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Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge
70,108 Views | 1025 Replies
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Pumpkinhead
5:59a, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
Putin seems to be getting the last three months a real opportunity to end a 'forever war' that the people of his country are also paying a heavy cost.

If he stays greedy and keeps pushing out of hubris and doesn't want to stop, that is on him. I'd recommend to stop solely taking Russia's viewpoints in this and call it like it is. They have a lot of shared blame on how this all played out and frankly, even more so now that they clearly are being given a chance to do their part to end it.
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No Spin Ag
6:33a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
FIDO_Ags said:
Goooood morning Planecrash! The Ukrainians don't have to push the Russians out, they just have to outlast them, which favors the Ukrainians in a defensive war.

All the anti-Ukrainian arguments like to echo Trump talking about ending the killing. Most of it is happening on the Russian side but I never hear you all talk about that. Putin could stop the killing today and save a lot of Russian mothers but won't. The pressure should be on Putin. POTUS is getting this one wrong and Putin's is playing Trump and Witcoff like a fiddle.


Pushing the Russians out is a requirement to declare anything more than a moral victory.


Taking all of Ukraine (Putin's original goal when he first invaded Ukraine) is a requirement to declare anything more than a moral victory.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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PlaneCrashGuy
6:54a, 5/1/25
In reply to No Spin Ag
I agree. The issue is time scales. Ukraine will likely never get back what it has lost, but Russia has demonstrated they have no problem waiting for the next democratic president to then take another bite at the apple.
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No Spin Ag
7:29a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
I agree. The issue is time scales. Ukraine will likely never get back what it has lost, but Russia has demonstrated they have no problem waiting for the next democratic president to then take another bite at the apple.


Pretty much. Considering the entire world though that Ukraine was going to be completely taken over in two weeks, with Zelensky likely murdered as well, it's hard not to see Ukraine looking better than anyone thought they would and Putin looking worse than he or his sycophants wanted.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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PlaneCrashGuy
7:46a, 5/1/25
In reply to No Spin Ag
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.
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docb
7:50a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.
I would say Russia is looking far worse than anyone thought. Hell I thought they had a legitimate military strength at the start of this thing. I think we can take them off the list as a real military threat at this point. They can't even take over Ukraine because we've given them a few weapons and no troops. Geez.
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No Spin Ag
7:56a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.


Had Ukraine been the aggressor and invader, that would make a lot more sense. I mean, what "victory" can Putin tell his people when he told them he would take all of Ukraine back into Russia, and now didn't?

A moral victory from the abused has a different feel than a moral victory for the abuser.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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nortex97
7:58a, 5/1/25
LOL @ the superimposed RT graphic, but I do have to say, I think Tucker goes…a tad overboard here.

Just my two cents.
Big drone/missile strikes on mainly Kiev/Odessa overnight. This is concerning if true, though half were claimed to have been shot down by Kiev so I am not sure what was really targeted:

Waltz claims we are close (again):
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PlaneCrashGuy
8:16a, 5/1/25
In reply to No Spin Ag
No Spin Ag said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.


Had Ukraine been the aggressor and invader, that would make a lot more sense. I mean, what "victory" can Putin tell his people when he told them he would take all of Ukraine back into Russia, and now didn't?

A moral victory from the abused has a different feel than a moral victory for the abuser.


I think Ukraine would prefer to have the 25% of its territory it lost more so than it appreciates being able to say we "looked better than anyone thought we would"

That is the definition of moral victory. And before you go on about Putin- Yes, Russia wont feel like a winner when this is ove either, which demonstrates why its time to end this Biden **** show and stop the killing.
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pagerman @ work
8:19a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
No Spin Ag said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.


Had Ukraine been the aggressor and invader, that would make a lot more sense. I mean, what "victory" can Putin tell his people when he told them he would take all of Ukraine back into Russia, and now didn't?

A moral victory from the abused has a different feel than a moral victory for the abuser.


I think Ukraine would prefer to have the 25% of its territory it lost more so than it appreciates being able to say we "looked better than anyone thought we would"

That is the definition of moral victory. And before you go on about Putin- Yes, Russia wont feel like a winner when this is ove either, which demonstrates why its time to end this Biden **** show and stop the killing.
It does no such thing.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
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FIDO_Ags
8:25a, 5/1/25
There is no moral victory in war. The term is incorrect. The mission of the US Infantry per FM 7-8 (the Infantry bible):

To close with the enemy by means of fire and maneuver to defeat or capture him, or to repel his assault by fire, close combat, and counterattack.

Current battlefield is a stalemate with neither side able to maneuver. Either Russia commits more forces to force Ukrainian surrender or they go home. It's that simple.
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No Spin Ag
8:30a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
No Spin Ag said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.


Had Ukraine been the aggressor and invader, that would make a lot more sense. I mean, what "victory" can Putin tell his people when he told them he would take all of Ukraine back into Russia, and now didn't?

A moral victory from the abused has a different feel than a moral victory for the abuser.


I think Ukraine would prefer to have the 25% of its territory it lost more so than it appreciates being able to say we "looked better than anyone thought we would"

That is the definition of moral victory. And before you go on about Putin- Yes, Russia wont feel like a winner when this is ove either, which demonstrates why its time to end this Biden **** show and stop the killing.


Again: If only Putin hadn't invaded there would have been no sheet show and no lives lost.

No one made Putin invade Ukraine. At the end of the day this is all on him.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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Who?mikejones!
8:31a, 5/1/25
In reply to FIDO_Ags
That's a false choice. Russia isn't going g to willingly give up their gains.
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FIDO_Ags
8:43a, 5/1/25
In reply to Who?mikejones!
True. And more Russian mothers will continue to grieve the loss of their sons until Russian decides they've had enough. Defensive war favors Ukraine at this point unless Russia commits more combat power to the fight to change the stalemate.
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PlaneCrashGuy
8:44a, 5/1/25
In reply to No Spin Ag
Now its your turn to look up incorrigible.

I appreciate the discussion.
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No Spin Ag
8:52a, 5/1/25
In reply to PlaneCrashGuy
PlaneCrashGuy said:
Now its your turn to look up incorrigible.

I appreciate the discussion.


Ditto. Now to the Google.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
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mickeyrig06sq3
9:01a, 5/1/25
In reply to No Spin Ag
No Spin Ag said:
PlaneCrashGuy said:
"looking better than anyone thought" is exactly the low bar for moral victory I was describing.


Had Ukraine been the aggressor and invader, that would make a lot more sense. I mean, what "victory" can Putin tell his people when he told them he would take all of Ukraine back into Russia, and now didn't?

A moral victory from the abused has a different feel than a moral victory for the abuser.

Have you seen their TV pundits and the propaganda they spew? He'll spin this, and the people will go with it. My guess is it will be something along the lines of l:

"We have freed those Russians living under Nazi Ukrainian oppression. The west has fallen for their lies, and continue to cause the deaths of our children. While we believe in our cause, the continued loss of Russian life is not worth the noble goal of saving the Ukrainian people. They have learned their lesson, and as long as they stay within their true borders and are no longer a threat to the Russian people, we will regretfully leave them to rot on the vine of western influence."
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Who?mikejones!
9:14a, 5/1/25
In reply to FIDO_Ags
I guess. The problem is those who disagree with putin too vigorously are disappeared.

If Russia were simply to decide it's gone far enough and purposely stops moving forward, there is little ukriane could do to dislodge it.
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nortex97
9:16a, 5/1/25
In reply to mickeyrig06sq3
Putin does view the corruption of Ukrainian society as a result of the maidan revolution as disgusting, no doubt. See: Easter drag show stuff in Kiev, and the sex trafficking/prostitution within the puppet regime etc. No real need to provide links to support this, I guess.

And yes, the Russians (not just Putin himself) see this to a degree as an existential fight:

Many European leaders clearly want to 'take the fight to Moscow' and this is unfortunately a threat the Russians have taken seriously.

Meanwhile, Gazprom just posted a $15 billion annual profit. Again, the war has not degraded Russia's army, nor harmed their oligarch/billionaire class. Quite the opposite actually.
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FIDO_Ags
9:34a, 5/1/25
In reply to Who?mikejones!
Agree. It is unfortunate for a Russian. That being said, Ukraine is playing the hand they've been dealt and making Putin realize Ukraine isn't Chechnya or Georgia.
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mickeyrig06sq3
10:16a, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
nortex97 said:
Putin does view the corruption of Ukrainian society as a result of the maidan revolution as disgusting, no doubt. See: Easter drag show stuff in Kiev, and the sex trafficking/prostitution within the puppet regime etc. No real need to provide links to support this, I guess.
The Russian people may believe that, but I guarantee you that he doesn't. Look at his history, both as president and the KGB. That's like saying that Putin believes in the constitution and the will of the people during their elections, or that Kim Jong Un really believes he's a god. The message is whatever it needs to be for the people to be compliant.
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mickeyrig06sq3
10:21a, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
nortex97 said:
Again, the war has not degraded Russia's army, nor harmed their oligarch/billionaire class. Quite the opposite actually.
Almost every stalemate war degrades an Army. If you're pulling resources from long abandoned inventory, you're degraded. If you don't operate in the Black Sea because your navy doesn't have the ability to control the area, you're degraded. If you're importing artillery from other countries to keep up, you're degraded. I'm not saying the Russian military is going to collapse and that Russia will implode, but to argue they're not degraded is just intellectual dishonesty.
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nortex97
10:27a, 5/1/25
In reply to mickeyrig06sq3
I think your post is comprised of a series of misnomers. The Russian military today has many more soldiers, less PMO's, more tanks/artillery/bombers/missiles, more procurement funding, and more production capacity (and actual production) of modern drones/missiles/combat aircraft than before the war.

I don't think these are contestable facts, and given those I am not sure how one can say it has 'degraded' their military.

The other 'problem' I see with an analysis that this has been a 'good war' for the anti-Russian side is that all of the metrics I've seen have shown that their ruling class/oligarchs/Putin pals etc. are by every substantive metric richer today than in early 2022. If the goal is to hurt/depose/harm Putin and his 'pals' this to me says the 'operation' has been a complete, abject failure.
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nortex97
2:43p, 5/1/25
Julie Davis is a solid pick. Previously worked in Belarus, surely familiar with money laundering operations there/Ukraine/Cyprus/Russia etc.

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FIDO_Ags
4:45p, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
Quote:
I don't think these are contestable facts, and given those I am not sure how one can say it has 'degraded' their military.


I don't think anyone ever argued their military wasn't large. I'll also agree that they aren't "degraded".

What they are is a poorly trained military that is incapable of combined arms warfare, can't maneuver except forward and reverse and most of their equipment is poorly maintained. At this point their only real capability is humane waves against an entrenched enemy and terror strikes against civilians with drones and missiles.
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CFO64763
5:56p, 5/1/25
If Russia refuses Trump's deal, then the U.S. could start arming and supporting the Ukrainian war efforts again.
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nortex97
5:58p, 5/1/25
In reply to FIDO_Ags
If their capability were limited to human waves the exchange rate for bodies wouldn't be what it is this year, nor would the demands for more air defense systems be what they are from Kiev.
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FIDO_Ags
6:28p, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
Quote:
If their capability were limited to human waves the exchange rate for bodies wouldn't be what it is this year, nor would the demands for more air defense systems be what they are from Kiev.


The exchange rate for bodies? Are you kidding?

Air defense, really? You're going to counter with that? Maybe the Ukrainians are tired of having civilian buildings hit by missiles and drones as part of Putin's terror campaign.

Also, how do you explain the current stalemate in Ukraine? The current recruiting and conscription push in Russia? Why can't Putin just leverage his military to win? This conflict should be done by now.
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Pumpkinhead
7:18p, 5/1/25
In reply to nortex97
nortex97 said:
If their capability were limited to human waves the exchange rate for bodies wouldn't be what it is this year, nor would the demands for more air defense systems be what they are from Kiev.


Seriously WTF would you know about what exactly is happening over there? You post as though you have accurate numbers on 'exchange rates' etc. when you are presumably just some guy simply browsing the vast internet for whatever social media post fits an argument you are trying to make. Which you can easily do. I can google for stuff on the internet saying the earth is flat and I will find 'proof'.
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GAC06
8:37p, 5/1/25
In reply to Pumpkinhead
Expect a wall of tweets at 5am CST, 1pm Moscow time
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PlaneCrashGuy
9:03p, 5/1/25
Peace in the region cannot come soon enough.
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nortex97
5:53a, 5/2/25
In reply to Pumpkinhead
Pumpkinhead said:
nortex97 said:
If their capability were limited to human waves the exchange rate for bodies wouldn't be what it is this year, nor would the demands for more air defense systems be what they are from Kiev.
Seriously WTF would you know about what exactly is happening over there? You post as though you have accurate numbers on 'exchange rates' etc. when you are presumably just some guy simply browsing the vast internet for whatever social media post fits an argument you are trying to make.
People track this stuff, fyi. Sorry the war is not going as you might have hoped. Kiev Post: JD Vance says "war won't end any time soon" and US quits as mediator.

Most of this stuff comes via Ukrainian sources, again just fyi, and while not a 'perfect' data source (as noted above) it's not just a fabricated data set by any means:

Anti-Brussels/Nato/war candidates in Romania/Poland: "Make Europe Great again"
Quote:
Simion said he knows that if he wins he will be the most likely of any of the remaining candidates to have warm relations with President Trump and the United States. Simion also mentioned that Poland, which is also having its presidential elections in May, has a similar opportunity to elect a fresh young anti-globalist conservative. The two of them are essentially running as a ticket, freaking Brussels out even more.

"I am not hopingI know," he replied when asked if he hopes to have close relations with Trump if he wins. "I am the only one who has channels to the Trump administration. The Trump administration doesn't want to talk with our public government selected by Brussels. Yes, America would be our main focus and key strategic partner. We are the natural partners and we are ideologically the same with the MAGA movement. You can consider me a MAGA candidatethe only MAGA candidate in the Romanian election. But what's more interesting and important is I'm also supporting the Polish candidate in their presidential elections on the same day in Poland. Karol Nawrocki, the successor of Andrzej Duda, is the candidate of the party of Mr. [Jarosaw] Kaczyski. We would be two presidents that if we win the elections in May would be pro-Trump presidents, pro-freedom presidents, and against the Brussels bureaucracy.
Serbian President Vucic is going to Moscow for May Day parade next week.

Geroman has a lot of updates this afternoon/morning, including Pokrovsk direction:


Half awol, but forever war!
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Pumpkinhead
6:15a, 5/2/25
In reply to nortex97
You just did yet again exactly what I said you have repetitively been doing. You have searched the internet to find posters/bloggers/etc. posting stuff that fits and confirms your own biases and viewpoints. Which has clearly and always been primarily anti-West/Ukraine and pro-Russia. Similarly, You could find a bunch of stuff indicating immense losses on the Russian side, if that was your viewpoint. you don't know the validity or accuracy of the information you are reading but repost and spread it around as facts.

It is….the internet.
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nortex97
6:32a, 5/2/25
In reply to Pumpkinhead
Certainly no argument that I am for posting things I find at least mostly accurate.

I don't expect everyone to agree with me, and there are many discussions around pro-war/Kiev narratives on the internet, so I am not sure why my posts on the topics seem to raise the ire of some.

Sigh…yes.
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Sq 17
6:46a, 5/2/25
In reply to CFO64763
CFO64763 said:
If Russia refuses Trump's deal, then the U.S. could start arming and supporting the Ukrainian war efforts again.


I'll take things that won't happen for $1000, Alex
The MAGA faithful will not tolerate open support from DJT. Possibly EU arms flow at faster rate. With no peace deal in the offing and the US withdrawing from the situation They might
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