Was hoping you would start this again. Sadly it looks like in EPL the same teams that came up are going back down. I'm also watching all the other English promotion and relegation battles. IT is getting down to the wire. Hoping for a Sunderland return to EPL, but odds are long, they are playoff bound probably.

Also, I'm hoping to see Wrexham make it to Championship.

I do not know what the FA can do at this point. But, pro/rel is dying at the moment.

Furlock Bones said:

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I do not know what the FA can do at this point. But, pro/rel is dying at the moment.

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It is working well at the lower levels, but there is just so much money in the top level teams that they literally are worth too much to fail. So there are only 10 or so squads that legitimately could be relegated each season and another 7 or so that are too big to fail (Man City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, Villa). So 3 promoted clubs and 10 EPL teams are your pool of regulation squads, and those 10 have a huge head start on the 3 new promoted squads. Teams like Newcastle, Forest, Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, Everton are all very established clubs that will be very difficult for a newly promoted side to overcome because they have so many resources the newly promoted clubs don't.

So really there are only 3-4 clubs that are in danger each season in addition to the newly promoted clubs. Those 3-4 rotate a bit based upon management but really that is the pool each season.

that's the thing i don't believe there are that many EPL teams that are truly at risk of relegation. look at Everton they flirted with it for years. but, even during all of that they were still making money hand over fist. as soon as they got a competent manager, they were immediately safe.

i just think we are going to see more and more years of all 3 promoted teams yoyoing back to the championship.

So we will have 2 years in a row with all 3 newly promoted teams getting relegated, but before last year I think it was at least before the 99-2000 season where all 3 were relegated. Obviously 2 in a row stands out but it has been pretty rare. We'll see if this becomes the trend.

Counterpoint - look at the 2022-23 promoted teams of Bournemouth, Fulham, and Nottingham. All three are currently in the top 10.

Yeah, I don't think it will always be a 3 up and 3 straight down type issue, but there really are only 3-4 teams in the EPL at risk of being relegated, in addition to the three new clubs.

Count me as EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED in the OP.

@Aston94 clearly missed an opportunity by not including all teams with fewer than 40 points in the current EPL table in this relegation thread. WTF dude!?!?!?!?!?

The only way I see there being any possibility of a relegation battle is if City gets handed a 105 point deduction (which I highly doubt will happen in time to save any of these three, even assuming it happens, which it probably won't).

jessexy said:

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Count me as EXTREMELY DISAPPOINTED in the OP.

@Aston94 clearly missed an opportunity by not including all teams with fewer than 40 points in the current EPL table in this relegation thread. WTF dude!?!?!?!?!?

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I will effort to do better.

Aston94 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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I do not know what the FA can do at this point. But, pro/rel is dying at the moment.

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It is working well at the lower levels, but there is just so much money in the top level teams that they literally are worth too much to fail. So there are only 10 or so squads that legitimately could be relegated each season and another 7 or so that are too big to fail (Man City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, Villa). So 3 promoted clubs and 10 EPL teams are your pool of regulation squads, and those 10 have a huge head start on the 3 new promoted squads. Teams like Newcastle, Forest, Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, Everton are all very established clubs that will be very difficult for a newly promoted side to overcome because they have so many resources the newly promoted clubs don't.

So really there are only 3-4 clubs that are in danger each season in addition to the newly promoted clubs. Those 3-4 rotate a bit based upon management but really that is the pool each season.

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Villa has spent three seasons in the Championship since 2016. That's a lot of seasons out of the PL for a squad that couldn't legitimately be sent down to the league it spent almost 1/3 of the last decade in.

True, but the last of those seasons in the Championship was 7 seasons ago. They've strung together a consistent run in the EPL which has a compounding affect on finances.

They also have one of the larger EPL stadiums which means they have a higher floor to their yearly finances than a lot of other teams that might get relegated. But Villa can book 33% more volume for their 19 league games than Southampton (as an example) who also had a long run in the EPL until they were relegated. That's quite an advantage over your peers. Gives more room for error.

Bournemouth, Brentford, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Forest, Wolves, Brighton. Outside of the 3 recently promoted teams, that's the complete list of clubs with 30kish capacity or less (Bournemouth with a meager 11k capacity and doing what they are doing is quite simply astonishing). Everyone else is 40k or above (and most of the others are above 50k). That's the list I would start with every year (in addition to whomever is promoted). Each club has to get it right a lot more often than they get it wrong to avoid relegation. And even if they get it right for years, a few wrong decisions can undo all of that very quickly.

Brighton are probably the least likely of that group because of longevity in the EPL (8 seasons) and establishing themselves as mid-table the last 4 seasons. If they completely screwed the pooch in the transfer market this summer, they have enough in the bank to (probably) survive next season. All the others aren't nearly as established even though some of them are enjoying very good seasons. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if Forest were in a relegation battle next season even if they had mostly the same squad.

Remove Thomas Frank and his system from Brentford and they are likely a relegation contender. I think one of the hardest transitions is from being a consistent relegation fighter/mid table to trying to get into the European places. A lot of clubs start trying before they are ready. I think Brighton have done it the right way as they stock pile talent before selling. It will be interesting to see how Bournemouth handle this summer. They have been flirting with a top 6 finish most of the season and a lot of their best players are going to be targeted by "big 6" clubs. Bottom half teams who sell their primary goal scorers tend not to do well in the seasons afterwards. Brentford seems to be the exception to that rule.

Furlock Bones said:

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I do not know what the FA can do at this point. But, pro/rel is dying at the moment.

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I don't think there is anything to fix. It's just doesn't appear to be working at the moment unless you remember where Aston Villa, Woverhampton, and Nottingham Forest where not so long ago.

Let's not prop up teams that aren't managed well enough to stay up or survive with bad rules.

Faustus said:

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Aston94 said:

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Furlock Bones said:

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I do not know what the FA can do at this point. But, pro/rel is dying at the moment.

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It is working well at the lower levels, but there is just so much money in the top level teams that they literally are worth too much to fail. So there are only 10 or so squads that legitimately could be relegated each season and another 7 or so that are too big to fail (Man City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs, Villa). So 3 promoted clubs and 10 EPL teams are your pool of regulation squads, and those 10 have a huge head start on the 3 new promoted squads. Teams like Newcastle, Forest, Brighton, Fulham, Brentford, Everton are all very established clubs that will be very difficult for a newly promoted side to overcome because they have so many resources the newly promoted clubs don't.

So really there are only 3-4 clubs that are in danger each season in addition to the newly promoted clubs. Those 3-4 rotate a bit based upon management but really that is the pool each season.

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Villa has spent three seasons in the Championship since 2016. That's a lot of seasons out of the PL for a squad that couldn't legitimately be sent down to the league it spent almost 1/3 of the last decade in.

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A lot has changed over the last 5-6 seasons, that was the point.

It will be interesting if/when Birmingham City & Wrexham make it to the EPL over the next few years. I would imagine their finances look a lot different than most teams coming up from Championship League, especially Birmingham City.

On the other side, looks like Luton Town is headed to League One, just one season removed from the Premier League.

I think you've watched too much "Welcome to Wrexham."

I watched S1 and then lost interest...but I guess I'm not following.

Do you not think they will make it to EPL eventually? Or are you saying they'll be in no different situation (financially) than other promoted clubs?

Wrexham isn't a big club and Ryan Reynolds is rich for a National League owner but not billionaire rich. Basically, imagine if some actors bought a semi-pro football team in like Tyler; do you think they could become competitive in the NFL?

What if I told you Tyler, TX was bigger than Green Bay, WI?

Reynolds and McElhenny will have to bring in a consortium of major investors to give them a chance to be competitive at the EPL level.

I don't know all the details, but the club seems to be ran well enough and monetized well enough to be competitive at the Championship level and have a chance at promotion. If Burnley can do it, Wrexham can probably do it.


What I would be quite worried about if I am Reynolds and any other investor is how long can I monetize Wrexham. At some point, the TV show will die off, all the buzz and excitement will lag and Wrexham will have to maintain on field results to keep any sort of global fan base interested and engaged.

What if I told you the semipro team in Tyler wasn't the Packers? What if I told you Wales was smaller in population than Oklahoma? What if I told you the the metro population of Tyler was smaller than the metro population of Green Bay? What if I told you the city population of Wrexham was close to Huntsville (to be clear, Texas)?

Showstopper said:

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What if I told you the semipro team in Tyler wasn't the Packers? What if I told you Wales was smaller in population than Oklahoma? What if I told you the the metro population of Tyler was smaller than the metro population of Green Bay? What if I told you the city population of Wrexham was close to Huntsville (to be clear, Texas)?

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I think what you say is accurate, but the marketing leverage Wrexham has is well beyond what anyone else has for a town their size (hell we all know Wrexham in the US, and I couldn't name another small town in Wales). They do have marketability which many teams do not, so they do have more avenues for revenue.

Wrexham would definitely be a smaller town in the EPL, but their power of marketability would be able to overcome that. They would need to bring in some larger investors, but honestly I don't feel like that would be an issue for Ryan and Rob, they have some really, really good connections and getting into the EPL game with them would be attractive I am sure to a lot of big money types in the US.

They have run things very well to now, I have no reason to doubt that they could run the team well in the EPL as well.

Reynolds and Wrexham overpowered the bottom rungs of the pyramid with money those teams simply don't have access to. That let them purchase players those teams don't have access to. Somewhere around the jump from League 1 to the Championship that advantage will disappear.

That doesn't mean they can't be successful. But their advantage will be nullified.

Aston94 said:

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Showstopper said:

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What if I told you the semipro team in Tyler wasn't the Packers? What if I told you Wales was smaller in population than Oklahoma? What if I told you the the metro population of Tyler was smaller than the metro population of Green Bay? What if I told you the city population of Wrexham was close to Huntsville (to be clear, Texas)?

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I think what you say is accurate, but the marketing leverage Wrexham has is well beyond what anyone else has for a town their size (hell we all know Wrexham in the US, and I couldn't name another small town in Wales). They do have marketability which many teams do not, so they do have more avenues for revenue.

Wrexham would definitely be a smaller town in the EPL, but their power of marketability would be able to overcome that. They would need to bring in some larger investors, but honestly I don't feel like that would be an issue for Ryan and Rob, they have some really, really good connections and getting into the EPL game with them would be attractive I am sure to a lot of big money types in the US.

They have run things very well to now, I have no reason to doubt that they could run the team well in the EPL as well.

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They will need big investors if they win promotion to the championship. The top teams in the championship spend about 3x or more the current wrexham salary total.

By contrast only the teams being relegated have cheaper rosters.

I just think Wrexham making it to the EPL would be a little bit like Luton making it; possible, but given the size of the club, don't get your heart set on staying.

I am surprised Luton has done as poorly as they have in the Championship this year, though. I guess Ross Barkley is the man?

Reynolds and McIhenny were/are always betting on the come. They will sell the club or sell 99% and remain as "minority owners". They don't have capital to fund a EPL team and most likely not enough to fund a Championship club without significant outside investment in excess of what they already have. I'm pretty sure they have been running at a deficit for the last couple of seasons during this run. Wages will suck any cash they have. Their top earners will be bottom of the Championship.

Everton is owned by Texans. I think they're in the Houston area.

Plymouth or Preston is owned by a DFW-area group. He's a regular interviewee on the Ticket soccer radio show. I can't remember what it's called these days.

jessexy said:

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Everton is owned by Texans. I think they're in the Houston area.

Plymouth or Preston is owned by a DFW-area group. He's a regular interviewee on the Ticket soccer radio show. I can't remember what it's called these days.

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The Friedkin Group is the ownership group of Everton & Roma. They are HQ'ed in Houston.

Finally found the team that's owned by a Dallas-based group. It's Leyton Orient FC

Looks like Leicester is a mere 20 minutes from joining Southampton in the championship next year.

And with that, it's all but over unless Ipswich wins out, west ham loses out, and Ipswich can cover an 18 goal GD. Most boring relegation battle ever.

ThunderCougarFalconBird said:

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And with that, it's all but over unless Ipswich wins out, west ham loses out, and Ipswich can cover an 18 goal GD. Most boring relegation battle ever.

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yep, only interesting race in PL now is the CL spots for next year