He (Powell) gone.

I worry about inflation and refinancing the debt. Right now I think this is a plus.for now

EDIT

Well many several posts on X say this, but I don't find anything definitive. So I take back ths post, for now.

There is nothing wrong with what Powell is doing. The Obama years of free money needed to be stamped out and the market needs to be balanced at the historical rate of about 5% (ish), rather than anything lower than that.

This is essentially reloading the cannon when another true recession hits and they can actually drop rates.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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If you think the Great Financial crisis was caused by free markets, think again. Federal government policies were largely to blame for the crisis. They highly incentivized home ownership/lending to people who had no business buying a house among many issues. The government backstop of many loans via Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA, meant lenders felt like they would be made whole even if loans failed.

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So yes . .the agencies played one part. There were myriad factors though including:

1) a general, bi-partisan relaxation in financial firm regulation under the Clinton Administration that allowed for much great leverage at non-banks and for commercial banks to merge with those non-banks

2) Basic fraud in loan approval at most non-agency lenders

3) Ratings agencies supporting it all through inaccurate bond ratings on MBS offering

Pretty much every jumbo-oriented lender from Country Wide to Washington Mutual went under for non-agency reasons.

Agencies had nothing to do with investment banks levering to the hilt to build and trade worthless OTC investment products. Agencies had nothing to due with insurance companies like AIG bankrupting themselves through financial product speculation.

And most everyone was shocked at what went on with someone actually combed through the books of these firms and a lot that took place because of the general and now discarded belief that markets can police potential fraud and creditworthiness of loans in a better fashion than regulators.

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It was not just "one part". Government was primarily responsible.

Under a free market, stupid decisions are punished swiftly through bankruptcy. Under our current system it is rewarded and eventually bailed out. It's ridiculous.

Windy City Ag said:

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Federal reserve is a scam
Taking our money

It should be abolished

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How does it take your money?

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He clearly means purchasing power.

I thought we have quantum computers to consider all the variables and come up with the best, unbiased/objective, interest rate.

As much as I'm on the boat of abolishing the Fed, infinite QE? Anyone who thinks this is a good idea, wants the can to be kicked farther and further out. Markets can't quit the low intrest addiction.

aTmAg said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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If you think the Great Financial crisis was caused by free markets, think again. Federal government policies were largely to blame for the crisis. They highly incentivized home ownership/lending to people who had no business buying a house among many issues. The government backstop of many loans via Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA, meant lenders felt like they would be made whole even if loans failed.

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So yes . .the agencies played one part. There were myriad factors though including:

1) a general, bi-partisan relaxation in financial firm regulation under the Clinton Administration that allowed for much great leverage at non-banks and for commercial banks to merge with those non-banks

2) Basic fraud in loan approval at most non-agency lenders

3) Ratings agencies supporting it all through inaccurate bond ratings on MBS offering

Pretty much every jumbo-oriented lender from Country Wide to Washington Mutual went under for non-agency reasons.

Agencies had nothing to do with investment banks levering to the hilt to build and trade worthless OTC investment products. Agencies had nothing to due with insurance companies like AIG bankrupting themselves through financial product speculation.

And most everyone was shocked at what went on with someone actually combed through the books of these firms and a lot that took place because of the general and now discarded belief that markets can police potential fraud and creditworthiness of loans in a better fashion than regulators.

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It was not just "one part". Government was primarily responsible.

Under a free market, stupid decisions are punished swiftly through bankruptcy. Under our current system it is rewarded and eventually bailed out. It's ridiculous.

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The other key issue was the implied and in some cases expressed guarantee of federal loans that encouraged excessive lending. Were there some other causes, yes but the lions share goes to the usual cause of major economic problems, government policy even if it usually is well intentioned.

I don't know altho I suspect at the behest of the Biden/Harris puppeteers. I think it was wrong then and also now. I'm not saying he's unbiased or fair, I just think at this time it may not be the best thing to lower rates until they get inflation below target levels.

If inflation does drop below target levels and he still refuses to lower rates then that's not the right approach and is likely purely political unless perhaps employment numbers improve as well.

Powell has been bad at his job and continues to be bad.

you can actually smell the desperation coming from Truth Social......

BREAKING: President Trump says Fed Chair Powell "demeans the great credit of the USA." https://t.co/0RBKxsf9Bp pic.twitter.com/kAps1gXRpY

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 10, 2025

You know what would give people real confidence in the US economy? Not protecting pedophiles in government.....

How are pedophiles being protected? Also, another Jerome Powell thread turning into an Epstein pouty session… lawd.

But Trump is right on rates as he has been right on just about everything. Powell is a political hack who must go. No matter what, we only have 6 more months of that dolt.

flown-the-coop said:

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How are pedophiles being protected? Also, another Jerome Powell thread turning into an Epstein pouty session… lawd.

But Trump is right on rates as he has been right on just about everything. Powell is a political hack who must go. No matter what, we only have 6 more months of that dolt.

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What has Trump not been right on?

The markets are betting on inflation rising in June and significantly on no July cut. CPI comes out next Tuesday.

Dimon has increased his odds of increased rates:

DIMON: I WOULD PRICE IN A 40%-50% CHANCE OF HIGHER U.S. INTEREST RATES

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) July 10, 2025

If Powell raises rates in July, Trump's head might literally explode.....

Windy City Ag said:

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Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

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I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.

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That's not a fault of markets. It's a fault of government and FED manipulation of free markets.

Kansas Kid said:

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Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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Neither are right.

Let the free market set the rates.

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I used to believe that and in its own way bond markets still do police the Fed . . . .just not through the jury-rigged Fed Funds rate. They certainly forced Powell's hand during the recent inflationary spike.

But history tells you that leaving the markets to their own devices invariably results in them freezing up at the worst moments . . .Global Financial Crisis, Great Depression, you name it. You need a third party to jar things loose and get credit flowing again.

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If you think the Great Financial crisis was caused by free markets, think again. Federal government policies were largely to blame for the crisis. They highly incentivized home ownership/lending to people who had no business buying a house among many issues. The government backstop of many loans via Freddie, Fannie, and the FHA, meant lenders felt like they would be made whole even if loans failed.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/norbertmichel/2015/01/26/government-policies-caused-the-financial-crisis-and-made-the-recession-worse/

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FED and government create booms. Booms lead to busts.

Signel said:

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Its like we never learned why inflation keeps growing.... lets pass a bigger budget than Biden's!

It is astounding how bad both sides are at trying to get their way at wasting money we don't have.

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When stopping the train leads to it derailing and killing you, the only solution is to keep it going by any means necessary and hope it doesn't derail in your lifetime.

That's the ultimate motivation for everyone associated with FED and government. The current crop are a product of an already broken system. There will be no attempts to slow down or stop the march towards the cliff. Attempting it is political suicide.

We keep going until we fail.

It's not a given that a cut to the fed funds rate (ultra short term rate) will pull down the longer term rates in the portions of the yield curve where the government finances its debt. I did some basic research and it looks like longer term rates have actually risen about a third of the time in response to a rate cut. So Trump is talking out of his ass when he says that a rate cut will save us hundreds of billions in interest. He doesn't actually know that.

I reject the two options. The only person right about interest rates is Andrew Jackson.

The Federal Reserve's purpose is to bail out banks by purchasing their bad assets with the US Taxpayer's money. They currently own $6.7 trillion dollars of those "assets."

The fed could attempt to lower rates, I think it would result in failed treasury auctions - what foreign buyers are going to be lining up to buy US Treasuries at 2% yields with tariffs hitting in August…. Unless the USD keeps tanking vs. other currencies.

Krombopulos Michael said:

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If Powell raises rates in July, Trump's head might literally explode.....

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Subscribe.

We might finally harness fusion as Truth implodes.

If the Big beautiful bill would've actually meaningfully reduced the national deficit/debt, interest rates would be falling right now regardless of Powell's inaction.

Trump and the GOP could have dropped rates/borrowing costs naturally. They did not.

Interest rates are fine and they should stay where they are at. We threw trillions of dollars into the economy with COVID and that has to get cleaned up. Secondly the interest rates are not causing the massive amount of interest payments it is the fact that we can't pass a budget and we can't cut spending. I am fine with Trump's tariff plans but then he needs to cut the corporate and individual tax rates significantly at the same time. He is not executing a holistic plan that works. All it's doing is hurting the consumers.

Everything is at all time highs, and they want to lower rates?

Seems like we'd have 1999 all over again

End the Fed. Let markets set interest rates.

This thread is a roller coaster

gonemaroon said:

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Everything is at all time highs, and they want to lower rates?

Seems like we'd have 1999 all over again

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Quite a few zombie companies would be able to finance their debt again at the lower rates...when they should probably go bankrupt.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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End the Fed. Let markets set interest rates.

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You sure about that?

I am not a fan of men behind closed doors determining the financial winners and losers HOWEVER what is the alternative to the Fed?

I don't think it would be prudent to allow politicians of any party gain control of the reins.

And free markets can be incredibly volatile, especially when we add in the HFT algos and financial AI.


Damned if we do, damned if we don't.


**** it, we should go back to the barter system..... : )

Trump is right. Lower them 3% and watch the fireworks. Powell is just being stubborn and a political hack.

Trump is even more wrong than Powell.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Signel said:

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Its like we never learned why inflation keeps growing.... lets pass a bigger budget than Biden's!

It is astounding how bad both sides are at trying to get their way at wasting money we don't have.

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When stopping the train leads to it derailing and killing you, the only solution is to keep it going by any means necessary and hope it doesn't derail in your lifetime.

That's the ultimate motivation for everyone associated with FED and government. The current crop are a product of an already broken system. There will be no attempts to slow down or stop the march towards the cliff. Attempting it is political suicide.

We keep going until we fail.

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Not a good strategy when your grandchildren and then their offspring are tied to the train tracks up ahead. Sometimes your generation has to be the ones to make the sacrifice.

Can you lay out how the train derails and the specific impacts it will have?

I always the the horse farm around the discussions doing nothing nut nay-ing about the debt sky falling.

But no one ever can conceptualize how this all comes crashing down.

Does the US go into receivership at the hands of the UN or international courts? Are we split up and sold to China, Iran, Russia? Will Sotheby's auction the monuments in Washington? Sell the artwork in the White House that Trump is so fond of?

Exactly what penalty are the grandchildren going to pay?

FriendlyAg said:

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This thread administration is a roller coaster.

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