I was curious what the Astros 2025 record is based on runs scored and runs allowed.
Per baseball reference, the 2025 average runs scored per team per game is 4.4 therefore 4 runs per games will be used as the MODE average. What is the outcome when the Astros score 3 runs or less, 4 runs, 5-9 runs, and 10+ runs? Also, what is the outcome when the Astros allow runs in the same groupings? How do the Astros do in "Pitchers Duels" (neither team scores more then 3 runs) and "Shoot Outs" (both teams score more than 10 runs)?
Below are the Astros records are split by runs scored by the Astros then runs allowed by the Astros:
0: 0-4 | 9-0
1: 2-15 | 16-1
2: 10-7 | 8-4
3: 8-11 | 18-6 ..... 22-37 | 51-11
4: 6-4 | 7-7
5: 8-2 | 2-7
6: 7-4 | 0-4
7: 5-0 | 2-10
8: 4-0 | 0-2
9: 4-1 | 0-1 ..... 28-7 | 4-24
10+: 8-0 | 0-6 ..... 36-7 | 4-30
Pitchers Duels: 20-11
Shoot Outs: 0 outcomes
The Astros score 3 runs or less in 52% of their games played (57) but give up fewer than 4 runs in 56% of their games played (62) [Less than the MODE]. They are tied for 19th in the league in runs scored per game.
The Astros score 4 or more runs in 48% of games played (53) and allow 4 or more runs in 44% of games played (48) [MODE or better]. They are 4th in the league in runs allowed per game.
If the Astros can score at least 4 runs they are highly likely to win the game and those odds dramatically increase if they score 5 or more. The question is, what is preventing them from scoring at least 4 runs?
Below are how the Astros currently stand vs the league in several different catagories.
Positives:
They are 2nd in the league in BA (.257 vs .246 league avg), tied for 9th in OBP (.321 vs .316 league avg), tied for 12th in Total Bases, 14th in Slugging (.404 vs .402 league avg), and 12th in OPS (.726 vs .718 league average).
Negatives:
They are 29th (2nd worse) in the league in GiDP (88 vs 71 league avg), tied for 23rd in SB (56 vs 79 league avg), and 20th in LOB (760 vs 748 league avg). If TOOTBLANs were quantified it is likely the Astros are above the league average as well. (What did the radio guys say about this stat last night?)
Neutral or Average:
They are tied for 12th in Sac Bunts (13 vs 13) and tied for 8th in Sac Flys (33 vs 30). While they don't walk enough [tied 26th] (318 vs 350) they also do not strike out a lot [8th] (864 vs 908). The Astros HR numbers are average at 14th (121 vs 124) but both doubles and triples are well below league average.