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2025 StatSim: Texas A&M at Arkansas

8,203 Views | 75 Replies | Last: 22 hrs ago by depriest1022
SpreadsheetAg
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9:17a, 10/16/25
AG
Looks like a blowout on paper... hope that holds.

  • They had one Kick-Off Return allowed versus an FBS opponent (Arkansas State) and it went for a 98-yard touchdown. I think they'll do everything they can to kick everything through the endzone and not allow Concepcion to return one.
  • They are also bad a punt return defense... and punt returns.... and kick off returns....
  • They are also really, really, really bad on all facets of defense; just horrid.
  • But! they've played 4 top-20 offenses in a row (probably attributable to them being on the defense and their horrid defense showing up on the other team's stat sheets)... but still.
  • We will be the 2nd best offense they've played and the best defense they've played.
  • Tennessee is a paper tiger; good offense and really bad defense; it's the only reason Arkansas was within 1 score of winning.
  • Top 3rd Down Defense (Aggies at 20% allowed) versus Top-5 3rd Down Offense (Arky at 55%); I feel we don't keep the streak up, but they don't achieve more than 40% conversions either.
Officially, I think the score may be tighter than the model indicated. I am personnaly prediction a 38-24 or 38-28 type of game. But We could score ALOT more, if we're clicking. However, it being on the road and Moss being out; I think Vegas is closer than my model; and I would bet the Ags to cover (if I placed wagers, which I don't).

*** This is not betting advice and I take no responsibility if you use this data to place wagers and lose ***



[Note: Just noticed a made a booboo on the QxQ and opponent record section ; Arkansas is 2-4 (0-2); no 2-3 (1-1)... forgot to replace the Florida record from last week.]
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91Challenger
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9:18a, 10/16/25
AG
Whoooopppppp!
"A is A”
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ahpetty33
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9:18a, 10/16/25
AG
THATS A BIG SPREAD
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agspirit_09
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9:20a, 10/16/25
AG
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ABATTBQ87
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 9:22a, 10/16/25
AG
so a lot different than the 1985 game



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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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9:32a, 10/16/25
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.

big key of game is surviving first 8-10 minutes. we have really struggled early on during road games and dug deep holes. if we can be even after the first 10 minutes we should be okay.
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brunsie
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9:37a, 10/16/25
AG
Thats quite a bit of maroon on the stat sheet!

I hope we win by 2 touchdowns. They are down a few receivers on their injury report.

BTHO pig!!!

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Wolfpac 08
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9:39a, 10/16/25
AG
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ArkyAg99
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9:55a, 10/16/25
AG
Good stuff. The key, in my opinion, to stop Arky from lighting up the scoreboard is contain Green. When he gets running it throws everything off for the defense. He's a heck of an athlete and puts that offense on his back. Hope York has a similar game as he did against Auburn. If he does it will be a very good day for the Aggies.
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TexAg1987
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10:04a, 10/16/25
Need to limit penalties.

I am not convinced we were as clean last week as the stats show. How much did Sankey being in town for the game influence the refs to swallow their whistle?

Until a see a few games in a row, it is a concern for me.

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Aggie Dad 26
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10:05a, 10/16/25
Let's beat that ahh
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Iraq2xVeteran
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10:16a, 10/16/25
AG
Texas A&M
Passing yards: 260
Rushing yards: 220
Total yards: 480
Points: 38
Turnovers: 1

Arkansas
Passing yards: 220
Rushing yards: 120
Total yards: 340
Points: 24
Turnovers: 1
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tk111
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 10:19a, 10/16/25
AG
This is what I've been going with all week. The whole "but but but Bobby P is back!" thing is absolutely baffling to me. That clown has been there the whole time as OC.
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TheBonifaceOption
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10:21a, 10/16/25
Arkansas only has a 49% stoppage rate.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46583303/college-football-2025-defense-stop-rate-midseason
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Iraq2xVeteran
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In reply to tk111 • 10:34a, 10/16/25
AG
tk111 said:
This is what I've been going with all week. The whole "but but but Bobby P is back!" thing is absolutely baffling to me. That clown has been there the whole time as OC.

Yes, Bobby Petrino has been their OC or interim head coach since last season. His offense would start strong in the first half before sputtering in the second half during their 4-game losing streak.

9/13: 41-35 loss at Ole Miss: 28 points in 1st half but only 7 in the 2nd half.
9/20: 32-31 loss at Memphis: 28 points in 1st half but only 3 in the 2nd half.
9/27: 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame: 13 pints in the 1st half but shutout in the 2nd half
10/11: 34-31 loss at Tennessee: 17 points in the 1st half and 14 in the 2nd half

I won't be surprised if Arkansas offense starts strong before our defense adjusts and shuts them down.
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Matsui
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 10:42a, 10/16/25
AG
Heck yeah
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Fatboy Thaddeus
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10:46a, 10/16/25
KCup17
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In reply to Iraq2xVeteran • 10:47a, 10/16/25
AG
And our defense is the best they have faced all year to this point.
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Rider76
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10:50a, 10/16/25
AG
That sheet shows a WHOLE LOTTA MAROON.....lets go and put on a SHOW
Top notch personal toughts/insights by the KING OF THE SHHETS..... SPREADSHEETAG!
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Logos Stick
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10:52a, 10/16/25
Thanks Spreadsheet... appreciate your work.
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AgLA06
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 11:27a, 10/16/25
AG
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.
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AgLA06
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In reply to tk111 • 11:30a, 10/16/25
AG
tk111 said:
This is what I've been going with all week. The whole "but but but Bobby P is back!" thing is absolutely baffling to me. That clown has been there the whole time as OC.


It doesn't mean he had the ability to do whatever he wanted. He's auditioning for a job with a team expected to lose. So he has nothing to lose and everything to gain the rest of the season. They are going to.look different and open up the playbook. If you watched any of the game last week, they looked very different than under Pittman.
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AgLA06
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In reply to ArkyAg99 • 11:34a, 10/16/25
AG
ArkyAg99 said:
Good stuff. The key, in my opinion, to stop Arky from lighting up the scoreboard is contain Green. When he gets running it throws everything off for the defense. He's a heck of an athlete and puts that offense on his back. Hope York has a similar game as he did against Auburn. If he does it will be a very good day for the Aggies.


Agreed. I just hope we don't try and use York as the spy. I'm not sure he's fast enough. Maybe Sanford?
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wangus12
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In reply to AgLA06 • 11:46a, 10/16/25
AG
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?
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TecRecAg
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In reply to wangus12 • 11:46a, 10/16/25
AG
wangus12 said:
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

Poster wants to bleed, so let him bleed. There's no changing his mind.
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AgLA06
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In reply to TecRecAg • 12:04p, 10/16/25
AG
TecRecAg said:
wangus12 said:
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

Poster wants to bleed, so let him bleed. There's no changing his mind.


That couldn't be further from the truth, but thanks for pointing out your lack of a position for the discussion. .
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brunsie
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In reply to TheBonifaceOption • 12:13p, 10/16/25
AG
TheBonifaceOption said:
Arkansas only has a 49% stoppage rate.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46583303/college-football-2025-defense-stop-rate-midseason


Utah State and Tusa have a better %
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TheBonifaceOption
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In reply to brunsie • 12:19p, 10/16/25
brunsie said:
TheBonifaceOption said:
Arkansas only has a 49% stoppage rate.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/46583303/college-football-2025-defense-stop-rate-midseason


Utah State and Tusa have a better %

Arkansas State has a better stop rate than Arkansas.
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Pizza
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12:26p, 10/16/25
Sparkie
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In reply to SpreadsheetAg • 12:28p, 10/16/25
AG
Hell yeah, brother
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AgLA06
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In reply to wangus12 • 12:38p, 10/16/25
AG
wangus12 said:
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

You call a different game when you're on the hot seat and the head coach wants to keep his job.

Their game last week looked very different than the season before Pittman was fired and they had 2 weeks to prepare for Tenn.
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Pumpkinhead
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In reply to wangus12 • 1:19p, 10/16/25
AG
wangus12 said:
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.

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SpreadsheetAg
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In reply to Pumpkinhead • 1:27p, 10/16/25
AG
Pumpkinhead said:
wangus12 said:
AgLA06 said:
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
this is a great measuring stick game in my estimation. great teams play to their level regardless of opponent.


Completely disagree. I think them running a new offense and defense will make this anything but a measuring stick game. We should win, but this is just like playoff Notre Dame early in the season. We're going to be mostly guessing as to what to expect.

Why would they be running a new offense when the OC is still the same guy?

It is going to be the same offense with the same schemes and same players and same guy calling the plays.

The only difference given the circumstances might be a 'Devil May Care' attitude on high risk, high reward decisions, such as for example if the Hogs have 4th and 6th at the 50 yard line, Petrino more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's go for it.' Or, more likely to go 'Ah f***-it, let's throw at least 10 bombs and see what happens', or more likely to say 'Ah f***-it, let's blitz 10 guys on this play', etc.



Exactly.

I expect to see some odd razor dazzle plays and a little more risks taken by Arky. 2 trick plays minimum.

If we don't overcommit and stay in our scheme / plan - we will beat all of it.
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OKC~Ag
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1:30p, 10/16/25
Great work

thank you
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Pumpkinhead
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1:32p, 10/16/25
AG
My understanding following some local Arky media is defensively one of the issues is they got some decent starters but poor depth. So once their DL starters get tired for example, there is a notable drop off.
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