Russo Ukrainian peace on a knife's edge

70,006 Views | 1025 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by nortex97
nortex97
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Quote:

Kim Jong Un is about as elected as Putin. Even Stalin was "elected".

Why do we need trade with Russia more than any other country? Why are they special to you? They recently seized a large American owned company with no compensation, do you support that action? Anywhere else in the world and Trump would have been tweeting out fire over it.

Do you really think that Russia is more free than the UK?
"More than any other" is another 'interesting' interpretation of what I have ever stated. Not real clear what else you are referencing. I am not going to go into an elaborate discussion on Putin's electoral track record (no, Navalny was not a real threat), but even the Atlantic Council (!!) has noted his enduring popularity at home.

As to religion (above post), something like 10% of Russia is islamic, and ethnically it's at least as diverse as we are.

Yes, I think speech, and even silent public prayer in the UK are more restrictively limited than in Russia. It's much closer in many key parts to becoming an islamic country. In fact, American speech rights and companies are much more threatened by the EU and UK laws, than anything going on in Russia.

PlaneCrashGuy
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I like this from Trump
nortex97
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Just another day in Kiev, as the Russians prepare for the annual celebration of crushing the Nazi's in WW2. Desperate gamble with teens/women as cannon fodder.

Dreams of a terrorist future, from a sitting member of parliament:

And reality:

Sitrep: Russian vice tightens.

CS78
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nortex97 said:

Dreams of a terrorist future, from a sitting member of parliament:


Wouldn't you feel the same if someone invaded your country, shelled your towns, killed your family and friends, and stole your children?

You think Putin gives a damn? He's helped more generals out of high windows than the Ukes could ever car bomb.

nortex97
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After the war of northern aggression Robert E Lee specifically warned against continuing 'the cause' via such acts/guerrilla warfare/terrorism.

That is just what a civilized people do, when defeated, as with the Japanese/Germans/Italians at the end of WW2.

Yep.
CS78
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nortex97 said:

After the war of northern aggression Robert E Lee specifically warned against continuing 'the cause' via such acts/guerrilla warfare/terrorism.

That is just what a civilized people do, when defeated, as with the Japanese/Germans/Italians at the end of WW2.


Except those people were actually defeated. Really not comparable to the current situation. Russia blew it's wad and cant achieve it's goals. Ukraine has mounted a very impressive defense. Either, enough pressure is put on Putin to go home. Or this thing is still going on in 5+ years. The Ukes aren't going to accept a loss when they aren't beaten. Russia doesn't have what it takes to defeat them. Even without us. It'll just flare right back up.
PlaneCrashGuy
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I don't think Ukrainians incentivizing Russia to pursue complete annihilation is a well thought out plan, nor good idea for Ukraine.
FIDO_Ags
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And that may be true, but Russia certainly hasn't demonstrated that it's time for Ukraine to capitulate either.
4
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I really don't care anymore.

Two corrupt leaders of **** hole countries on the other side of the world want to tear each other apart? Go ahead.

Just do it without our money.
pagerman @ work
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4 said:

I really don't care anymore.

Two corrupt leaders of **** hole countries on the other side of the world want to tear each other apart? Go ahead.

Just do it without our money.

But then Trump wouldn't get a Nobel.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
nortex97
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Quote:

Ukraine could face a significant defeat in the near future if it does not sit down at the negotiating table with Russia, US President Donald Trump has warned.

Trump made his comments in an interview with The Atlantic published on Monday. When asked whether he has sympathy for Kiev, the president replied by saying that his policy is aimed at "saving" Ukraine and warned that continued conflict would not bring the country any good.

"I think I'm saving that nation. I think that nation will be crushed very shortly," he said, adding that Russia has a "big war machine. Let's face it."

Separately, US Vice President J.D. Vance also emphasized on Monday that Kiev would not win the conflict against Moscow. "If this doesn't stop, the Ukrainians aren't winning the war," Vance, a US Marine Corps veteran, told Charlie Kirk. He also said it was "weird" to expect Russia to collapse because of the ongoing hostilities.

PlaneCrashGuy
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How many more dead Ukrainians until your threshold for an acceptable surrender is met?
FIDO_Ags
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The onus is on the attacker…how many more Russian mothers have to grieve over losing a son in a pointless war fighting against a determined enemy fighting for their sovereign survival?

Edit to add that Ukrainians at least know what they are fighting for. Russian soldiers don't have that luxury.
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

The onus is on the attacker…how many more Russian mothers have to grieve over losing a son in a pointless war fighting against a determined enemy fighting for their sovereign survival?

Edit to add that Ukrainians at least know what they are fighting for. Russian soldiers don't have that luxury.


You said Russia has not demonstrated it is time to capitulate, I asked you how many dead Ukrainians would it take to become "time to capitulate" in your opinion? Can you answer numerically?
FIDO_Ags
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Glad you bolded my sentence for me to help make my point. Since the Russians voluntarily invaded a sovereign country to subjugate its people, then they can decide when they have had enough. They can send more Russian young men to die to achieve an unconditional surrender or they can stop. It's really that simple.

And your Ukrainian numerical question is just dumb. You're an Aggie, be better than that. They are fighting to NOT be Russian so their battlefield calculus may be to the last man. Who knows? What I do know is that it is not when POTUS and VPOTUS decide it's enough. That much is clear.

When the Russians break Ukrainian will, Ukraine will surrender. But as much as you and others believe that has happened, you're just wrong. You want evidence? The Ukrainians are still on the battlefield after three years holding their own against the Russians with no sign of capitulating.
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

Glad you bolded my sentence for me to help make my point. Since the Russians voluntarily invaded a sovereign country to subjugate its people, then they can decide when they have had enough. They can send more Russian young men to die to achieve an unconditional surrender or they can stop. It's really that simple.

And your Ukrainian numerical question is just dumb. You're an Aggie, be better than that. They are fighting to NOT be Russian so their battlefield calculus may be to the last man. Who knows? What I do know is that it is not when POTUS and VPOTUS decide it's enough. That much is clear.

When the Russians break Ukrainian will, Ukraine will surrender. But as much as you and others believe that has happened, you're just wrong. You want evidence? The Ukrainians are still on the battlefield after three years holding their own against the Russians with no sign of capitulating.


It isn't a hard question to answer, but the point I was making is that you can't/won't answer it.If you're waiting for Russia to give up and go home, history says you're going to be waiting awhile very long time. Ukraine isn't holding its own. It has lost about 25% of its country. It's time to negotiate an end to this.
FIDO_Ags
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Tell you what, go ahead and bookmark this thread. Next year at this time when this war is still going on and Russia still only holds 25% of Ukraine, you can ask yourself if Russia is winning. History has examples of both.
pagerman @ work
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

How many more dead Ukrainians until your threshold for an acceptable surrender is met?

How ever many the Ukrainians believe is required.

It is not our place to tell them what their country is worth.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy. It's inherent virtue is the equal sharing of miseries." - Winston Churchill
docb
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Russia may have 20% of Ukraine but they are 3 years in and seem to be stalled out for the most part. Now Ukraine has developed long range drones and rudimentary cruise missiles bringing the war further into Russia than ever before. While I doubt Ukraine can re-take everything lost, I would not discount their resilience.
nortex97
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Waltz:
Quote:

"I will say Ukraine was one of, and is one of, the most corrupt countries in the world," Waltz said, highlighting that Washington has to "always guard the taxpayer dollars."

The official also rebuked the administration of Trump's predecessor for its failure to provide proper oversight of the way Kiev was spending the financial aid provided by the White House at the time.

"We have to keep a hard eye on that, […] but secondly we have to find opportunities to end the war," he said.

Waltz, who had previously said that Washington must be reimbursed by Kiev for the "investments" it has made in the conflict, also accused the Ukrainian leader of intractability. He recalled the shouting match which took place at the White House earlier this year.

"Rather than trying to correct the President of the US and the Vice President in the Oval Office when he was invited there for the first meeting, he could have sat side by side with the president, signing a minerals deal that bound our economies,"the adviser said.

That figure, per WSJ, are enlistments/sign-ups, not conscripts.
Pumpkinhead
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https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024

Corruption perception index rankings:

U.S. 28
Ukraine 104
Russia 154
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

Tell you what, go ahead and bookmark this thread. Next year at this time when this war is still going on and Russia still only holds 25% of Ukraine, you can ask yourself if Russia is winning. History has examples of both.


Setting any perceived moral victories aside, if Russia holds more of Ukraine than Ukraine holds of Russia, yes Russia is winning. That will always be true. A bookmark is not needed because no one seriously believes Ukraine can kick Russia out by force.
FIDO_Ags
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Thanks for proving my point by mentioning russian enlistments are up Now do some research on how and why those enlistments are up.
FIDO_Ags
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Goooood morning Planecrash! The Ukrainians don't have to push the Russians out, they just have to outlast them, which favors the Ukrainians in a defensive war.

All the anti-Ukrainian arguments like to echo Trump talking about ending the killing. Most of it is happening on the Russian side but I never hear you all talk about that. Putin could stop the killing today and save a lot of Russian mothers but won't. The pressure should be on Putin. POTUS is getting this one wrong and Putin's is playing Trump and Witcoff like a fiddle.
nortex97
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I already am aware the Russian army pays comparatively better than almost any other on the planet. Not a real big mystery really.


Debt forgiveness, signing bonus of around $20-30K, and the annual salary puts new recruits (in units generally around Moscow) in the top 1% of income in Russia. Jobs in the 'civilian' sector are scarce because their economy is close to over-heating.

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Europe…
FIDO_Ags
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That's not research, that's marketing. Research why the Russians are providing those incentives.

Edit to add…and find out where many of those enlistments are coming from.
nortex97
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I just don't take internet commands/orders very well. You'll have to do better. Thx though. Not real sure we'll reach any kind of agreement, fwiw.

LOL this is genuinely hilarious:

The CSCE Helsinki folks need some DOGE. Really, it just needs to be abandoned/destroyed.
Quote:

The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the Helsinki Commission, is an independent U.S. Government agency created in 1976 to monitor and encourage compliance with the Helsinki Final Act and other OSCE commitments.

The Commission contributes to the formulation of U.S. policy on the OSCE and takes part in its execution, including through Member and staff participation on U.S. Delegations to OSCE meetings and in certain OSCE bodies. Members of the Commission have regular contact with parliamentarians, government officials, NGOs, and private individuals from other OSCE participating States.

The Commission convenes public hearings and briefings with expert witnesses on OSCE-related issues; issues public reports concerning implementation of OSCE commitments in participating States; and organizes official delegations to participating States and OSCE meetings to address and assess democratic, economic, security, and human rights developments firsthand.

Commissioners communicate with the President of the United States, the Secretary of State and other senior U.S. officials and issue public statements on matters of concern as needed. Commissioners and staff meet officials and prominent visitors from other OSCE States in Washington, and travel to countries of concern to monitor and encourage implementation more directly, including through election observation.
FIDO_Ags
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It wasn't an order, it's texags, you can do what you want. But it wasn't research.

As an FYI, throwing bodies at a problem isn't winning, it's just throwing bodies at a problem. Being able to maneuver when on the offensive is winning and despite all the posted tweets, the Russians can't maneuver nor gain the air superiority to allow maneuver.
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

Goooood morning Planecrash! The Ukrainians don't have to push the Russians out, they just have to outlast them, which favors the Ukrainians in a defensive war.

All the anti-Ukrainian arguments like to echo Trump talking about ending the killing. Most of it is happening on the Russian side but I never hear you all talk about that. Putin could stop the killing today and save a lot of Russian mothers but won't. The pressure should be on Putin. POTUS is getting this one wrong and Putin's is playing Trump and Witcoff like a fiddle.


Pushing the Russians out is a requirement to declare anything more than a moral victory.
PlaneCrashGuy
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FIDO_Ags said:

It wasn't an order, it's texags, you can do what you want. But it wasn't research.

As an FYI, throwing bodies at a problem isn't winning, it's just throwing bodies at a problem. Being able to maneuver when on the offensive is winning and despite all the posted tweets, the Russians can't maneuver nor gain the air superiority to allow maneuver.


Taking land is the definition of winning.
Losing and is the definition of losing.

Anything beyond that is spin/cope.
docb
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

FIDO_Ags said:

It wasn't an order, it's texags, you can do what you want. But it wasn't research.

As an FYI, throwing bodies at a problem isn't winning, it's just throwing bodies at a problem. Being able to maneuver when on the offensive is winning and despite all the posted tweets, the Russians can't maneuver nor gain the air superiority to allow maneuver.


Taking land is the definition of winning.
Losing and is the definition of losing.

Anything beyond that is spin/cope.
While you are at it go ahead and look up the definition of incorrigible for yourself
J. Walter Weatherman
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PlaneCrashGuy said:

FIDO_Ags said:

It wasn't an order, it's texags, you can do what you want. But it wasn't research.

As an FYI, throwing bodies at a problem isn't winning, it's just throwing bodies at a problem. Being able to maneuver when on the offensive is winning and despite all the posted tweets, the Russians can't maneuver nor gain the air superiority to allow maneuver.


Taking land is the definition of winning.
Losing and is the definition of losing.

Anything beyond that is spin/cope.


So Russia has been losing since their initial invasion?
PlaneCrashGuy
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Russia lost a ton of land in the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Since that stalled well short of its stated objectives, Russia's been gaining ground slowly. I suspect Ukraine getting kicked out of Kursk will prove to be costly for them.
Pumpkinhead
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Vietnam underdog supplied by Soviet's/China eventually broke the U.S. after about 10 years. Afghanistan underdogs supplied by the U.S.and trying to play Star Wars with Reagan eventually broke the Soviet Union.

Even very conservative estimates have Russian casualties at about 150K+ KIA these first 3 years plus who knows how many wounded. That is gaining some territory at an awful grinding cost.

Now that the U.S. signed the minerals deal with Ukraine and has raised its potential economic interests there, will that facilitate Trump admin with an excuse of continuing military support to Ukraine if Russia appears to be the primary side unwilling to negotiate a peace deal?
nortex97
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The 'minerals deal' or fund is more Ukrainian scams, likely. CTH:
Quote:

Will U.S. taxpayers ever see a dime repaid? Probably not, because the proceeds will likely end up in the pockets of the professional political class; however, the concept is a good idea in principle. It is more than likely Zelenskyy has sold his "minerals" to several countries in his perpetual tin cup tour. The 'investment fund' aspect is just another way to transfer proceeds into the bank accounts of U.S. Senators.
As has been stated, they also have mythologized both the presence and value of 'rare earth elements' that are economically recoverable in Ukraine. So, whatever. In any case, one can't get to 'reconstruction' costs until the war stops, despite Zelensky and the EU not wanting it to do so. Even still, it's farcical at very best:


Sigh, at least it doesn't commit us to anything.

Euro's freak out about massive 'rear' reserve force Russians have built up: derp, this has been obvious for 2 years.

Quote:

So, Russia is reportedly producing 300 T-90Ms and sending virtually all of them to the newly-constituted rear reserve units. This vindicates those readers who've long suspected that Russia was "holding back the best stuff" and using lower tier gear on the active front. I myself was admittedly not a particular devotee of that line of reasoning, but it seems even I may have been wrong on that count. It certainly would explain the lack of recent sightings of T-90Ms, BMPT Terminators, and other such 'fancy' gear on the frontRussia would apparently rather save the good stuff for a clash against NATO itself.

So much for Kiev winning in some notional way a war of attrition.

Orban and Fico warn of 'liquidation of the EU' if Ukraine is admitted:
Quote:

The concept of unanimity was a crucial element in the formation of the bloc, ensuring that smaller countries would not be overpowered by larger players such as France and Germany. However, there has been increasing disdain for the democratic checks on power as the globalist blob within Brussels has expanded its influence.

Taking to the podium, Prime Minister Fico said: "I hereby call on the decisive players within the European Union to listen to us and not to take any steps that would lead to the liquidation of the EU. Ending the right of veto would be a step leading to the end of the European Union. I am one hundred per cent convinced of this."

"The EU will be strong if it can find agreement within the diversity of views present, the union will be strong if it respects the sovereign viewpoints of the member states and if it returns to respecting the values of democracy and the rule of law, as this is not always the case," he added.
Forever war, comrades!
 
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