Democrats at risk of losing 40 House Seats

5,997 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 3 days ago by Ellis Wyatt
TheEternalOptimist
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11:08a, 8/7/25
This would be just dandy if this happened.... it's a worst case scenario for the Dems at -42 seats. That would shift the House to GOP for a generation or two.

But.... I expect a net gain of 5-15 seat range...... while hoping for better.

The Democrats, as stated in numerous posts on other threads, are nearly maxed out on gerrymandering US House districts.

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the most cool guy
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11:09a, 8/7/25
Do all of it and make no apologies. Even if we have to include illegals in the census, the last census was inaccurate and needs to be redone.
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Canyon Lake Agbu94
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11:10a, 8/7/25
AG
While I appreciate your eternal optimism here, there is no way that happens.
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Mega Lops
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11:13a, 8/7/25
AG
Needs to happen. Marxocollectivism is anti-American.
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Ag87H2O
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11:13a, 8/7/25
AG
Now you know why Democrats are fighting the Texas redistricting so hard.

The cat is out of the bag, and Republicans nationwide will be emboldened to do the same. Gerrymandering and bad census numbers are why the House is even close to being blue. Time for red states and the Trump administration to start taking back lost ground, and make the House more representative of what America actually is politically. Center right.
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aggiehawg
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11:16a, 8/7/25
AG
With end of disparate impact looming, the entire notion of the legitimacy of majority minority districts as the reason alone, makes no sense. (Not that it ever really did.)
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chilimuybueno
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In reply to Ag87H2O • 11:17a, 8/7/25
AG
Do it!
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Sleepnumber
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In reply to Canyon Lake Agbu94 • 11:17a, 8/7/25
AG
Canyon Lake Agbu94 said:
While I appreciate your eternal optimism here, there is no way that happens.

Trump has a way of making things happen.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Sleepnumber • 11:19a, 8/7/25
AG
Well then he better get to it.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to TheEternalOptimist • 11:23a, 8/7/25
Bro, that ain't happening. Incumbent parties almost always lose during the midterms.

Its much more likely that control of the house comes down to 10-20 toss ups.

Now, Texas and other states gerrymandering more likely r seats will help and, from what I can tell, the dems dont really have the same ability. So there might be a little bit of gain by Rs that isnt accounted for.
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AgNav93
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11:24a, 8/7/25
AG
Never underestimate the GOPs ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Much like our football team.
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sam callahan
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11:24a, 8/7/25
No way the deep state and the democrats let that happen.
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Rapier108
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11:35a, 8/7/25
The census will be tied up in court until 2030.

And right now the Democrats hold a 8% lead in the congressional ballot. The Republicans had the lead or it was roughly tied until the last month.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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FlyRod
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11:53a, 8/7/25
Where did you see that 8% Democrat lead? Real Clear Politics has the DEM-GOP gap pretty narrow overall (in keeping with the Democrats' low low low approval ratings).
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Old Sarge
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11:55a, 8/7/25
AG
Username……..

Checks out



And I am pulling for you.
"Green" is the new RED.
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Ginormus Ag
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11:58a, 8/7/25
AG
Republicans don't have the stones to do it.
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Rapier108
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In reply to FlyRod • 12:06p, 8/7/25


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Rapier108 • 12:11p, 8/7/25
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.

Polls are in "narrative creation" season. Nobody is itching to give pro Trans anti police party power.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 12:25p, 8/7/25
AG
Who?mikejones! said:
Bro, that ain't happening. Incumbent parties almost always lose during the midterms.

Its much more likely that control of the house comes down to 10-20 toss ups.

Now, Texas and other states gerrymandering more likely r seats will help and, from what I can tell, the dems dont really have the same ability. So there might be a little bit of gain by Rs that isnt accounted for.

Along the same lines as my earlier post referenced is the possibility of challenging existing majority minority districts.

A compelling argument could be made that gerrymandering upon racial lines, solely to address disparate impact are no longer valid once SCOTUS restricts or removes disparate impact as legally cognizable reason. Making that unconstitutional.

This all goes back to the differences between what is termed de jure versus de facto constitutionality of statutes. A statute can be race neutral on its face (de jure) but still be unconstitutional in its application (de facto.) That was the main reason the death penalty was originally struck down in 1972 in Furman v. Georgia. Minorities were statistically more likely to receive the DP than other races.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to AgNav93 • 12:29p, 8/7/25
AgNav93 said:
Never underestimate the GOPs ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Much like our football team.


GOP has a team?
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Aglaw97
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12:29p, 8/7/25
AG
Worst case scenario for swamp Republicans. They perpetually want to be in the minority so they can campaign on what they'd do if they only had power.
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BigRobSA
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In reply to Aglaw97 • 12:30p, 8/7/25
Aglaw97 said:
Worst case scenario for swamp Republicans. They perpetually want to be in the minority so they can campaign on what they'd do if they only had power.


Hell, they do that even when they're IN power.
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Ag with kids
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In reply to BigRobSA • 12:39p, 8/7/25
AG
BigRobSA said:
AgNav93 said:
Never underestimate the GOPs ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Much like our football team.


GOP has a team?

The Washington Generals...
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twk
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In reply to texagbeliever • 12:42p, 8/7/25
AG
texagbeliever said:
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.

Polls are in "narrative creation" season. Nobody is itching to give pro Trans anti police party power.

While I wouldn't put a lot of stock in polls, one thing that that has changed is that the Republican party is now the home of more low propensity voters than the Democrat. All those extremists looking to hug a terrorist do reliably make it to the polls, whereas blue collar workers are not quite as reliable.

The OP is pure click bait. Whatever Trump might be saying about a new census, Congress is not going to reapportion Congressional seats until after the 2030 Census. Rather than wasting time on a census that won't count, Republicans need to do all that they can to make sure that the next one is not as bogus as the last one.
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BarnacleBill
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12:43p, 8/7/25
AG
User name definitely checks out!
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aggie93
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In reply to Rapier108 • 12:48p, 8/7/25
AG
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.

So a B/C rated poll of Registered Voters (the least likely to vote in Midterms). I mean the last thing the GOP should do is sit back but that poll seems pretty meaningless and easily manipulated.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
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Apollo79
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1:09p, 8/7/25
some things never change on this board any poll showing GOP losing is gospel it's like Charlie brown and the football yall never learn.

snicker
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Waffledynamics
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1:48p, 8/7/25
AG
Republicans will suffer if they don't actually do anything big and deliver on their promises.

Actually prosecute corruption.
Actually solve the debt crisis.
Actually make housing affordable, especially for new buyers.
Make starting a family more affordable and easier.

Our country is broken in a lot of ways, and many milestones are out of reach for a lot of people. Make them within reach and tackle corruption, and they'll see good results. Incredible results, even.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 2:45p, 8/7/25
Just like the Tories in Britain were punished for a number of unfulfilled promises, the Republicans will be as well
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Rapier108 • 4:46p, 8/7/25
Rapier108 said:


Other polls are somewhat less, but the last couple of months haven't been overly kind to the GOP.

The only saving thing for them is the Democrats have a -32 favorability. Republicans are only -9.

Lmao, only you would believe that garbage

Maga will have majority for complete 4 years and it will be great, not so much for you but we all cannot be winners on here
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Iraq2xVeteran
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10:28p, 8/7/25
AG
I appreciate this optimism of Republicans gaining 32 to 42 seats, but that is highly unlikely to happen. Realistically, I am expecting Republicans to gain 10-14 seats.
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ts5641
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In reply to TheEternalOptimist • 6:29a, 8/8/25
Do it and do it fast! We have the momentum. Pour it on GOP! Crush the enemy!!
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Old McDonald
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8:18a, 8/8/25
this is more of a bandaid solution to their immediate problems with backlash to trump's presidency, and certainly wouldn't result in a generation-long majority.

mathematically, maximizing seat count via redistricting requires them to create more toss-up lean-red districts at the expense of safe red districts. it can easily backfire with even small demographic redistributions or general movement leftward.
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halfastros81
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1:17p, 8/8/25
AG
If you can't mop the floor with the D's now when they are essentially leaderless and with no cogent or united message about what they even want to do then you never will. Strike while the iron's hot.
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will25u
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1:50p, 8/8/25


Quote:
Re: The Census

So President Trump intends to re-work the census numbers to eliminate illegal aliens from counting for representation in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College.

Democrats are screeching that this in unconstitutional. Whenever I hear that, my first step is to go and see exactly what it is the Constitution says, and here it is, from Article I, Section 2 of the Constitution:

"Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

I'm not going to debate the constitutionality of Trump's proposal in this post. Instead, I wanted to highlight something that caught my eye; this part: ". . . three fifths of all other Persons."

That refers to the infamous "Three Fifths Compromise." The Southern states wanted slaves to fully count in the census for representation purposes, and the free states did not want them to count at all. So as a compromise, slaves were counted as 3/5ths of a person. This gave more representation to slave states than they would have had if slaves had not been counted.

When the Constitution was approved we did not have political parties as we understand them today. However, those slave states were the backbone of the Democrat Party that was founded in 1828.

My point?

In 1788 (when the Constitution was adopted) the proto-Democrats of the day wanted to count their powerless black slaves for purposes of political representation and power.

In 2025 Democrats want to count their powerless, indentured servant, illegal alien, sub-minimum wage Latino gardeners, maids and nannies for purposes of political representation and power.

Nothing ever changes, least of all the deep evil that has always resided at the heart of the Democrat Party.

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