Houston..we have a problem....

7,772,897 Views | 29269 Replies | Last: 5 hrs ago by TraditionsPD
Sims
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An interesting set of data points from our customers (super majors) is an uptick in gas focused equipment versus the historical scope of probably 95% liquids focused (2 & 3 phase separation).

Outside of the business, I've been reading about the frequency in which coal to gas conversions are happening on legacy coal generators to support data center growth.

With those two things being considered and also the level to which processors are able to use crude or gas to get similar end products, I think we'll end up with oil falling and gas rising. Gas rising in price should necessarily influnece oil down for the same reason observed in the Permian where high oil means lower gas. Since it is often co-produced, you end up sacrificing one to get the other.

I don't think we're looking at an industry down turn but I do think the industry is pivoting to gas more than they have in the last 15 years.
Furlock Bones
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NG is indeed back. I have talked to a few people internally and externally. I'm not sure I believe the data center demand will be as great as some are touting. There's a belief that AI will solve some of its own energy inefficiencies. But, there is serious demand in the near term.

Independent producers are struggling though. Their input costs for materials and labor has gone up so much that they are back to needing $68 plus oil prices to maintain.
AgLA06
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Something I noticed is 40% of BP's subsea projects for the next 3 years are gas in Trinidad. Shell is there also.

Exxon announced this week they're entering the region in a major play. Seems like it's the hot place to be.

https://www.ogj.com/exploration-development/area-drilling/news/55310182/exxonmobil-to-invest-up-to-217-billion-in-new-trinidad-deepwater-exploration
MAROON
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Yep - has been for a while. we sell a lot of pipe into T&T.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
Boat Shoes
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Crescent buying Vital?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crescent-energy-nears-deal-us-shale-peer-vital-energy-sources-say-2025-08-22/
nosoupforyou
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Boat Shoes said:

Crescent buying Vital?

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/crescent-energy-nears-deal-us-shale-peer-vital-energy-sources-say-2025-08-22/

it's done - $3.1 Billion and close by end of year

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/crescent-energy-acquire-permians-vital-31b-deal-213916?utm_source=hart-energy-alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20250825
nosoupforyou
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Prairie Operating Co. announced on Aug. 28 the closing of two previously announced bolt-on acquisitions in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin.
Together, the deals add approximately 16,000 net acres to Prairie's portfolio.

Who did they get this from?

And did anyone figure out who Civitas sold their DJ position to?
MarleyFeed97
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Prairie bought Nickel Road but can't remember the other deal offhand
-MarleyFeed97
Furlock Bones
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Plains buying stake in EPIC pipeline from Diamondback and Kinetik.
Furlock Bones
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Ag CPA
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Hard to fathom how that is even possible for a company the size of COP.
nosoupforyou
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I guess that includes the Marathon people that are gone or soon to go

Wonder how many are Houston vs Global
txaggie_08
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They have, what, about 12k employees? So you're talking up to 3,000 people losing their jobs.
MavsAg
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Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.
RogerFurlong
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Is the oil field just automating these jobs? I've been out of it for a few years now and felt like it was heading that way when I left.
Ezra Brooks
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MavsAg said:

Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.

Took me almost exactly 6 months to find job after being let go from one of the big OEM's.
Sims
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RogerFurlong said:

Is the oil field just automating these jobs? I've been out of it for a few years now and felt like it was heading that way when I left.

Some of them are just turning headcount into an invoice.

Cut 1200 domestic employees in AP/AR/Engineering, call up Shared Services in Bengaluru...I stop short of saying proift because I am on the side of the equation that has to deal with the results of piss poor service...so...not profit.
Fuzzy Dunlop
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MavsAg said:

Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.

I was laid off in February and was out of work for four months. I looked outside O&G first but found a job in oil & gas in June. It's a great job, but I know there are no guarantees in this one either. It can end tomorrow and I'll be looking again.
Double Talkin' Jive...
Comeby!
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All these companies are outsourcing.
Texag5324
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Quote:

Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.

Chevron/Hess 20%+ layoff, BP 32% layoffs, and now COP 25% layoff. Its absolutely brutal, it reminds me of 2015 when every oil and gas company was laying off. There will be a lot of people looking for work and not enough jobs for everybody. Theres going to be a mass exodus of talent leaving the industry and will be similar to the dilemma a lot of oil companies were facing 10-15 years ago, they will have older employees and younger employees but no one in between.

Im not even sure recent college grads want to enter the oil and gas industry anymore, its no longer the "sexy" industry.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-oil-gas-company-layoffs-2024-2025-2025-09-03/
planoaggie123
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Comeby! said:

All these companies are outsourcing.

Yup. A lot of this. Accenture i know is a big player. I am sure there are others.

What I have heard....it saves money (eventually...not immediately) but then becomes a headache...shockingly the amazing story sold is not the story that comes to be....

I wonder at some point does government step in? I am not saying they should or should not but could tax breaks for keeping US employees (or conversely tax penalties for offshoring) be a thing? heck maybe there are rules/regulations i am not sure but at some point the US economy will be in trouble if everyone is unemployed because of cheap international labor with lower labor costs / quality of life.
one safe place
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RogerFurlong said:

Is the oil field just automating these jobs? I've been out of it for a few years now and felt like it was heading that way when I left.

I would guess a good bit of it is redundancy due to the acquisition of Marathon. And sometimes when there is a big change like an acquisition/merger/etc. they see it as a time to cut what they see as fat, whether real or imagined.
one safe place
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Texag5324 said:

Quote:

Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.

Chevron/Hess 20%+ layoff, BP 32% layoffs, and now COP 25% layoff. Its absolutely brutal, it reminds me of 2015 when every oil and gas company was laying off. There will be a lot of people looking for work and not enough jobs for everybody. Theres going to be a mass exodus of talent leaving the industry and will be similar to the dilemma a lot of oil companies were facing 10-15 years ago, they will have older employees and younger employees but no one in between.

Im not even sure recent college grads want to enter the oil and gas industry anymore, its no longer the "sexy" industry.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-oil-gas-company-layoffs-2024-2025-2025-09-03/

Was way longer than 10-15 years ago when I was in this situation. It was around 40 years ago when I was at an O&G company that had that exact situation in the part of the company in which I worked. A lot of folks (including me) with 5 years or less experience, and a lot of folks with 15 to 20 years or more, but not much in the middle. The company had grown fast and more than a few people got promoted into jobs for which they were not ready. While I am a firm believer in hiring from within, that can be bad when nobody within the company has the requisite experience but gets promoted anyway.

It was a **** show by the time I had been there five years. There was something like 61 million or 91 million (I forget which) in accounts receivable that we did not know how much was still owed to us, or had been collected and not credited to the right account, or (in a few instances paid twice to us). They had several dozen people working through that.

The only way to survive in those big oil and gas companies (and I suppose any big company regardless of industry but I only worked in oil and gas other than in public accounting) was to find out what closets contained the skeletons. Once you were aware, share that information with nobody, but let some of those above you know you know. The ones that also know of the problems.

I was still there when all the news programs showed people being let go, carrying those bankers boxes containing their personal possessions on their way out of their building. I wanted to be laid off so that they would vest me in the retirement plan (they often did that) and I had a job back in public accounting lined up. I think they did not let me go do so because of what I knew. There were like six things that could have cost the company $50 or $60 million and I think they didn't want to piss me off. Only 5 or 6 people knew of these issues, all of them higher up than me.

My reason for wanting to get out of industry was the way I saw people being treated. Or mistreated. Never happened to me, but I witnessed it with quite a few. It bothered me to see people with 10 or 12 years with a company that the company no longer wanted. Having to start over, spouse and kids in many situations. Had to be terrifying, I saw first hand how stressful it was.

I quit the afternoon of the day I became vested in the retirement plan, and it is strange looking back now at how that sequence of events impacted me my whole life. Most of the time after that, in businesses I owned, it was me and one other person, sometimes two other people. I could have made more money by hiring more people, or through smaller acquisitions, but I never wanted to be in a situation that I had to let good people go because business declined. I could fire folks for poor performance with no problem, but not sure I could handle letting good performing people go because of a decline in business, in other words through no fault of their own.

I feel for all those impacted by this and similar situations.
aggiesherpa
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AG
Accenture is who my current company uses. If anything falls outside of the desk manual, nothing gets done. Super frustrating.

A previous company used IBM for finance/accounting outsourcing.
Pasquale Liucci
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aggiesherpa said:

Accenture is who my current company uses. If anything falls outside of the desk manual, nothing gets done. Super frustrating.

A previous company used IBM for finance/accounting outsourcing.


Same (Accenture) - and same user experience
Dirty Mike and the Boys
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I'm on the trading side at one of the aforementioned majors. We outsource our confirms and some accounting to a group in Eastern Europe. I'd be a rich man if I had a dime for every time I've heard "I can't help with that now, it's time to go home," at 11 AM, when these folks have specifically signed off that they are to be available during normal work hours in the states. It's gotten to the point I document and screenshot each time it's stated, as they're support for some metrics I'm graded on annually.
Caliber
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Texag5324 said:

Quote:

Where are all these people going to find jobs? I really feel for all the folks who have worked for years at these large O&G companies only to be let or go a victim of an acquisition. The few jobs that are out there have to be nearly impossible to get with so many in our industry out of work.

Chevron/Hess 20%+ layoff, BP 32% layoffs, and now COP 25% layoff. Its absolutely brutal, it reminds me of 2015 when every oil and gas company was laying off. There will be a lot of people looking for work and not enough jobs for everybody. Theres going to be a mass exodus of talent leaving the industry and will be similar to the dilemma a lot of oil companies were facing 10-15 years ago, they will have older employees and younger employees but no one in between.

Im not even sure recent college grads want to enter the oil and gas industry anymore, its no longer the "sexy" industry.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-oil-gas-company-layoffs-2024-2025-2025-09-03/


Oil& gas hasn't been sexy for at least a decade already. College recruiting for anything tech related in O&G had been tough for a long time.
Comeby!
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one safe place said:


My reason for wanting to get out of industry was the way I saw people being treated. Or mistreated. Never happened to me, but I witnessed it with quite a few. It bothered me to see people with 10 or 12 years with a company that the company no longer wanted. Having to start over, spouse and kids in many situations. Had to be terrifying, I saw first hand how stressful it was.
I feel for all those impacted by this and similar situations.


I see nothing has changed since then. I believe this cycle is the worst it's ever been.
JB!98
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Sims said:

An interesting set of data points from our customers (super majors) is an uptick in gas focused equipment versus the historical scope of probably 95% liquids focused (2 & 3 phase separation).

Outside of the business, I've been reading about the frequency in which coal to gas conversions are happening on legacy coal generators to support data center growth.

With those two things being considered and also the level to which processors are able to use crude or gas to get similar end products, I think we'll end up with oil falling and gas rising. Gas rising in price should necessarily influnece oil down for the same reason observed in the Permian where high oil means lower gas. Since it is often co-produced, you end up sacrificing one to get the other.

I don't think we're looking at an industry down turn but I do think the industry is pivoting to gas more than they have in the last 15 years.

From someone formerly in the utility side of the business and now in the datacenter side, "gassification" of coal plants is a real thing and will progress in the ERCOT market. There is just too much transmission infrastructure built into these plants to not continue to use them.
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miller0926
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Kinda crazy to think about how 18 months ago, I couldn't go 2 weeks without a head hunter reaching out to me.
Texag5324
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miller0926 said:

Kinda crazy to think about how 18 months ago, I couldn't go 2 weeks without a head hunter reaching out to me.

I remember the glory days of 2013-early 2014, I would get Linkedin messages from Recruiters and other companies multiple times a week. And these were all good paying jobs while I was pretty young in my career. These days its crickets.
Furlock Bones
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thing about headcount reductions and moving roles to India is it is all bottom line related. none of it is top line improvement.
Dr. Doctor
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Wood Group to be bought by Sidara

Interesting, since they do lots of O&G work. Odd for such a large company to be bought for a small amount. Large amount of debt as well.

~egon
Sims
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5.7B in revenue, 300M acquisition cost, board says "capital structure is unsustainable..."

That's a whole lotta bankrupt right there.
Caliber
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Dr. Doctor said:

Wood Group to be bought by Sidara

Interesting, since they do lots of O&G work. Odd for such a large company to be bought for a small amount. Large amount of debt as well.

~egon

Wood made a bunch of bad decisions, going at least as far back to when they bought AMEC Foster Wheeler. Got a lot of bad debt, legal issues and other things with that. I don't think they ever really managed to clean house from those poor decision makers.
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