Was there ever a key moment or two in the Pacific that could have swayed the balance in their favor?
Or could they only have delayed the inevitable?
Or could they only have delayed the inevitable?
Did Japan ever have a chance in WW2?
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Last: 2 mo ago by Aggie1205
I guess if they defeated us at Coral Sea, then won the New Guinea campaign, then neutralizing Australia, then if they take Burma and India cutting off China, maybe they win.
I still don't think they can hold the ground. That's what their probable was in the first place. They took all this land and islands. Which had very few resources so they had to supply everything.
We could have poured more resources into subs which would,have hurt their supply line even more.
I still don't think they can hold the ground. That's what their probable was in the first place. They took all this land and islands. Which had very few resources so they had to supply everything.
We could have poured more resources into subs which would,have hurt their supply line even more.
LETTUCE PRAY said:
Was there ever a key moment or two in the Pacific that could have swayed the balance in their favor?
Or could they only have delayed the inevitable?
If they would have destroyed the fuel supplies at Pearl Harbor on December 7th then they may have had extra time to prepare for the inevitable American onslaught, but they had no chance to ever sway the balance to their favor.
Only scenario for success would have been a German-Russian-Japan alliance, as then the Germans would have probably been more aggressive regarding an invasion of Great Britain and we would have had to pour men and materials to the ETO immediately instead of having 2+ years to prepare for DDAY 1944
Once Japan's "shock and awe" campaign to start the war failed to bring the US to ask for a negotiated settlement, Japan had lost the war. At that point the best they could hope for was that Hitler's 1942 campaign would take the USSR out of the war, forcing the US to devote more resources to Europe. But it would still just have delayed the inevitable.
Midway and the Guadalcanal/Solomons campaigns accelerated the process, by sinking most of the IJN's fast carriers, and then by wrestling the initiative away and grinding down the Japanese air arm. But even without those victories, by late 1943-early 1944, the USN would have built up a fleet that the IJN couldn't match. If Australia was isolated, it would have become a pure War Plan Orange drive through the Central Pacific.
And the Japanese knew that they couldn't win a long war against the US, even before the war started. "Shock and awe" was really their only chance. I don't have the book with me, but read Tower of Skulls by Richard Frank. They knew before they even planned the Pearl Harbor attack that by late 1943, the naval balance of power would swing against them, and only get worse from there, thanks to the Two Ocean Navy Act of 1940. Yamamoto actually argued against going to war with the US, saying "A war so unlikely to be won should not be fought."
Midway and the Guadalcanal/Solomons campaigns accelerated the process, by sinking most of the IJN's fast carriers, and then by wrestling the initiative away and grinding down the Japanese air arm. But even without those victories, by late 1943-early 1944, the USN would have built up a fleet that the IJN couldn't match. If Australia was isolated, it would have become a pure War Plan Orange drive through the Central Pacific.
And the Japanese knew that they couldn't win a long war against the US, even before the war started. "Shock and awe" was really their only chance. I don't have the book with me, but read Tower of Skulls by Richard Frank. They knew before they even planned the Pearl Harbor attack that by late 1943, the naval balance of power would swing against them, and only get worse from there, thanks to the Two Ocean Navy Act of 1940. Yamamoto actually argued against going to war with the US, saying "A war so unlikely to be won should not be fought."
Don't lose their carriers at Midway.
BQ78 said:
Don't lose their carriers at Midway.
Wouldn't have changed anything, it would have delayed things, but we already had carriers to replace anything we lost plus more than Japan could ever build. Even if they took Midway they couldn't hold,it. It was way too far to keep,it supplies and defended
I think Joshua in Wargames said it best. For Japan, the only winning move is not to play. They knew they couldn't win against the US but they decided to play anyway, which is what a militaristic govt does.
This. Good summation!Smeghead4761 said:
Once Japan's "shock and awe" campaign to start the war failed to bring the US to ask for a negotiated settlement, Japan had lost the war. At that point the best they could hope for was that Hitler's 1942 campaign would take the USSR out of the war, forcing the US to devote more resources to Europe. But it would still just have delayed the inevitable.
Midway and the Guadalcanal/Solomons campaigns accelerated the process, by sinking most of the IJN's fast carriers, and then by wrestling the initiative away and grinding down the Japanese air arm. But even without those victories, by late 1943-early 1944, the USN would have built up a fleet that the IJN couldn't match. If Australia was isolated, it would have become a pure War Plan Orange drive through the Central Pacific.
And the Japanese knew that they couldn't win a long war against the US, even before the war started. "Shock and awe" was really their only chance. I don't have the book with me, but read Tower of Skulls by Richard Frank. They knew before they even planned the Pearl Harbor attack that by late 1943, the naval balance of power would swing against them, and only get worse from there, thanks to the Two Ocean Navy Act of 1940. Yamamoto actually argued against going to war with the US, saying "A war so unlikely to be won should not be fought."
Neither Japan nor Germany had the industrial and logistical capacity to defeat the US, UK and the Soviet Union once they were allied. Pretty sure they couldn't have beaten the US even if it were alone. They got in their first hard, early sucker punches in and rocked each nation, but couldn't keep up the fight once we found our feet again.
12thFan/Websider Since 2003
The dastardly sneak attacks against US forces on December 7 across a broad front sealed the fate of the Japanese Empire. That type of unprovoked aggression was likely the only way to arouse the righteous anger of the American people to fight the Empire of Japan until ultimate victory.
If the Japanese Empire had followed a more traditional ratcheting up of rhetoric, warnings, and even ultimatums before declaring a state of war or prompting war by seizing some ships or something like that, I doubt the American people, who had stayed out of a European war for 2 years, would have had the stomach for the brutal fight that was needed to defeat the Japanese unconditionally.
So, once Pearl Harbor happened, their goose was cooked. The American populace would not accept a peace agreement where the treachery of the Japanese Empire would in any way be rewarded.
A different scenario for beginning the likely inevitable conflict with the United States may very well have gotten the Japanese what they really wanted, a withdrawal of the US from Asia while we focused on Europe, assuming we got into the war over there.
So, by starting the war with stunning battle victories through sneak attacks, the Japanese guaranteed their own defeat.
If the Japanese Empire had followed a more traditional ratcheting up of rhetoric, warnings, and even ultimatums before declaring a state of war or prompting war by seizing some ships or something like that, I doubt the American people, who had stayed out of a European war for 2 years, would have had the stomach for the brutal fight that was needed to defeat the Japanese unconditionally.
So, once Pearl Harbor happened, their goose was cooked. The American populace would not accept a peace agreement where the treachery of the Japanese Empire would in any way be rewarded.
A different scenario for beginning the likely inevitable conflict with the United States may very well have gotten the Japanese what they really wanted, a withdrawal of the US from Asia while we focused on Europe, assuming we got into the war over there.
So, by starting the war with stunning battle victories through sneak attacks, the Japanese guaranteed their own defeat.
The United States produced 300,317 military aircraft between January 1, 1940, and August 14, 1945.
Total Japanese production was 85,611.
The United Stated produced 112 aircraft carriers in WWII. The Japanese? 18
The US produced 6 Billion barrels of oil during WWII. Japan had a total reserve of 73 Million. 80% of that was imported from California before the war.
The answer is not at any point in the war....
Total Japanese production was 85,611.
The United Stated produced 112 aircraft carriers in WWII. The Japanese? 18
The US produced 6 Billion barrels of oil during WWII. Japan had a total reserve of 73 Million. 80% of that was imported from California before the war.
The answer is not at any point in the war....
If they didn't ally with the Germans or attack at Pearl Harbor, they may have been able to grab French and Netherlands colonies when Germany had taken them under the guise that they were attacking Germany. Germany had a few colonies that could be grabbed as well. It may have led to an eventual war after WW2 ends and France wants them back but they probably could still be mitigated with some path to independence that never happens.
They couldn't win a war in China and once the American war machine got going they couldn't win that either.
They couldn't win a war in China and once the American war machine got going they couldn't win that either.
If we didn't keep the offensive after midway and just protected midway and hawaii would the Japanese eventually have stalled out there supply lines in the islands? Where would the battlefront change to? They didn't have enough people to truly expand to the world but I guess could've gained sympathizers to some extent to gain ground or hold ground.
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By memory
The USA used less than 1/8th of our men and material in the pacific.
The Japanese also wildly underestimated US industrial capacity. If I recall correctly US capacity was 15X vs Japan. Japan also didn't have key war critical resources. Fuel, items critical for munitions, precision machine tools and more.
Also from memory, Japanese war planners estimated they might have 18 months of fuel for the Japanese Navy if the Navy operated normally for full war time fighting just prior to the Pearl Harbor attack. And the attack would achieve success not so much from the destruction of US Naval capacity but by demoralizing US sentiment to fight.
Or in other words they only way they could have won is if American resolve wasn't there for fighting a war. I seem to recall the primary planner of Pearl Harbor even said they couldn't win in a straight up fight, but that MAYBE a giant loss of American ships would be enough to get the US to the negotiation table hoping we wouldn't want full war.
The USA used less than 1/8th of our men and material in the pacific.
The Japanese also wildly underestimated US industrial capacity. If I recall correctly US capacity was 15X vs Japan. Japan also didn't have key war critical resources. Fuel, items critical for munitions, precision machine tools and more.
Also from memory, Japanese war planners estimated they might have 18 months of fuel for the Japanese Navy if the Navy operated normally for full war time fighting just prior to the Pearl Harbor attack. And the attack would achieve success not so much from the destruction of US Naval capacity but by demoralizing US sentiment to fight.
Or in other words they only way they could have won is if American resolve wasn't there for fighting a war. I seem to recall the primary planner of Pearl Harbor even said they couldn't win in a straight up fight, but that MAYBE a giant loss of American ships would be enough to get the US to the negotiation table hoping we wouldn't want full war.
Japan was suicidal the entire war.
Read about the Japanese Ichi Go campaign in China 1945. One last giant fight that had no real goal that would help the odds of Japanese victory.
Or their stupid Burma / India campaign.
Read about the Japanese Ichi Go campaign in China 1945. One last giant fight that had no real goal that would help the odds of Japanese victory.
Or their stupid Burma / India campaign.
The Japanese U-Go offensive in 1944 (which resulted in what if often called the Battle of Imphal) did actually have a coherent strategic goal - to cut off the flow of supplies into China.
This was the same goal as they had in invading Burma in the first place in 1942, as well as in occupying northern Indochina in 1941. Because they were convinced that if they could cut off the flow of supplies, Chang and the KMT would come to terms, terms favorable to Japan.
Actually, almost everything that Japan did in the Asia-Pacific was downhill from the need to extract themselves from their war in China, and the consequences of that war and of actions taken in trying to end it on favorable terms.
This was the same goal as they had in invading Burma in the first place in 1942, as well as in occupying northern Indochina in 1941. Because they were convinced that if they could cut off the flow of supplies, Chang and the KMT would come to terms, terms favorable to Japan.
Actually, almost everything that Japan did in the Asia-Pacific was downhill from the need to extract themselves from their war in China, and the consequences of that war and of actions taken in trying to end it on favorable terms.
If Japan had attacked the Soviet Union instead of the U.S., they could have won the war.
As much as FDR was helping the Allies, I'm not sure he would have gotten a declaration of war for quite a bit longer without Pearl Harbor.
The Soviets barely survived Germany's attack. Add in Japan, they lose.
Given an overland link to Germany, Japan may have been able to acquire the resources needed to finish off China. And then they could have declared "gg, we win," sat on their empire and planned next moves.
I'm just not sure if the resources from Russia, China, and trade with the European fascists would have offset what they lost access to in the South Pacific.
As much as FDR was helping the Allies, I'm not sure he would have gotten a declaration of war for quite a bit longer without Pearl Harbor.
The Soviets barely survived Germany's attack. Add in Japan, they lose.
Given an overland link to Germany, Japan may have been able to acquire the resources needed to finish off China. And then they could have declared "gg, we win," sat on their empire and planned next moves.
I'm just not sure if the resources from Russia, China, and trade with the European fascists would have offset what they lost access to in the South Pacific.
Thanks and gig'em
One thing to keep in mind when postulating a hypothetical Japanese offensive into Siberia is the timing. Such an attack would have needed to be made in conjunction with the German offensive, but the time window for operations in the Manchuria-Siberia theater was even narrower than in European Russia.
Basically, the campaign season in the Soviet Far East closed in October.
And the Soviets maintained sufficient forces in the Far East to deter any Japanese offensive, until it was too late in the year for them to successfully launch any offensive. The fact that the Red Army had treated the IJA rather roughly at Lake Khasan and especially at Khalkin Gol also helped stay the IJA's hand.
Once the "you have to attack now or wait til next year" point had passed, it was go south or give in to the American demands.
Basically, the campaign season in the Soviet Far East closed in October.
And the Soviets maintained sufficient forces in the Far East to deter any Japanese offensive, until it was too late in the year for them to successfully launch any offensive. The fact that the Red Army had treated the IJA rather roughly at Lake Khasan and especially at Khalkin Gol also helped stay the IJA's hand.
Once the "you have to attack now or wait til next year" point had passed, it was go south or give in to the American demands.
A theoretical coordination with Hitler's foray into modern-day Ukraine/Kursk etc. would never have worked though. Hitler was an unmitigated failure as a military strategist and by mid-war was so doped up/paranoid he'd have never allowed his field marshals etc. to actually pursue such a coordinated plan successfully.
Finally, by April '43 both the German (enigma, since '41) and Japanese (Magic) codes had been cracked, and the allies would have known exactly what was planned (this is also how we shot down Yamamoto).
Finally, by April '43 both the German (enigma, since '41) and Japanese (Magic) codes had been cracked, and the allies would have known exactly what was planned (this is also how we shot down Yamamoto).
3⃣Operation Vengeance
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🛩️ 18 U.S. P-38 Lightning fighters took off from Guadalcanal.
Their mission: ambush and kill Yamamoto mid-flight.
To reach the intercept point in time, pilots flew over 400 miles at tree-top level, risking fuel shortages and detection.
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To use a boxing analogy, Japan's only chance was for an early round knockout. When that didn't happen it was a matter of time before all was lost.
Class of '91 (MEEN)
Japan didn't truly stand a chance at a "victory" over the US/Allies, but if a few things would have been different in the initial attack on Pearl Harbor there is the possibility of a domino effect that would have likely extended the war a few years and possibly given Nazi Germany a true leg up against the Russians.
The fact that the Ford Island fuel depot was not damaged and the carriers were not in port at Pearl Harbor cooked Japan's goose. If the fuel depot would have been taken out and the carriers sunk at Pearl Harbor or at any time shortly after PH the war takes a different course through late 1943.
Namely, the IJN has free reign over the Pacific and if coordinated with the Germans attacks on the Indian Ocean supply routes would have impacted the North Africa campaigns in a big way. This frees up men and material for the Germans for the Eastern Front. Also, if the pacific Lend Lease supply route is cut for the USSR that weakens the Russians ability to stave off the Germans and much delays the offensives after Stalingrad, assuming that Stalingrad plays out as it did.
What does the above do to the overall scope of WWII? I am not sure, but it would have put a different spin on things for sure.
Japan loses no matter what if the US prosecutes the war as they did, I mean in 1944 alone the US build more ships than Japan had prior to the start of the war and built all during the war. No way to beat that. I think for sure several more nuclear bombs are dropped and likely on Germany as well.
The fact that the Ford Island fuel depot was not damaged and the carriers were not in port at Pearl Harbor cooked Japan's goose. If the fuel depot would have been taken out and the carriers sunk at Pearl Harbor or at any time shortly after PH the war takes a different course through late 1943.
Namely, the IJN has free reign over the Pacific and if coordinated with the Germans attacks on the Indian Ocean supply routes would have impacted the North Africa campaigns in a big way. This frees up men and material for the Germans for the Eastern Front. Also, if the pacific Lend Lease supply route is cut for the USSR that weakens the Russians ability to stave off the Germans and much delays the offensives after Stalingrad, assuming that Stalingrad plays out as it did.
What does the above do to the overall scope of WWII? I am not sure, but it would have put a different spin on things for sure.
Japan loses no matter what if the US prosecutes the war as they did, I mean in 1944 alone the US build more ships than Japan had prior to the start of the war and built all during the war. No way to beat that. I think for sure several more nuclear bombs are dropped and likely on Germany as well.
Japan never had a chance. As some have said, with luck they could have delayed the inevitable longer but they were on borrowed time.
I like this graphic to illustrate just how outclassed the Japanese were.
I like this graphic to illustrate just how outclassed the Japanese were.
Japan's intent at Pearl Harbor was to remove us from the board such to the point that we would sue for peace. While it was a hard blow to us, it was far from the knockout punch they thought they would deliver. And it resulted in a response they apparently did not anticipate: a strong sudden anger that would drive us to enter the war, produce many times more military equipment and munitions than they could ever hope to, and enrage Americans as to want to kill as many Japs as possible.
All of those ships were deployed in the pacific? How many more were made for the Atlantic?JABQ04 said:
Japan never had a chance. As some have said, with luck they could have delayed the inevitable longer but they were on borrowed time.
I like this graphic to illustrate just how outclassed the Japanese were.
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I can't remember where I read this, but WWII was also the United States' first major war since the 19th amendment had granted women the right to vote in 1920, and Japanese leaders thought female voters would force the United States to abandon any war shortly after body bags of their loved ones started coming home.
This is why they thought they could win.
This is why they thought they could win.
Thanks and gig'em
whoop1995 said:All of those ships were deployed in the pacific? How many more were made for the Atlantic?JABQ04 said:
Japan never had a chance. As some have said, with luck they could have delayed the inevitable longer but they were on borrowed time.
I like this graphic to illustrate just how outclassed the Japanese were.
I don't have those numbers but I'd be interested to see as well. Keep in mind, ships did serve in both the Atlantic and Pacific as well. Plus I think it's more astounding our numbers fighting a 2 ocean war and still dominating the Japanese.
BB-35 USS Texas comes to mind.JABQ04 said:whoop1995 said:All of those ships were deployed in the pacific? How many more were made for the Atlantic?JABQ04 said:
Japan never had a chance. As some have said, with luck they could have delayed the inevitable longer but they were on borrowed time.
I like this graphic to illustrate just how outclassed the Japanese were.
I don't have those numbers but I'd be interested to see as well. Keep in mind, ships did serve in both the Atlantic and Pacific as well. Plus I think it's more astounding our numbers fighting a 2 ocean war and still dominating the Japanese.
Exactly what I was thinking, then wanted to know more and found lots of ships served in both theatres. Then…I got sidetracked again reading about the Battle for Crete. But yeah, the amount of ships we built in 4 years was astounding. And even more so was the Japanese navy was essentially wiped off the face of earth (or surface)
We actually got a head start on the shipbuilding with the passage of the Two Ocean Navy Act in 1940. (Design work on the North Carolina and possibly the South Dakota classes had started even before that). And the Japanese were fully aware of it - they knew that by the end of 1943 the USN would have a significant advantage in ships, and it would only get more lopsided after that.
So "shock and awe" leading to some sort of negotiated peace was their only chance for a successful outcome. But they totally misunderstood American culture, and started the war in pretty much the worst way possible, ensuring that the US would be pissed off enough to carry the war all the way through.
Even in a hypothetical, best case Axis scenario where Germany (and possibly Japan) manage to knock the USSR out of the war, all that would mean is that, in August 1945, the Enola Gay would be showing up over Berlin.
The atomic bombing of Japan probably wouldn't take place until late 1946 or early 1947. If Charlie Lockwood's subs hadn't starved them to death before that.
So "shock and awe" leading to some sort of negotiated peace was their only chance for a successful outcome. But they totally misunderstood American culture, and started the war in pretty much the worst way possible, ensuring that the US would be pissed off enough to carry the war all the way through.
Even in a hypothetical, best case Axis scenario where Germany (and possibly Japan) manage to knock the USSR out of the war, all that would mean is that, in August 1945, the Enola Gay would be showing up over Berlin.
The atomic bombing of Japan probably wouldn't take place until late 1946 or early 1947. If Charlie Lockwood's subs hadn't starved them to death before that.
One of the best quotes I ever read on this topic came from Bull Halsey, where he said that we (the US) were perfectly willing to share the Pacific with the Japanese. We would take the top half and they would take the bottom.JABQ04 said:
And even more so was the Japanese navy was essentially wiped off the face of earth (or surface)
Isn't Halsey the one who said that the Japanese language will only be spoken in hell, when he sailed back into Pearl Harbor immediately post December 7th?
I stand to be corrected, but I think he said something to that effect. He comes across as a no-BS, tell it like it is man, so this would be something he would say.JABQ04 said:
Isn't Halsey the one who said that the Japanese language will only be spoken in hell, when he sailed back into Pearl Harbor immediately post December 7th?
True, forcing Stalin into a two-front war would have been really helpful for the Axis.Aggie_Journalist said:
If Japan had attacked the Soviet Union instead of the U.S., they could have won the war.
As much as FDR was helping the Allies, I'm not sure he would have gotten a declaration of war for quite a bit longer without Pearl Harbor.
The Soviets barely survived Germany's attack. Add in Japan, they lose.
Given an overland link to Germany, Japan may have been able to acquire the resources needed to finish off China. And then they could have declared "gg, we win," sat on their empire and planned next moves.
I'm just not sure if the resources from Russia, China, and trade with the European fascists would have offset what they lost access to in the South Pacific.
But there's the geography problem: Japan would have to go though a bunch of frozen wasteland to get to anywhere useful. Unless they invaded by a southern route through China and Afghanistan, which would have its own challenges.
Asia is…just really big. Feature or a glitch.
The Germans didn't anticipate the Soviets would relocate so much manufacturing past the Urals either. Very unlikely the Japanese could have reached them in a timely manner either.
The Germans didn't anticipate the Soviets would relocate so much manufacturing past the Urals either. Very unlikely the Japanese could have reached them in a timely manner either.
The window of opportunity for Japan to attack the USSR was basically the summer of 1941. After a certain point (somewhere in October, IIRC), winter weather would make operations impossible. And the Red Army kept enough forces in the Far East to deter the IJA until that window had closed.BonfireNerd04 said:True, forcing Stalin into a two-front war would have been really helpful for the Axis.Aggie_Journalist said:
If Japan had attacked the Soviet Union instead of the U.S., they could have won the war.
As much as FDR was helping the Allies, I'm not sure he would have gotten a declaration of war for quite a bit longer without Pearl Harbor.
The Soviets barely survived Germany's attack. Add in Japan, they lose.
Given an overland link to Germany, Japan may have been able to acquire the resources needed to finish off China. And then they could have declared "gg, we win," sat on their empire and planned next moves.
I'm just not sure if the resources from Russia, China, and trade with the European fascists would have offset what they lost access to in the South Pacific.
But there's the geography problem: Japan would have to go though a bunch of frozen wasteland to get to anywhere useful. Unless they invaded by a southern route through China and Afghanistan, which would have its own challenges.
Those forces didn't play a part in stopping Barbarossa or Typhoon. But they did take part in the Moscow Counteroffensive in December 1941 - after the Japanese had already attacked the US, UK and Dutch in the Pacific.
Highly recommend "Unauthorized History of the Pacific War Podcast" if you want a deep dive into the entire pacific campaign. I've been a WWII history buff all my life (grandfather was an Engineer with the Army on Okinawa) and they talked about some campaigns and battles I'd never really hard much about. Also, talk about the good and bad of all the Admirals/Generals in the Pacific.
FYI: They are NOT MacArthur fans, but at the same time do praise some of the good things he did.
It's currently at 166 episodes. I started listening a few years ago and I'm still in 1944. They end each year of the war with a summary. Alsco cover some side topics (like the submarine war).
FYI: They are NOT MacArthur fans, but at the same time do praise some of the good things he did.
It's currently at 166 episodes. I started listening a few years ago and I'm still in 1944. They end each year of the war with a summary. Alsco cover some side topics (like the submarine war).
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