A. G. Pennypacker said:

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Not into gambling at all. What the heck does -4000 even mean as compared to -140 or +2000

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Means you'd have to bet $4K to win $100 for A&M's first game. It's the kind of line we should have had against Samford. Makes no sense at all. They should take A&M off the board, but maybe there are a few suckers out there taking it. It's like putting your old washer out at the garage sale with a $20K price tag on it.

A. G. Pennypacker said:

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Not into gambling at all. What the heck does -4000 even mean as compared to -140 or +2000

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Have to bet $4000 to win $100

+2000 means bet $100 to win $2000

I mean - is this just Vegas saying "stay away until we know if A&M is playing a good team or a Group of 5 speed bump?"

fc2112 said:

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I mean - is this just Vegas saying "stay away until we know if A&M is playing a good team or a Group of 5 speed bump?"

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It can't be because even against Tulane or North Texas we wouldn't be that heavy of a favorite. It must just be a mistake.

Sodadude said:

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ATM9000 said:

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Vegas odds assume nothing more than odds to goad a balanced book.

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This is completely incorrect. Vegas books purposefully take proprietary positions. The traditional balanced book margins are not enough to justify the floor space at the casinos.

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I don't know anything about the topic but your post is very interesting to me.

Its been a while since I went to Vegas so maybe it has changed but even with what I would assume is large dollar volume the sports booking area isn't that profitable without some sort of "extra incentive" or "action"?

I seem to recall the sports betting section at most casinos not taking up that much space.

They post bad lines from time to time.

Way back when, I had a sportsbook.ag account and would wager on there. One year, for a PGA major, they jacked up the lines for top 20 finishes. They had the likes of Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy priced at +700 or longer. I immediately hammered them with some small bets to try and prevent the obvious mistake. Every single one of them that finished top 20 paid out. There have been other instances where me and my buddies would catch a bad line and after we locked it in, they were canceled. It'll be noticed and pulled down eventually.

FYI - you can parlay Oregon and ole miss for +103. Seems like easy money if they stay 5 and 6

For those of you too young to remember, we're right at the fiftieth anniversary of another dark day in Texas Aggie gridiron history, the loss to Arkansas at the end of the 1975 season. We went from national championship talk to playing USC in the Liberty Bowl, and the team just mailed it in. I'd hate to see that happen again and some of you be out four grand.

This is really interesting actually thanks for posting OP.

There's absolutely 0% chance these odds would make any sense if we were expected to play Notre Dame or Alabama. The only way this makes sense is if we're projected to move up to 5 or 6.

The way to bet this would be Ole Miss for sure, but dang really really interesting

DTX_12 said:

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The only way this makes sense is if we're projected to move up to 5 or 6.

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no the only way -4000 makes sense is if we were set to face Samford

DTX_12 said:

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This is really interesting actually thanks for posting OP.

There's absolutely 0% chance these odds would make any sense if we were expected to play Notre Dame or Alabama. The only way this makes sense is if we're projected to move up to 5 or 6.

The way to bet this would be Ole Miss for sure, but dang really really interesting

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Those odds make zero sense for any playoff team playing any school in the top 100, much less for any teams against each other. Consider that UNT beat the brakes off Wazzu 59-10, and Ole Miss almost lost to Wazzu.

EliteZags said:

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DTX_12 said:

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The only way this makes sense is if we're projected to move up to 5 or 6.

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no the only way -4000 makes sense is if we were set to face Samford

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Is there an echo in here?

This is the weirdest thing I've seen all season. Have they still not changed it?

Nope. Still up

94chem said:

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DTX_12 said:

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This is really interesting actually thanks for posting OP.

There's absolutely 0% chance these odds would make any sense if we were expected to play Notre Dame or Alabama. The only way this makes sense is if we're projected to move up to 5 or 6.

The way to bet this would be Ole Miss for sure, but dang really really interesting

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Those odds make zero sense for any playoff team playing any school in the top 100, much less for any teams against each other. Consider that UNT beat the brakes off Wazzu 59-10, and Ole Miss almost lost to Wazzu.

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You are incorrect. Here are some of the odds for hypothetical first round match ups.

Lines from @FDSportsbook for potential CFP first round matchups

Alabama (-1.5) at Oklahoma
Notre Dame vs Texas A&M (pk)
JMU at Oregon (-18.5)
North Texas at Oregon (-19.5)
Tulane vs Oregon (-24.5)
Virginia at Ole Miss (-13.5)
North Texas at Ole Miss (-13)
Tulane at Ole Miss…

— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) December 3, 2025

Ole Miss would be a -18 favorite over Tulane which would correlate to around -5500 to win the game outright. They would be -13 and -13.5 against Virginia or North Texas which would be around -900 to win outright.

So basically if we get the 6th seed then absolutely we would be around -4000 to make the next round.

We would be Even money against Notre Dame. It makes a gigantic difference if we get #6 vs #7 and what OP posted is showing that Vegas is assuming we will move up to #6

Either they are massively wrong about us or massively wrong about Ole Miss. If you like to bet I'd bet on Ole Miss

DTX_12 said:

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Ole Miss would be a -18 favorite over Tulane which would correlate to around -5500 to win the game outright.

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lol try -2000 max


JMU is -23.5 -2800 over Troy