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ESPN says Texas has a 65% chance of beating the Aggies

4,757 Views | 39 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by Bill Superman
infinity ag
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9:23p, 10/13/25
Texas has been a mediocre team this year with a mediocre QB. We have been getting better and better. How do they assume there is such a large probability of Texas winning?




https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401752792/texas-am-texas
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Vitani
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9:25p, 10/13/25
AG
They are using their dumb FPI in the calculation.
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ironmanag
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9:25p, 10/13/25
AG
Good. I hope the media keeps disrespecting us.
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jokershady
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In reply to infinity ag • 9:26p, 10/13/25
AG
Who cares? It wouldn't surprise me if those were the odds when the season started and nothings just been updated.

Just win.
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Guy12
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9:26p, 10/13/25
Wdym, it explains it right there. "ESPN Anal"
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12
All I do is Nguyen
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In reply to ironmanag • 9:29p, 10/13/25
This
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FriscoKid
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In reply to infinity ag • 9:30p, 10/13/25
AG
You really have to stop crying on this board and do something with your life.
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Jeeper79
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9:30p, 10/13/25
AG
If we focus on the next game every week, we have a good shot of winning it. Keep doing that and the numbers will be very different by the time we play tu.
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Tergdor
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9:31p, 10/13/25
AG
FPI bakes in a huge advantage for home field and also weighs recruiting heavily. It's not a great predictor.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:40p, 10/13/25
AG
Show this to the team before the game.
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Bill Superman
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9:41p, 10/13/25
AG
They also said that sip would win the natty and archibold would bring home the heisman.
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AggieArchitect04
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9:45p, 10/13/25
AG
Didn't y'all know?

We will be facing a Heisman quarterback.
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combat wombat™
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9:46p, 10/13/25
AG
Who cares what they say?

Focus on this week's game. Keep winning.
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AgDad121619
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In reply to Tergdor • 9:52p, 10/13/25
AG
Tergdor said:
FPI bakes in a huge advantage for home field and also weighs recruiting heavily. It's not a great predictor.
you forgot the tu multiplier in their formula - those odds won't change when they are 6-5 entering the game
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ABATTBQ11
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9:57p, 10/13/25
AG
Texas is back. Haven't you heard?
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Rec
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10:02p, 10/13/25
AG
If they put that backup in, all of a sudden they are pretty salty… they will likely be 9-2 when we meet up who knows Arch could be out with a vaginal strain by then.
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Sid Farkas
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10:07p, 10/13/25
AG
I want the aggies to benefit from unearned privilege.
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SunrayAg
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10:16p, 10/13/25
AG
Counting on the SEC to hook them up with the all alumni officiating crew and 3rd generation replay official.
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infinity ag
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In reply to FriscoKid • 10:26p, 10/13/25
FriscoKid said:
You really have to stop crying on this board and do something with your life.


If I did then this board would shut down.
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Iraq2xVeteran
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10:38p, 10/13/25
AG
We should have at least a 40% chance by game week, but ESPN FPI says Texas has a 65% chance of beating us because they are ranked 7th in ESPN FPI, despite their 4-2 record and 1-2 record against Power 4 teams.

2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN
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depriest1022
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In reply to Iraq2xVeteran • 10:51p, 10/13/25
AG
Iraq2xVeteran said:
We should have at least a 40% chance by game week, but ESPN FPI says Texas has a 65% chance of beating us because they are ranked 7th in ESPN FPI, despite their 4-2 record and 1-2 record against Power 4 teams.

2025 College Football Power Index - ESPN


ND is ranked about 7 spots ahead of the Aggies AFTER losing to the Aggies at home. That's some quality analytics right there
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12thMan9
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In reply to FriscoKid • 11:00p, 10/13/25
AG
FriscoKid said:
You really have to stop crying on this board and do something with your life.

This is the best he can do, just like so many others here.
Ronnie '88
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C1NRB
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In reply to AggieArchitect04 • 11:10p, 10/13/25
AG
AggieArchitect04 said:
Didn't y'all know?

We will be facing a Heisman quarterback.

Andre Ware and Ty Detmer says, "Howdy"
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pete85
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12:55a, 10/14/25
AG
ESiPN also gave Notre Dame a 75% chance of beating us... just goes to show that their prediction simulator is trash much like their woke virtue-signaling content.
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Gunny456
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In reply to SunrayAg • 1:04a, 10/14/25
AG
This more than we know.
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dixichkn
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In reply to Vitani • 1:04a, 10/14/25
AG
Vitani said:
They are using their dumb FPI in the calculation.

I swear the "FPI" exists to keep tu relevant. I remember after their 7-5 regular season in 2019 ESiPN had sip in their top 20 FPI. They were awful that year.
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LB12Diamond
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In reply to infinity ag • 1:29a, 10/14/25
AG
Texas is losing 2-3 more games at least. OU sucks. Their only P4 win is against a team that is going to end up unranked.
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Aggie Dad 26
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6:52a
I would be curious to what Las Vegas says
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DeadPull
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In reply to C1NRB • 6:53a
AG
C1NRB said:
AggieArchitect04 said:
Didn't y'all know?

We will be facing a Heisman quarterback.

Andre Ware and Ty Detmer says, "Howdy"

RG3 wandered in as well
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Rocky Rider
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In reply to dixichkn • 7:00a
AG
dixichkn said:
Vitani said:
They are using their dumb FPI in the calculation.

I swear the "FPI" exists to keep tu relevant. I remember after their 7-5 regular season in 2019 ESiPN had sip in their top 20 FPI. They were awful that year.


tu and a few other programs which would be good for ratings during the playoffs and bowl season. I think ESPN's objective is to manipulate the playoff and bowl selection committees. It's all about $.
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BMX Bandit
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In reply to dixichkn • 7:10a
dixichkn said:
Vitani said:
They are using their dumb FPI in the calculation.

I swear the "FPI" exists to keep tu relevant. I remember after their 7-5 regular season in 2019 ESiPN had sip in their top 20 FPI. They were awful that year.

so were we.

yet managed to finish 1 spot ahead of tu in FPI.


FPI is pretty bad in my opinion, but its not just limited to the sips
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TMartin
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7:19a


ESPN has a very personal relationship with sip dating back to the longwhorn network
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MosesRAB-93
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In reply to infinity ag • 7:43a
AG
This game will have ESPN refs and it includes a multiplier for T-shirt fans.
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greg.w.h
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7:44a
AG
FPI exists to pimp their favorite hos that bring in the most eyeballs. Duh.
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5Amp
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7:50a
I don't think the sips win but I bet the refs do.
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