Kansas Kid said:

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jrdaustin said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Regardless, it's helping keep oil prices lower. For once… good China?

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The CCP is not exactly an altruistic group…the why is an interesting question.

This has only started within the last 30 days…so a recent policy shift.

What changed?

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How much of China's imports were either from Venezuela or from countries shipping through the Hormuz Strait? Shut those two spigots off, and what other options does China have to keep the oil flowing?

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Almost every other export country is an option. It is just a matter of price with some minor issues around crude quality and logistics. At this point, they are ok drawing down their ample reserves but the moment they think they need more imports, they will outbid a lot of poorer countries to get their necessary oil.

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This. Oil is a global commodity and prices off the highest bidder. If the SoH stays closed, is Venezuela now producing enough oil to offset the loss of oil coming from the Middle East? If not, then eventually reserves will run out and countries will start bidding up the price of oil to get what they need.

I hope the strait opens soon or Venezuela backfills the loss of supply, because China isn't going to cut their imports forever. Something has to give.

How the **** did we allow Iran to have this much economic power?

jwhaby said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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jrdaustin said:

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K2-HMFIC said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Regardless, it's helping keep oil prices lower. For once… good China?

---

The CCP is not exactly an altruistic group…the why is an interesting question.

This has only started within the last 30 days…so a recent policy shift.

What changed?

---

How much of China's imports were either from Venezuela or from countries shipping through the Hormuz Strait? Shut those two spigots off, and what other options does China have to keep the oil flowing?

---

Almost every other export country is an option. It is just a matter of price with some minor issues around crude quality and logistics. At this point, they are ok drawing down their ample reserves but the moment they think they need more imports, they will outbid a lot of poorer countries to get their necessary oil.

---

This. Oil is a global commodity and prices off the highest bidder. If the SoH stays closed, is Venezuela now producing enough oil to offset the loss of oil coming from the Middle East? If not, then eventually reserves will run out and countries will start bidding up the price of oil to get what they need.

I hope the strait opens soon or Venezuela backfills the loss of supply, because China isn't going to cut their imports forever. Something has to give.

---

There are 3 major indices and tons of others and the actual price one pays is based on individual contracts of specific oil from specific places shipped to specific places on specific dates.

Put 4 or 5 barrels of "crude" in the back of your F-250 and sell it on the market to the highest bidder and let us know who it works out.

The longer this goes on, the longer other supply routes are bolstered, other supplies become economically viable, and demand is adjusted to meet the new supply.

Tanker wars shut down the SoH to a large extent for 8 years in the 1980s.

I am not denying that if this drags out then prices will remain higher, but simplifying it to "global commodity to highest bidder" is not entirely helpful IMO.

ts5641 said:

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How the **** did we allow Iran to have this much economic power?

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What economic power?

jwhaby said:

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Kansas Kid said:

---

jrdaustin said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Regardless, it's helping keep oil prices lower. For once… good China?

---

The CCP is not exactly an altruistic group…the why is an interesting question.

This has only started within the last 30 days…so a recent policy shift.

What changed?

---

How much of China's imports were either from Venezuela or from countries shipping through the Hormuz Strait? Shut those two spigots off, and what other options does China have to keep the oil flowing?

---

Almost every other export country is an option. It is just a matter of price with some minor issues around crude quality and logistics. At this point, they are ok drawing down their ample reserves but the moment they think they need more imports, they will outbid a lot of poorer countries to get their necessary oil.

---

This. Oil is a global commodity and prices off the highest bidder. If the SoH stays closed, is Venezuela now producing enough oil to offset the loss of oil coming from the Middle East? If not, then eventually reserves will run out and countries will start bidding up the price of oil to get what they need.

I hope the strait opens soon or Venezuela backfills the loss of supply, because China isn't going to cut their imports forever. Something has to give.

---

It's hard to know how big their stockpile is because their government is about as transparent as a block of lead. You'll know when they start having to import more.

ts5641 said:

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How the **** did we allow Iran to have this much economic power?

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Consider that maybe they don't.

flown-the-coop said:

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jwhaby said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

jrdaustin said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Regardless, it's helping keep oil prices lower. For once… good China?

---

The CCP is not exactly an altruistic group…the why is an interesting question.

This has only started within the last 30 days…so a recent policy shift.

What changed?

---

How much of China's imports were either from Venezuela or from countries shipping through the Hormuz Strait? Shut those two spigots off, and what other options does China have to keep the oil flowing?

---

Almost every other export country is an option. It is just a matter of price with some minor issues around crude quality and logistics. At this point, they are ok drawing down their ample reserves but the moment they think they need more imports, they will outbid a lot of poorer countries to get their necessary oil.

---

This. Oil is a global commodity and prices off the highest bidder. If the SoH stays closed, is Venezuela now producing enough oil to offset the loss of oil coming from the Middle East? If not, then eventually reserves will run out and countries will start bidding up the price of oil to get what they need.

I hope the strait opens soon or Venezuela backfills the loss of supply, because China isn't going to cut their imports forever. Something has to give.

---

There are 3 major indices and tons of others and the actual price one pays is based on individual contracts of specific oil from specific places shipped to specific places on specific dates.

Put 4 or 5 barrels of "crude" in the back of your F-250 and sell it on the market to the highest bidder and let us know who it works out.

The longer this goes on, the longer other supply routes are bolstered, other supplies become economically viable, and demand is adjusted to meet the new supply.

Tanker wars shut down the SoH to a large extent for 8 years in the 1980s.

I am not denying that if this drags out then prices will remain higher, but simplifying it to "global commodity to highest bidder" is not entirely helpful IMO.

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I just figured that oil was a commodity since it's traded on the commodities exchange. I don't think many people sell it out of the back of their truck. IMO.

jwhaby said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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jwhaby said:

---

Kansas Kid said:

---

jrdaustin said:

---

K2-HMFIC said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Regardless, it's helping keep oil prices lower. For once… good China?

---

The CCP is not exactly an altruistic group…the why is an interesting question.

This has only started within the last 30 days…so a recent policy shift.

What changed?

---

How much of China's imports were either from Venezuela or from countries shipping through the Hormuz Strait? Shut those two spigots off, and what other options does China have to keep the oil flowing?

---

Almost every other export country is an option. It is just a matter of price with some minor issues around crude quality and logistics. At this point, they are ok drawing down their ample reserves but the moment they think they need more imports, they will outbid a lot of poorer countries to get their necessary oil.

---

This. Oil is a global commodity and prices off the highest bidder. If the SoH stays closed, is Venezuela now producing enough oil to offset the loss of oil coming from the Middle East? If not, then eventually reserves will run out and countries will start bidding up the price of oil to get what they need.

I hope the strait opens soon or Venezuela backfills the loss of supply, because China isn't going to cut their imports forever. Something has to give.

---

There are 3 major indices and tons of others and the actual price one pays is based on individual contracts of specific oil from specific places shipped to specific places on specific dates.

Put 4 or 5 barrels of "crude" in the back of your F-250 and sell it on the market to the highest bidder and let us know who it works out.

The longer this goes on, the longer other supply routes are bolstered, other supplies become economically viable, and demand is adjusted to meet the new supply.

Tanker wars shut down the SoH to a large extent for 8 years in the 1980s.

I am not denying that if this drags out then prices will remain higher, but simplifying it to "global commodity to highest bidder" is not entirely helpful IMO.

---

I just figured that oil was a commodity since it's traded on the commodities exchange. I don't think many people sell it out of the back of their truck. IMO.

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Sure, are you buying one barrel at a time? You realize the "price of WTI" is a weighted average calculation of contracts for future deliveries. These contracts are traded on the commodities market not unlike how stocks are traded but with a few more complications.

You still have to have a willing buyer and seller of those contracts. But it's NOT fungible like cash or stocks as there are timing and deliver aspects, transportation costs, treaties, sanctions and a variety of other things that factor in to the market.

Hence the reason the drums in a truck is the example to show that oil is not a simple as loading watermelons and selling to the highest bidder along the road.

HTH.