*** Official NBA 24-25 Prediction Thread ***

7,702 Views | 58 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Deluxe
The Original Houston 1836
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The refs cheated the Pistons out of a win then admitted it 5 minutes later. Oops, sorry, but we gotta have Knicks-Celtics, guys!
Iowaggie
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Cavs are going to be a2nd apron team next season now, barring some tough decisions.
Deluxe
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How would you handle this offseason for the Grizz? Would you give JJJ the supermax?
Guitarsoup
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Deluxe said:

How would you handle this offseason for the Grizz? Would you give JJJ the supermax?
There actually is a Grizzlies thread just for Iowa.

But I think they are in a tough spot. I think he can get 30%, not the 35% supermax since he didnt win the DPOY this year. His previous one was too long ago.

The problem here is that JJJ is always there, always in shape, always plays hard, but they are already overpaying Ja Morant and Bane. And those three as your three best players is never going to win a title. Plus JJJ seems to not play well in the playoffs at all. 16/5 with 0.5 blocks on 38/27 shooting this year.

Edey, JJJ, Wells. Bane, Ja with Pippen, Clarke, Kennard, Santi seems good on paper... but that's probably a 2nd round team every year at best. If you give him that 30% deal while paying Ja and Bane 25%, you get to the aprons pretty quick. Santi and Kennard are FAs this year.

I maybe hope that Trae wants out and no one wants him so you can try to fleece a Ja for Trae deal.
West Texan
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Guitarsoup said:

Deluxe said:

How would you handle this offseason for the Grizz? Would you give JJJ the supermax?
There actually is a Grizzlies thread just for Iowa.

But I think they are in a tough spot. I think he can get 30%, not the 35% supermax since he didnt win the DPOY this year. His previous one was too long ago.

The problem here is that JJJ is always there, always in shape, always plays hard, but they are already overpaying Ja Morant and Bane. And those three as your three best players is never going to win a title. Plus JJJ seems to not play well in the playoffs at all. 16/5 with 0.5 blocks on 38/27 shooting this year.

Edey, JJJ, Wells. Bane, Ja with Pippen, Clarke, Kennard, Santi seems good on paper... but that's probably a 2nd round team every year at best. If you give him that 30% deal while paying Ja and Bane 25%, you get to the aprons pretty quick. Santi and Kennard are FAs this year.

I maybe hope that Trae wants out and no one wants him so you can try to fleece a Ja for Trae deal.


Pretty sure there used to be at least one other grizz fan on here besides Iowa.
Iowaggie
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West Texan said:

Guitarsoup said:

Deluxe said:

How would you handle this offseason for the Grizz? Would you give JJJ the supermax?
There actually is a Grizzlies thread just for Iowa.

But I think they are in a tough spot. I think he can get 30%, not the 35% supermax since he didnt win the DPOY this year. His previous one was too long ago.

The problem here is that JJJ is always there, always in shape, always plays hard, but they are already overpaying Ja Morant and Bane. And those three as your three best players is never going to win a title. Plus JJJ seems to not play well in the playoffs at all. 16/5 with 0.5 blocks on 38/27 shooting this year.

Edey, JJJ, Wells. Bane, Ja with Pippen, Clarke, Kennard, Santi seems good on paper... but that's probably a 2nd round team every year at best. If you give him that 30% deal while paying Ja and Bane 25%, you get to the aprons pretty quick. Santi and Kennard are FAs this year.

I maybe hope that Trae wants out and no one wants him so you can try to fleece a Ja for Trae deal.


Pretty sure there used to be at least one other grizz fan on here besides Iowa.

I put my response in the Grizzlies thread.


There was another Grizz fan here, but that was probably when Marc Gasol was still with the Grizzlies (so it is still in that thread).

When that thread started, Donald Trump was starting to rise in Republican primaries before being elected president the first time.
Iowaggie
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TheNotoriousP.I.P. said:

Finals: Thunder over Knicks
MVP: SGA




This still has a chance on nailing the top 2 predictions
TheNotoriousP.I.P.
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Just call me Nostradumbass
Iowaggie
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The voting breakdown:



Iowaggie
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For those who like historical perspectives:





Guitarsoup
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Iowaggie said:

The voting breakdown:


Joker putting up 30points, 13 boards, and 10 assists on 58/42/80 shooting and still not getting 1/3rd of the votes for MVP is wild. Led the league in PER, VORP, BPM, etc. And at center, he was 2nd in steals per game, behind only the Great Barrier Thief.
Iowaggie
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The All-NBA teams



AggieEP
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Depending on the meaning of MVP, you could see this race a couple of different ways. I think the Thunder are still the 1 seed without Shai, they're that good as a team. I think the Nuggets might miss the playoffs without Joker.

The X factor here with the voting was fatigue from Joker winning 3 already. And dumb as it is, that single factor is likely what actually cost Joker the award.

That said, it's not like Shea is a chump.
ATM9000
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AggieEP said:

Depending on the meaning of MVP, you could see this race a couple of different ways. I think the Thunder are still the 1 seed without Shai, they're that good as a team. I think the Nuggets might miss the playoffs without Joker.

I mean… yeah maybe. But that's as much to do with OKC being the 1 seed by 16 games and the Nuggets only 2 games out of the play in.
Guitarsoup
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Joker still led Denver to 50 wins despite their coach getting fired, 36yo Westbrick playing a significant role, key starter KCP walking away for nothing in free agency, and Aaron Gordon missing almost half the season.

Nuggets were also 2 games out of 2nd seed and held the tie breaker over Houston.

SGA is a worthy MVP candidate, obviously, but Joker is much more valuable and carried a much bigger load. Replace SGA with a replacement level PG and they are still a playoff team. Replace Joker and they are a lottery team.

I just think that Joker is the better player and what he did this year is much more impressive than what SGA did.
Head Ninja In Charge
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Shai should've won it last year. Jokic should've won it this year.
ATM9000
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Guitarsoup said:

Replace SGA with a replacement level PG and they are still a playoff team. Replace Joker and they are a lottery team.


Right. Because Denver has a worse team than OKC.
Iowaggie
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Nationally, I wonder how many folks picked Pacers v OKC in the Finals.


Does OKC win 3 titles through the 2029 playoffs (so this year, plus the next 4 playoffs)?
Look Out Below
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I'll go with yes. Even if they have to pay (or not pay) some of these young guys eventually, they still have year after year of multiple first round draft picks to go with what they have now. Also, with their trade capital, I guarantee some star will go ring hunting be it by trade or free agency. Wouldn't surprise me to see KD show up back in OKC.
Deluxe
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Iowaggie said:

Does OKC win 3 titles through the 2029 playoffs (so this year, plus the next 4 playoffs)?
Assuming they win this year (which I think they will but you never know), I would bet that they do. Things change fast in the NBA these days but the Thunder are as well setup as you can possibly be to sustain a run.

Next year's team will be the exact same. The only items on the offseason agenda will be 1) execute SGA's supermax (if he elects to do it now instead of waiting until after next year), 2) get Jdub and Chet's extensions done, and 3) make some minor moves to cleanup the roster. Maybe flip one of their 25 picks for an unprotected swap out in the future. Maybe consolidate their picks to move up and get a guy they like. It's all about solidifying getting talent on rookie deals to surround SGA, Chet and Jdub long term.

The landscape could change a bit this offseason. While I would bet my life on OKC getting the 1 seed again next year, certain seven game series matchups could still be a challenge. Denver could stay healthy and find a way to obtain 1-2 critical depth pieces/role players. SA or HOU could supercharge their rebuilds with a big trade. MIN isn't going anywhere. LAL and GS will harvest every last bit of their future to pickup a difference maker in the name of 1-2 more runs with their cores. Ultimately I think OKC remains the favorite but the west won't be easy.

If the Thunder win again in 25-26, they could basically bring the same team back in 26-27 and stay under the 2nd apron. It would require a little finessing around the edges (maybe deal Joe, trade forward their batch of 26 firsts, don't pickup Kenrich's option) but it could be done. But things get very expensive with Jdub and Chet's extensions kicking in. If they aren't going for three-in-a-row in 26-27, that could be their opportunity to flip Dort in advance of his last season and save $18M.

Longer term, the table is set. SGA, Chet and Jdub is the nucleus. Caruso and Wiggins are both signed through 2029. Topic and Ajay Mitchell are coming up. Cason will likely be a cap casualty after 2027. It's also hard to imagine Dort being around past his expiration date unless he's willing to take a giant discount (which he might). I have zero doubts about Presti's ability to identify talent on the defensive perimeter to replace them though.

The main long term question is at center. Hart is such an important part of the team and I really hope they can figure out a way to keep him after 2027, but it would make things very very tight from a cap perspective. It's possible they draft a big or two this year and start grooming someone to take his spot down the road.
Guitarsoup
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I think Thunder will be the prohibitive favorite next year.

This summer is when Chet and JDub can get their extensions. JDub should absolutely get a 25% max. I don't think Chet should, but he should probably be close. There aren't many high level rim protectors that can shoot 38% from three.

If JDub and Chet both get 25% starting in 26-27, that is 42.5M each. They will need to move players or they are a 2nd apron without any other move.

26-27:
Chet 25%
JDub 25%
SGA 24%
Hart 17%
Caruso 11.5%
Dort 10%
Joe 7%
Wiggins 5%
Wallace 4%
Williams 4%
Topic 3%
Jones 2%

That is ~140% of the cap without any other acquisitions such as their picks this year. And the following year, SGA goes from 24% to 35%.
Deluxe
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Yea 26-27 is where things get tight. If they're going for three-in-a-row, I think they'll pickup Dort/Hart's options and finesse around the edges to get under the 2nd apron. At the same time, I'm not sure many of the 2nd apron penalties would be that prohibitive to them exceeding it for a year.

If they aren't going for three in 26-27, that's where I could see them doing something a little bit more intentional to lower their tax bill. Dort probably becomes the odd man out.

Agree that Jdub as earned his max. Chet you could make a case maybe not but I think they'll error on the side of giving it to him if they get the ring this year. No point in haggling.
Guitarsoup
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There are going to be a lot of teams ready to line up to offer Chet that 25% max if OKC doesn't. Just a really portable archetype of a player that can fit in basically anywhere.
Deluxe
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For sure. No reason to bring any unnecessary drama. Max extend both. Have a press conference. Keep the ship sailing.
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