***Russian - Ukraine War Tactical and Strategic Updates*** [Warning on OP]

8,526,871 Views | 50124 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by txags92
nortex97
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Edit. Included the wrong post.
jbeaman88
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Very slim chance Putin leaves Russia or Zelensky goes to Russia, unfortunately
LMCane
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jbeaman88 said:

Very slim chance Putin leaves Russia or Zelensky goes to Russia, unfortunately

why not go to Warsaw or Vilnius then

there is that part of Russia in Kaliningrad maybe Putie Poot would go there...
74OA
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Ukraine has developed a new reuseable interceptor drone.

"The Mongoose is a jet-powered, fixed-wing UAV equipped with a heat-seeking guidance system and a multi-barrel shotgun designed to disable enemy drones by targeting their engines or propellers."

SHOTGUN
74OA
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LMCane said:

jbeaman88 said:

Very slim chance Putin leaves Russia or Zelensky goes to Russia, unfortunately

why not go to Warsaw or Vilnius then

there is that part of Russia in Kaliningrad maybe Putie Poot would go there...

Those countries will never agree to let Putin set foot on their territory and he can only go where the ICC's warrant for him won't be honored. Zelensky only goes to Russia if he suddenly develops a death wish.

Anyway, Putin is too wary to go into any meeting that includes Zelensky. His intent is to get Trump alone and bamboozle him again.

UPDATES

Waffledynamics
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trip
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Waffledynamics said:



Just in time for the next round of peace talks.
Who?mikejones!
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ABATTBQ11
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We can only hope.
PJYoung
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74OA
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Ukrainian unmanned sea drones launch FPVs drones of their own against air defenses in occupied Crimea hitting several key radars essential for defending the peninsula. RADARS.

Ground drones launching drones will be next.

lb3
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From that link:

AlaskanAg99
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It's really kind of wild the Jet age began at the end of WWII and now slow propeller driven suicide drones are so effective.
LMCane
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AlaskanAg99 said:

It's really kind of wild the Jet age began at the end of WWII and now slow propeller driven suicide drones are so effective.

they are only effective because the Russkies and Ukes do not have enough anti-drone weapons.

the USA and Israel will not be in the same position-

Hamas and Hizbullah and Iran fired literally OVER 1000 drones at Israel and their hit rate is around 4%.
ABATTBQ11
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And that depleted our stockpiles of interceptors so severely that we paused shipments to Ukraine. It's also something Ukraine sees pretty regularly. Russia is working on producing enough drones to launch attacks like that every month. That's something even we would have trouble countering after awhile unless we increase our production capabilities substantially. It's also unsustainable from a cost perspective as we saw with US warships shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.

It's a strategic problem no matter how you slice it.
74OA
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Ukraine modifies a crop duster aircraft to hunt larger drones. It isn't the first civilian aircraft it has converted for this mission.

EXPEDIENT
lb3
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ABATTBQ11 said:

And that depleted our stockpiles of interceptors so severely that we paused shipments to Ukraine. It's also something Ukraine sees pretty regularly. Russia is working on producing enough drones to launch attacks like that every month. That's something even we would have trouble countering after awhile unless we increase our production capabilities substantially. It's also unsustainable from a cost perspective as we saw with US warships shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.

It's a strategic problem no matter how you slice it.
We would bomb the drone production which Ukraine can't do effectively. It also doesn't help that Ukraine can't attack Russian suppliers in China.

I'm shocked to read that we've only produced about 5000 tomahawks since they were introduced. Given that we produce less than 100 per year, on average, and we can burn through 100 or more in a single night it wouldn't take long to deplete our inventory in a major confrontation. I would like to see our inventory up around 15000. We probably have over 100k JDAMs in inventory however so it's not like we can't wreck stuff, we just need air superiority to do it.
revvie
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74OA said:

Ukraine modifies a crop duster aircraft to hunt larger drones. It isn't the first civilian aircraft it has converted for this mission.

EXPEDIENT

Ukraine is improvising as they go. What is needed is a cheap countermeasure that can be mass produced. The plane costs approximately $500K and missiles at $10K each. I am sure they are working on that. Save the big cost items for the cruise and hypersonic missiles.
GAC06
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lb3 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

And that depleted our stockpiles of interceptors so severely that we paused shipments to Ukraine. It's also something Ukraine sees pretty regularly. Russia is working on producing enough drones to launch attacks like that every month. That's something even we would have trouble countering after awhile unless we increase our production capabilities substantially. It's also unsustainable from a cost perspective as we saw with US warships shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.

It's a strategic problem no matter how you slice it.
We would bomb the drone production which Ukraine can't do effectively. It also doesn't help that Ukraine can't attack Russian suppliers in China.

I'm shocked to read that we've only produced about 5000 tomahawks since they were introduced. Given that we produce less than 100 per year, on average, and we can burn through 100 or more in a single night it wouldn't take long to deplete our inventory in a major confrontation. I would like to see our inventory up around 15000. We probably have over 100k JDAMs in inventory however so it's not like we can't wreck stuff, we just need air superiority to do it.


I don't think your production number for tomahawks is accurate. There are archived sources from 10-15 years ago saying we had built more than that back then. We have fired almost 2500 in combat and reportedly have around 4000 on hand.
txags92
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GAC06 said:

lb3 said:

ABATTBQ11 said:

And that depleted our stockpiles of interceptors so severely that we paused shipments to Ukraine. It's also something Ukraine sees pretty regularly. Russia is working on producing enough drones to launch attacks like that every month. That's something even we would have trouble countering after awhile unless we increase our production capabilities substantially. It's also unsustainable from a cost perspective as we saw with US warships shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.

It's a strategic problem no matter how you slice it.

We would bomb the drone production which Ukraine can't do effectively. It also doesn't help that Ukraine can't attack Russian suppliers in China.

I'm shocked to read that we've only produced about 5000 tomahawks since they were introduced. Given that we produce less than 100 per year, on average, and we can burn through 100 or more in a single night it wouldn't take long to deplete our inventory in a major confrontation. I would like to see our inventory up around 15000. We probably have over 100k JDAMs in inventory however so it's not like we can't wreck stuff, we just need air superiority to do it.


I don't think your production number for tomahawks is accurate. There are archived sources from 10-15 years ago saying we had built more than that back then. We have fired almost 2500 in combat and reportedly have around 4000 on hand.

Would love to what kind of havoc Ukraine could do with about 400.
JFABNRGR
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ABATTBQ11 said:

And that depleted our stockpiles of interceptors so severely that we paused shipments to Ukraine. It's also something Ukraine sees pretty regularly. Russia is working on producing enough drones to launch attacks like that every month. That's something even we would have trouble countering after awhile unless we increase our production capabilities substantially. It's also unsustainable from a cost perspective as we saw with US warships shooting down Houthi drones and missiles.

It's a strategic problem no matter how you slice it.


Katherine Boyle on SRS podcast is excellent. She goes into the Ukraine war a bit and basically states our greatest weakness right now is the ability to rapidly produce munitions. Whereas russia, china, Ukraine are at the forefront. Its a very good listen.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2oAwUzLJUPrO6dw8SXH3ak?si=VcTCL-B6QT-z6XAbOPMkDg
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
74OA
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Disgusting. Alaska will be soiled by mass-murderer Putin's presence. Anchorage will need a power-wash afterwards to remove the stench.

mallen
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74OA said:

Disgusting. Alaska will be soiled by mass-murderer Putin's presence. Anchorage will need a power-wash afterwards to remove the stench.



We can only count the ways the Kremlin is likely manipulating these kids. Probably leading them to believe that they will be reunited with their family soon in order to gain their trust. This is heinous evil but rationalized away as a necessity to protect Mother Russia as well as to protect "traditional family values".
74OA
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Here's the latest campaign update. As always, if too long, scroll down to the bullet summary points.

In advance of his Alaska trip, Putin continues to demand to get paid to make peace. "Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as part of a ceasefire agreement." These lands encompass Ukrainian oil, gas, mineral and agricultural resources valued in the hundreds of billions.

ISW
SamHou
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I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream
74OA
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SamHou said:

I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream

The stick is the only thing Russia in general and Putin in particular understands.
txags92
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74OA said:

SamHou said:

I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream

The stick is the only thing Russia in general and Putin in particular understands.

To make the stick a viable threat, sometimes you have to demonstrate the willingness to use it. Otherwise it is just empty words.
Who?mikejones!
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Who?mikejones!
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txags92 said:

74OA said:

SamHou said:

I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream

The stick is the only thing Russia in general and Putin in particular understands.

To make the stick a viable threat, sometimes you have to demonstrate the willingness to use it. Otherwise it is just empty words.


The only stick that will work would be western troops on the ground. Theres nothing left weapon wise that will turn this war.
aggiehawg
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txags92 said:

74OA said:

SamHou said:

I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream

The stick is the only thing Russia in general and Putin in particular understands.

To make the stick a viable threat, sometimes you have to demonstrate the willingness to use it. Otherwise it is just empty words.

Never take it off of the table. Post WWII, we were the only economy and stick around. We did the Berlin Airlift, still a marvel of precision and generosity that no other nation has ever done, before or since.

Part of our stick is nuclear and our standing military. Other part of the stick is economic. Military backs up the economic stick because they are so connected. Why the Soviet Union fell in the first place. When we (secretly) got involved in the Soviet/Afghan War, screwed the Soviets up. They could not rule with a depleted military.
txags92
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Who?mikejones! said:

txags92 said:

74OA said:

SamHou said:

I wish Trump would go with the stick approach - if no peace, then US sanctions China and India for oil purchases and supplies Ukraine with tomahawks. But that's a pipe dream

The stick is the only thing Russia in general and Putin in particular understands.

To make the stick a viable threat, sometimes you have to demonstrate the willingness to use it. Otherwise it is just empty words.


The only stick that will work would be western troops on the ground. Theres nothing left weapon wise that will turn this war.

There are ways we could turn the tide or at least stop the slow orc advances without boots on the ground. Shutting off russian export sales through punitive tariffs is one that would choke Russia's economy in short order. Giving Ukraine a significant number of Tomahawks and authorizing them to hit Russian oil export infrastructure. Using our airborne radar systems and other assets to vector interceptors to missiles and drones.
Who?mikejones!
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The issue is that that will take a while. Probably a long while to have any effect.

Putin isnt going to change his tune, especially so long as India, China, Germany and other keep buying their oil.

Sanctions won't stop this war. Weapons won't stop this war. Im not going to say we fully maxed their usefulness out; but they are probably not the answer you're looking for
Who?mikejones!
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Nuclear is not a stick here.
Waffledynamics
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Really impressive how Ukraine is holding this sector. It's still in imminent danger and most likely will fall soon, but they've been almost frozen like this for a while now.

Waffledynamics
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