26
AG
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