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What is up with the weather, Will it EVER RAIN again in So. Texas

8,130 Views | 83 Replies | Last: 15 days ago by Birdbear
Mark Fairchild
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Howdy, Rockport here. Our yard is complete TOAST, if it ever rains will have to be resoded! We have been on yard watering for +six months, Yikes. Almost zero, zip, nada rainfall? What in the Great, Great World of Sports is going on? Multi generation Texans and never seen it like this! Please God send some rain!!!!
Gig'em, Ole Army Class of '70
Gunny456
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Droughts and frequency of them in the northwest hill country down to south Texas are increasing in length and frequency over the last 25-30 years seems like.
At our ranch in Kimble county in 2011 we had 5" rain total. Normal was 34-36". Old timers up there said it used to be on a 7 year or so cycle but it seemed to have changed to a major drought every two or three years now.
All we can do is simply pray for rain…. and hope it all doesn't come in one night.

Jbob04
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La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.
Milwaukees Best Light
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This has been the driest and warmest winter I can remember. Hopefully it won't be the same for summer.
MyNameIsJeff
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Current forecast here in BCS calls for about 3" over the next 5 days.
Gunny456
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After 30 years of living through drought after drought and watching water tables and creeks and spring's dry up and trees die and never having a true four seasons anymore at our ranch in Kimble cty is one of the determining factors for us pulling up stakes and buying a ranch in the Ozarks.
Reel Aggies
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I hydroseeded yard last Friday in anticipation of the rain that was supposed to start in bandera yesterday….. still waiting…..
Yesterday
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MyNameIsJeff said:

Current forecast here in BCS calls for about 3" over the next 5 days.

That's like the Yucatan bragging about rain to the Sahara.
96ags
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Jbob04 said:

La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.

Thankfully La Nina is out and hopefully a solid El Nino is headed in.

We got an 1.20 last night in central Texas with hopefully more to come this weekend. Need to break this 20 plus year drought.
zooguy96
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Land use changes have really affected water retention + increased water usage from people in all ways (agriculture, residential, business, etc).

Moved away from Texas 10 years ago expecting this to happen; dry line gets further east every year.
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
ttha_aggie_09
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We average about 24" near Concan which means some years it's 35" or over and most years it's more like 14". It has been drier, there is no question about that, but the freaking swimming pools and wells being drilled along the Frio are having a devastating impact on the water table, in my opinion.
B-1 83
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Corpus is about to hit a Level 1 emergency with a 25% cutback, ZERO outdoor watering, a 7000 gal allocation and $4 surcharge for every 1000 gallons over that. No garden for me this year. I may well save water from the bathtub/shower when they are "warming up" just to use on my herbs and potted lime tree.
Being in TexAgs jail changes a man……..no, not really
Junction71
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It was reported near 4" last night around Llano, Buchanan Dam area. Can someone verify? I could see those huge cumulo-nimbus clouds (hey, I took a meteorology course at A&M) from Junction. No decent rain here since Nov 18th. The landscape looks tortured and gonna be no bluebonnets this year.
96ags
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Junction71 said:

It was reported near 4" last night around Llano, Buchanan Dam area. Can someone verify? I could see those huge cumulo-nimbus clouds (hey, I took a meteorology course at A&M) from Junction. No decent rain here since Nov 18th. The landscape looks tortured and gonna be no bluebonnets this year.

I'm 15 miles north of Llano proper and got an 1.20 at the house, but it definitely looked like they got more to the south. Just got word that our place NW of Llano got 1.70 and about 5 miles north of there places got over 3. Very, very helpful.
jja79
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Yesterday said:

MyNameIsJeff said:

Current forecast here in BCS calls for about 3" over the next 5 days.

That's like the Yucatan bragging about rain to the Sahara.


One of my favorite things on Texags is the mythical Aggie dome. They get 40 inches a year.
Jbob04
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The Aggieland board is obsessed with the mythical "dome"
schmellba99
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Gunny456 said:

Droughts and frequency of them in the northwest hill country down to south Texas are increasing in length and frequency over the last 25-30 years seems like.
At our ranch in Kimble county in 2011 we had 5" rain total. Normal was 34-36". Old timers up there said it used to be on a 7 year or so cycle but it seemed to have changed to a major drought every two or three years now.
All we can do is simply pray for rain…. and hope it all doesn't come in one night.



It may seem like droughts are more common, but they aren't. Historically speaking they are pretty much right on with the normal time frames.
BrazosDog02
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I don't even think I got 5" of rain from all of last year to now where we are. Every single pasture is completely brown. The *****ly pear are wilting. The mesquite is yellow. The only thing that is green are my garden with buried drip and the banks of our spring fed creeks. Those fortunately are flowing and the water is deep. Outside of that, it's totally dead and dust. We got rid of a lot of livestock but still have to feed the rest. It's pretty crazy. It's going to take rain like in the forecast spread out over a month, every month, for the next 5 years to restore everything.

I have several friends that used to own boats…that they bought when they bought their lots…on Medina lake. Yeah, those are all sold.
schmellba99
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96ags said:

Jbob04 said:

La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.

Thankfully La Nina is out and hopefully a solid El Nino is headed in.

We got an 1.20 last night in central Texas with hopefully more to come this weekend. Need to break this 20 plus year drought.

Hyperbole much?
96ags
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schmellba99 said:

96ags said:

Jbob04 said:

La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.

Thankfully La Nina is out and hopefully a solid El Nino is headed in.

We got an 1.20 last night in central Texas with hopefully more to come this weekend. Need to break this 20 plus year drought.

Hyperbole much?

Nope. I believe the number is actually 26 or 27

Brian Bledsoe has some good videos and articles about it.
TAMUallen
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It's winter.

Im just happy we got half of an inch in western Texas last month
carl spacklers hat
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What is rain? Been so long I've forgotten what it looks like.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
96ags
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Gunny456
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Family been ranching in the hill country since the mid 1800's. Dry line definitely slowly moving east. They had droughts in the 50's but frequency and lengths are increasing in areas. Annual rainfall totals sometimes reach recorded averages but rain events of heavier rainfalls followed by longer times between rains becoming more frequent in north and western EP regions.
One of the reasons Texas southern and western lakes and rivers are at historical lows and have been that way for multiple years now.
Gunny456
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Yes sir.
TAMUallen
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Gunny456 said:

Family been ranching in the hill country since the mid 1800's. Dry line definitely slowly moving east. They had droughts in the 50's but frequency and lengths are increasing in areas. Annual rainfall totals sometimes reach recorded averages but rain events of heavier rainfalls followed by longer times between rains becoming more frequent in north and western EP regions.
One of the reasons Texas southern and western lakes and rivers are at historical lows and have been that way for multiple years now.


Ive been looking at pictures of the ranch in Crockett county, Ozona and my gosh it looked lush 20 years ago. I know we had one of the worst droughts in 2011 but pictures from years ago look so lush that I cant even imagine it now. Storms are so hit and miss. The south side of the ranch might have 3 inches dumped on it but the northside a tenth of an inch. Have actually needed to put up rain gauges at bump gates to know what has really landed
Gunny456
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Yes sir. I use to quail hunt on a large ranch outside Ozona in the 70's. The same place looks completely different now….
TAMUallen
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Gunny456 said:

Yes sir. I use to quail hunt on a large ranch outside Ozona in the 70's. The same place looks completely different now….


Quail are really coming back now though. I never saw coveys back around 2000 and nowadays I can see a couple each time I'm filling feeders
spieg12
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96ags said:

Jbob04 said:

La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.

Thankfully La Nina is out and hopefully a solid El Nino is headed in.

We got an 1.20 last night in central Texas with hopefully more to come this weekend. Need to break this 20 plus year drought.


I'm not sure where exactly in central Texas you are located but I am not aware of any 20 year drought occuring. NWS climatology for the Waco area shows an average rainfall of 34.77 inches from 2005-2025, which is very close to the 30 year average from 1991-2020 that the NWS uses to calculate normals. Heck, 2022 was the first year of less than 30 inches of rain since 2011. And there was 2015 in that span that had a whopping 53.74 inches. All that to say I am curious where a 20 year drought is occuring.
Gunny456
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It isn't about annual rainfall amount necessarily. The rains are becoming larger events with extended dry periods between them getting larger. It doesn't do much if a counties rainfall average is 30" and you get 13" of that one night and it's ten months till you get the rest and that continues for multiple years back to back.
zooguy96
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I don't know why the whole state of Texas except for maybe East Texas and Houston doesn't Institute water restrictions like Arizona has. It makes no sense to let people keep on having blush green yards for no freaking reason.

The resource is going to be gone, and then what will you have?
I know a lot about a little, and a little about a lot.
MouthBQ98
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Jbob04 said:

The Aggieland board is obsessed with the mythical "dome"


It takes a lot of water to grow St Augustine or keep Bermuda green where it doesn't belong.

I agree there is zero sense in letting some delusional HOA's demanding golf course green type lawns and resort type landscaping and other needless water demands dictate water usage. I never water my lawn of native grasses and GASP! weeds. I just mow the thing when it needs it and it is green when it rains and more brown when it doesn't. But it never dies, even in the harshest drought, and greens right back up with fresh growth in a few days after a decent rain. I simply waste less time and gas mowing when it is dry.

We waste water other ways like not repairing infrastructure that needs to be addressed also, as does the law regarding use and access in general. The anything goes if you can drill it approach won't work at projected population levels.
schmellba99
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96ags said:

schmellba99 said:

96ags said:

Jbob04 said:

La Niña is the worst for Texas. We need rain badly and we need El Niño to move in.

Thankfully La Nina is out and hopefully a solid El Nino is headed in.

We got an 1.20 last night in central Texas with hopefully more to come this weekend. Need to break this 20 plus year drought.

Hyperbole much?

Nope. I believe the number is actually 26 or 27

Brian Bledsoe has some good videos and articles about it.

The hill country has not been in drought for 20+ years.

Now, if you want to make the argument that groundwater is disappearing at a significantly increased rate over the last 20+ years, that is factual. But a different story than drought.
96ags
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See Gunny's post above or go read some of Bledsoes writing.

They both articulate it well.
AgGrad99
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zooguy96 said:

I don't know why the whole state of Texas except for maybe East Texas and Houston doesn't Institute water restrictions like Arizona has. It makes no sense to let people keep on having blush green yards for no freaking reason.

The resource is going to be gone, and then what will you have?

They pretty much have, for quite a while now.

I dont know when the last time was, we weren't on some sort of water restriction. (usually 1/wk).


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