Let's debate interest rates.......Trump vs Powell who is correct?

13,366 Views | 213 Replies | Last: 18 hrs ago by Logos Stick
Krombopulos Michael
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:31a, 7/9/25


Trump should be happy with .5% at the end of July.

It's time for the cut, inflation is down enough and UE is starting to tick up. Not to mention housing and CRE are locking up.


3% is absolutely freaking insane. Inflation would explode higher and not just that "transitory" kind.
Reply Quote
7
BigRobSA
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 9:34a, 7/9/25
Krombopulos Michael said:


Trump should be happy with .5% at the end of July.

It's time for the cut, inflation is down enough and UE is starting to tick up. Not to mention housing and CRE are locking up.


3% is absolutely freaking insane. Inflation would explode higher and not just that "transitory" kind.
LOL

No it isn't. Gov't figures are down, the same ones that were wrong under Biden, and all of the last several Presidents at least. That's not on Trump, as it's a well-known govt failure (amongst a LOOOOOOOOONG list of them, as is natural of "gov't" ).
Reply Quote
30
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:35a, 7/9/25
janet yellen should go to jail for her ineptitude

as far as the rates trumps whole tarriff game plan is somewhat predicated on a willing dance partner in the FED. so far powell hasn't heard the music
Reply Quote
37
1 edit
Krombopulos Michael
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BigRobSA • 9:38a, 7/9/25
Trade the market you have, not the one you want.

I agree inflation sucks and is way over where we should be but the "official inflation rate" is near the Fed's 2% target.

Reply Quote
5
Martin Q. Blank
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 9:38a, 7/9/25
Quote:
Not to mention housing and CRE are locking up.
Powell said he's specifically targeting real estate.
Reply Quote
aggiegolfer2012
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
9:44a, 7/9/25
Powell is probably slow, tariffs have calmed a bit and I think it's time for a drop. For the most part, Trump does well with the economy. But at the same time, how does anybody make major economic or business moves when you don't know what Trump is going to do next.
Trump is wrong about where he wants them to end up, but they should come down.
Reply Quote
4
Ellis Wyatt
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 9:46a, 7/9/25
IMO, rates should not be lowered and they should not have been for most of the last 25 years.

BUT Powell is playing politics and nothing more. He lowered rates last year to help Kamala get elected. If he were consistent, he would lower rates now. He is a partisan *******.
Reply Quote
60
Ellis Wyatt
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 9:47a, 7/9/25
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
janet yellen should go to jail for her ineptitude
It was politics, not ineptitude. She was serving the democrat party, not America.
Reply Quote
39
Krombopulos Michael
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 9:48a, 7/9/25
Trump should have never appointed him then.....

Only the best people right?
Reply Quote
7
Ellis Wyatt
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 9:55a, 7/9/25
Krombopulos Michael said:
Trump should have never appointed him then.....

Only the best people right?
We are well past that. Trump could never have anticipated the opposition he faced on many fronts. Our federal government is infested with radical leftists who hate Trump more than they love America.

But you are correct, Powell was a bad hire.
Reply Quote
41
Logos Stick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:00a, 7/9/25
Powell is right. 4% is a good rate and I would not go lower until we encounter a recession.

During the Clinton admin, we averaged about 5.25%. During W, the average was appx 3% with a high of 5.25% right before the Housing crash.

Bernanke broke us with the post-TARP easy money philosophy during Obama.

Reply Quote
31
2 edits
Krombopulos Michael
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 10:00a, 7/9/25
He was better than Grandma Yellen but thats not a high bar.

Bottom line, we need to have an adult conversation about the way our economy functions and most importantly who has the power to pull the levers.

The manipulation of all markets has gone WAY too far.
Reply Quote
2
aTmAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:12a, 7/9/25
AG
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.
Reply Quote
22
flown-the-coop
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 10:13a, 7/9/25
AG
Krombopulos Michael said:
He was better than Grandma Yellen but thats not a high bar.

Bottom line, we need to have an adult conversation about the way our economy functions and most importantly who has the power to pull the levers.

The manipulation of all markets has gone WAY too far.
Edit to remove my error. I had no idea that idiot Yellen had served as fed reserve chair. ****, a dead body has more coherent thoughts than her.

That aside, it would be normal for a POTUS to speak and influence markets. He is quite literally the most powerful man in the world.

However, it should not be normal for Fed Reserve Chairman to be pontificating constantly on his thoughts on POTUS policy, fear mongering and other antics all designed to undermine the administration because Powell thinks Trump is a big ol dumb meanie.

Powell is a hack and if he had any decency at this point he would simply resign.

Trump has said he listened to the advice of others during 1st admin as you get things like Rogue POTUS wannabe Powell.
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
Windy City Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:13a, 7/9/25
AG
Follow the Taylor Rule . . . .It is calling for a Fed Funds Rate of 5.8% right now.

That is always the problem with politicians try to jawbone rates. They don't want recessions, so they beg or demand for monetary stimulus no matter the longer term cost. I would say this is typical third world dictator crap but too many U.S. Presidents have a long history of bashing independent Fed policy.

Harry Truman openly mocked Thomas McCabe and forced his resignation. Truman wanted low rates to finance Korean war spending.

LBJ literally shoved around Bill Martin at his ranch.

Interestingly, in both instances the Fed was correct . . .inflation spiked pretty heavily in the immediate wake of both Truman and LBJ's administrations although the root causes of each are still debated.

I think a big part of this debate is we are all anchoring on the low inflation, near deflation anomaly decade of the 2010s. If that is the baselines going forward, then Powell is wrong. If we are back to our more normal long run, economic state, the current Fed rate is pretty average and not a cause for alarm.





Reply Quote
12
Windy City Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aTmAg • 10:15a, 7/9/25
AG
Quote:
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.
Reply Quote
6
B-1 83
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:25a, 7/9/25
AG
In my naive economics world, I'd love to see the tariffs settled followed by an immediate 1/2% cut.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Reply Quote
2
Kansas Kid
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aTmAg • 10:27a, 7/9/25
aTmAg said:
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.
This is the correct answer.

What Trump isn't mentioning/considering is artificially low rates are essentially a tax on savers such as retirees. There is no way interest rates should be as low as Trump is saying. That would be negative real rates which is not healthy for the economy.
Reply Quote
6
billydean05
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:31a, 7/9/25
Fed chair is correct. Why with good growth would we lower rates when inflation is still above target? Decrease the debt or at least quit increasing deficits. Also the fed should clear off much of its balance sheet that has exploded trillions of dollars since Bernanke before cutting rates.
Reply Quote
6
halfastros81
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:33a, 7/9/25
AG
I honestly think Powell is right. Rates are not historically high and I'd prefer to make sure inflation is below target before they drop rates .
Reply Quote
13
Kansas Kid
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Windy City Ag • 10:34a, 7/9/25
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.
If you think the Great Financial crisis was caused by free markets, think again. Federal government policies were largely to blame for the crisis. They highly incentivized home ownership/lending to people who had no business buying a house among many issues. The government backstop of many loans via Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA, meant lenders felt like they would be made whole even if loans failed.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/norbertmichel/2015/01/26/government-policies-caused-the-financial-crisis-and-made-the-recession-worse/
Reply Quote
5
1 edit
aTmAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Windy City Ag • 10:38a, 7/9/25
AG
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.
Incorrect. The worst moments you speak of were caused by government intrusion prior. They weren't "freezing up", they were responding properly to the idiocy prior.

For example, some people blame the deflation for the great depression. But they don't realize it was the inflation PRIOR that caused it. The deflation was the market returning it back to normal. It's like blaming detox for the misery rather than the drug use prior.
Reply Quote
6
TexAgs91
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ellis Wyatt • 10:39a, 7/9/25
AG
Ellis Wyatt said:
Krombopulos Michael said:
Trump should have never appointed him then.....

Only the best people right?
We are well past that. Trump could never have anticipated the opposition he faced on many fronts. Our federal government is infested with radical leftists who hate Trump more than they love America.

But you are correct, Powell was a bad hire.
It's easy to toss out a line that never trumpers can grunt, giggle and nod their heads at. It doesn't require any thought and you can gloss over all the reasons why things are the way they are.
Reply Quote
3
HTownAg98
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Windy City Ag • 10:39a, 7/9/25
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.

I saw something the other day that said "you can spin the economy all you want, but you can't spin the bond market," and it's 100% correct. How the bond market reacts to news is a pretty solid indicator of where things are headed.
Reply Quote
6
Bondag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:42a, 7/9/25
AG
The way I understand it from economics if the bank wants to charge someone 5% interest and they don't have the money, I can loan the bank the money in return for 4% interest.

If the government inserts themselves in the process I'm getting **** in return for any money that I have in the bank.

Reply Quote
1
rathAG05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aggiegolfer2012 • 10:43a, 7/9/25
AG
He always overshoots. He probably wants a 1.5% cut which is reasonable if done over 6 - 9 months.
Reply Quote
Ag13
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Krombopulos Michael • 10:47a, 7/9/25
AG
Krombopulos Michael said:


Trump should be happy with .5% at the end of July.

It's time for the cut, inflation is down enough and UE is starting to tick up. Not to mention housing and CRE are locking up.


3% is absolutely freaking insane. Inflation would explode higher and not just that "transitory" kind.
Market is heavily on the side of there being no rate cuts in July. 50 bps in July would be a huge shock at this point. Also unemployment is actually ticking down per the jobs report last week.
Reply Quote
2
Logos Stick
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Ag13 • 10:49a, 7/9/25
Market is also predicting >= 2.6% YoY inflation for June.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
I Am A Critic
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
10:54a, 7/9/25
Trump's looking for an easy win. Let's be honest, the majority of his voters aren't of the educated, critical thinking type like most are here, especially when it comes to macroeconomics. They'll take "lowering something that we think should be lower" as a win and be completely clueless to the overall effects both near and short term.
Username checks out.
Reply Quote
5
BoydCrowder13
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:03a, 7/9/25
Independent Fed is a good thing. Politicians are always going to be focused on short-term wins to the detriment of the country long-term.
Reply Quote
19
javajaws
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:04a, 7/9/25
AG
1) Trump always asks for more than he expects to get
2) Whenever they do drop rates (for whatever amount) he'll be able to tell everyone it was done because of his pressure on the fed.


Politics as usual.
Reply Quote
4
Daddy
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BoydCrowder13 • 11:07a, 7/9/25
AG
BoydCrowder13 said:
Independent Fed is a good thing. Politicians are always going to be focused on short-term wins to the detriment of the country long-term.


Federal reserve is a scam
Taking our money

It should be abolished
Reply Quote
12
Windy City Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Kansas Kid • 11:11a, 7/9/25
AG
Quote:
If you think the Great Financial crisis was caused by free markets, think again. Federal government policies were largely to blame for the crisis. They highly incentivized home ownership/lending to people who had no business buying a house among many issues. The government backstop of many loans via Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA, meant lenders felt like they would be made whole even if loans failed.

So yes . .the agencies played one part. There were myriad factors though including:

1) a general, bi-partisan relaxation in financial firm regulation under the Clinton Administration that allowed for much great leverage at non-banks and for commercial banks to merge with those non-banks

2) Basic fraud in loan approval at most non-agency lenders

3) Ratings agencies supporting it all through inaccurate bond ratings on MBS offering

Pretty much every jumbo-oriented lender from Country Wide to Washington Mutual went under for non-agency reasons.

Agencies had nothing to do with investment banks levering to the hilt to build and trade worthless OTC investment products. Agencies had nothing to due with insurance companies like AIG bankrupting themselves through financial product speculation.

And most everyone was shocked at what went on with someone actually combed through the books of these firms and a lot that took place because of the general and now discarded belief that markets can police potential fraud and creditworthiness of loans in a better fashion than regulators.
Reply Quote
Windy City Ag
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Daddy • 11:12a, 7/9/25
AG
Quote:
Federal reserve is a scam
Taking our money

It should be abolished

How does it take your money?
Reply Quote
3
TXLandAg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to halfastros81 • 11:13a, 7/9/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
I honestly think Powell is right. Rates are not historically high and I'd prefer to make sure inflation is below target before they drop rates .

So why did he lower it before the election?
Reply Quote
8
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.