Yukon Cornelius said:

---

BTCs 4th attempt to break out. Let's go

---

tagged ATH and got rejected. Patience and it will rip

No doubt no doubt

fauxstradamus said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

If you follow power law mathematics 2040 is over $4M. Not sure how old you are but I hope you live another 15 years!

---

51 years young lol, in 15 years BTC will be $6m a coin and I will be near a beach

I hope that is realized for you and much more. And on a shorter time frame

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

The power law is very conservative. A simple way to calculate it I learned recently is this: divide future years since genesis block by current years since genesis block and take the ratio to a power of 5.8. This gives you a ratio of what Bitcoin will be at that point in the future. For example, (20.5/16.5)*5.8 yields $394000 in 4 years.

That's still a phenomenal return if you buy today.

Yukon Cornelius said:

---

That's still a phenomenal return if you buy today.

---

Agree. I wonder what it will take for some people to realize they were wrong about it. Out of over 4k four-year holding periods, more than 90% had a CAGR of at least 30%. That is unprecedented.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

The power law is very conservative. A simple way to calculate it I learned recently is this: divide future years since genesis block by current years since genesis block and take the ratio to a power of 5.8. This gives you a ratio of what Bitcoin will be at that point in the future. For example, (20.5/16.5)*5.8 yields $394000 in 4 years.

---

You are literally quoting the power law. It's a channel of standard deviation around a linear regression. You could change the power to 5.7 or 5.6 if you want to try and discount "bubbles" and be more conservative.

Using this model, Giovanni introduced a simple formula to estimate Bitcoin's future price: Price equals a constant multiplied by the number of days since the Genesis Block raised to the power of 5.8. Based on this, he predicts Bitcoin may reach around $210,000 by early 2026, with long-term projections extending up to $1 million by 2033. The model also anticipates price contractions between cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's historical volatility while reinforcing its long-term uptrend.

Yukon Cornelius said:

---

I hope that is realized for you and much more. And on a shorter time frame

---

at $6m a coin that is a market cap of $120T, that would mean Bitcoin capturing a share of global M2, which puts the total addressable market for currency alone at $100-130 trillion.

it would also mean that the world has adopted the bitcoin standard. pretty exciting to think about

https://bitcoincompounding.com/

sometimes when I get burned out from work, I just go to this website and dream about a beach somewhere

XRP has broken out of a 3 month symmetrical wedge in the last few days. I'm not much of a technical trader so I don't plan to buy in. But if we hit $3.30-3.50 I plan to sell my small bag and then look for a retrace. I got in at 0.54 so I feel pretty good about that.

BTC ATH!

And there she goes….

CRYPTO BREAKOUT SZN!!!!

For me:
ETH
SEI
XLM
ADA

fauxstradamus said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

The power law is very conservative. A simple way to calculate it I learned recently is this: divide future years since genesis block by current years since genesis block and take the ratio to a power of 5.8. This gives you a ratio of what Bitcoin will be at that point in the future. For example, (20.5/16.5)*5.8 yields $394000 in 4 years.

---

You are literally quoting the power law. It's a channel of standard deviation around a linear regression. You could change the power to 5.7 or 5.6 if you want to try and discount "bubbles" and be more conservative.

Using this model, Giovanni introduced a simple formula to estimate Bitcoin's future price: Price equals a constant multiplied by the number of days since the Genesis Block raised to the power of 5.8. Based on this, he predicts Bitcoin may reach around $210,000 by early 2026, with long-term projections extending up to $1 million by 2033. The model also anticipates price contractions between cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's historical volatility while reinforcing its long-term uptrend.

---

The actual power law is more complex than a simple ratio to the power of 5.8. I just like the fact that I can easily calculate a simple ratio based on the current price. I don't think I implied anything otherwise. Why is what I wrote a problem?

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

fauxstradamus said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

The power law is very conservative. A simple way to calculate it I learned recently is this: divide future years since genesis block by current years since genesis block and take the ratio to a power of 5.8. This gives you a ratio of what Bitcoin will be at that point in the future. For example, (20.5/16.5)*5.8 yields $394000 in 4 years.

---

You are literally quoting the power law. It's a channel of standard deviation around a linear regression. You could change the power to 5.7 or 5.6 if you want to try and discount "bubbles" and be more conservative.

Using this model, Giovanni introduced a simple formula to estimate Bitcoin's future price: Price equals a constant multiplied by the number of days since the Genesis Block raised to the power of 5.8. Based on this, he predicts Bitcoin may reach around $210,000 by early 2026, with long-term projections extending up to $1 million by 2033. The model also anticipates price contractions between cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's historical volatility while reinforcing its long-term uptrend.

---

The actual power law is more complex than a simple ratio to the power of 5.8. I just like the fact that I can easily calculate a simple ratio based on the current price. I don't think I implied anything otherwise. Why is what I wrote a problem?

---

You are correct sir. I responded in haste. Power law is 10^-17 * days since genesis block ^n
(n can correspond to different quartiles or basically standard deviations above or below the median quartile)
5.8 is most commonly used for n and threw me because that typically corresponds to the 50% quartile price (what most calculators call "fair price") I had been listening to Stephen Perrenod on podcast and his astrophysicist mind threw me

I mean really, either way, price is going up forever Laura

fauxstradamus said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

fauxstradamus said:

---

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

The power law is very conservative. A simple way to calculate it I learned recently is this: divide future years since genesis block by current years since genesis block and take the ratio to a power of 5.8. This gives you a ratio of what Bitcoin will be at that point in the future. For example, (20.5/16.5)*5.8 yields $394000 in 4 years.

---

You are literally quoting the power law. It's a channel of standard deviation around a linear regression. You could change the power to 5.7 or 5.6 if you want to try and discount "bubbles" and be more conservative.

Using this model, Giovanni introduced a simple formula to estimate Bitcoin's future price: Price equals a constant multiplied by the number of days since the Genesis Block raised to the power of 5.8. Based on this, he predicts Bitcoin may reach around $210,000 by early 2026, with long-term projections extending up to $1 million by 2033. The model also anticipates price contractions between cycles, reflecting Bitcoin's historical volatility while reinforcing its long-term uptrend.

---

The actual power law is more complex than a simple ratio to the power of 5.8. I just like the fact that I can easily calculate a simple ratio based on the current price. I don't think I implied anything otherwise. Why is what I wrote a problem?

---

You are correct sir. I responded in haste. Power law is 10^-17 * days since genesis block ^n
(n can correspond to different quartiles or basically standard deviations above or below the median quartile)
5.8 is most commonly used for n and threw me because that typically corresponds to the 50% quartile price (what most calculators call "fair price") I had been listening to Stephen Perrenod on podcast and his astrophysicist mind threw me

I mean really, either way, price is going up forever Laura

---

No worries at all. Just remember the 3 rules of bitcoin. . .

Bag said:

---

fauxstradamus said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

If you follow power law mathematics 2040 is over $4M. Not sure how old you are but I hope you live another 15 years!

---

51 years young lol, in 15 years BTC will be $6m a coin and I will be near a beach

---

Bag said:

---

fauxstradamus said:

---

Bag said:

---

LMCane said:

---

what's the optimistic case for Bitcoin ever reaching $200,000?

and what is the current tax rate under Trump for gains in BTC when you sell?

---

i think $185k - $200k by end of year, imo.

Longterm its going to $4m - $6m a coin in my lifetime,

these are all just my opinions do your own research

---

If you follow power law mathematics 2040 is over $4M. Not sure how old you are but I hope you live another 15 years!

---

51 years young lol, in 15 years BTC will be $6m a coin and I will be near a beach

---

Bitcoin jumps about 2.5% after close

ETH jumps about 4%

jamey said:

---

Bitcoin jumps about 2.5% after close

ETH jumps about 4%

---

Jumped in both on Monday and already up about $2500. I'll take it. Future looks bright

Just need to hold this rally until opening. There's an INSANE amount of shorts on eth. I would be closing mine ASAP if I was short eth. I think actually probably a lot closed today. 200 million if bitcoin shorts got liquidated and 100 million in eth shorts got liquidated.

Bitcoin jumped more in 5 minutes that the entire price when I first bought it lmao.

I remember sweating 4k down to 3.2k

XRP to the moon

When transferring bitcoin off an exchange, it gives me several options for the network to use. Some have no fee, but if I don't use the bitcoin network, do I risk losing it or something else weird happening? Or do I have to use the bitcoin network no matter what?

Whatever your moving use that network to do it. Bitcoin. Use Bitcoin. Eth use ethereum.

Yukon Cornelius said:

---

Whatever your moving use that network to do it. Bitcoin. Use Bitcoin. Eth use ethereum.

---

I don't understand why Kraken gives me options other than the bitcoin network then. It knows I already told it that I am transferring bitcoin. Just curious if other networks can move bitcoin. I know Cardano can do this now, but it is not used by any exchanges yet.

https://medium.com/tap-in-with-taptools/1-btc-moves-between-bitcoin-and-cardano-with-no-bridge-7312d03f3ff6

fauxstradamus said:

---

XRP has broken out of a 3 month symmetrical wedge in the last few days. I'm not much of a technical trader so I don't plan to buy in. But if we hit $3.30-3.50 I plan to sell my small bag and then look for a retrace. I got in at 0.54 so I feel pretty good about that.

---

well crap. I should have acted like a trader on my own observations. Should have bought in more

They can move a derivative but it won't be actual bitcoin. I wouldn't mess with it

Got it, thanks. I was reading about those other networks, and there are risks of losing your bitcoin.

TxAG#2011 said:

---

Bitcoin jumped more in 5 minutes that the entire price when I first bought it lmao.

I remember sweating 4k down to 3.2k

---

now do $1m BTC

1% up or down is $10,000, if you are sitting on 10 BTC then ordinary movement 1-2% will be $100-$200k

the numbers get stupid after a while

Bag said:

---

TxAG#2011 said:

---

Bitcoin jumped more in 5 minutes that the entire price when I first bought it lmao.

I remember sweating 4k down to 3.2k

---

now do $1m BTC

1% up or down is $10,000, if you are sitting on 10 BTC then ordinary movement 1-2% will be $100-$200k

the numbers get stupid after a while

---

Two things..

1. For $1M BTC at the existing money supply, there would have to be some combo of gold, silver, equities, and bonds absolutely decimated where money moves to BTC and BTC gains market share against them. This is the "BTC is going to become the monetary standard" scenario.

2. For expanded money supply to get to $1M BTC, the payments for interest on the debt would likely be 2-4x higher than they are now, and they are already unsustainable. We would be on our way to becoming Greece financially, which hasn;t ever worked out well for any country that has hyperinflated. This is the "BTC continues to be the ultimate risk asset" scenario.

Either BTC is going to $1M in option 1, or BTC is not going to $1M and the money supply actually shrinks back to where it was pre-2020, aka, a mass liquidity event. BEcause should it get to $1M in option 2, it's just an even larger bubble with a much harder pop coming. Considering BTC moves up WITH risk assets, and has never once been a safe haven during risk-off events, mostly following the trajectory of the Nasdaq, even option 1 is not likely.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Bag said:

---

TxAG#2011 said:

---

Bitcoin jumped more in 5 minutes that the entire price when I first bought it lmao.

I remember sweating 4k down to 3.2k

---

now do $1m BTC

1% up or down is $10,000, if you are sitting on 10 BTC then ordinary movement 1-2% will be $100-$200k

the numbers get stupid after a while

---

Two things..

1. For $1M BTC at the existing money supply, there would have to be some combo of gold, silver, equities, and bonds absolutely decimated where money moves to BTC and BTC gains market share against them. This is the "BTC is going to become the monetary standard" scenario.

2. For expanded money supply to get to $1M BTC, the payments for interest on the debt would likely be 2-4x higher than they are now, and they are already unsustainable. We would be on our way to becoming Greece financially, which hasn;t ever worked out well for any country that has hyperinflated. This is the "BTC continues to be the ultimate risk asset" scenario.

Either BTC is going to $1M in option 1, or BTC is not going to $1M and the money supply actually shrinks back to where it was pre-2020, aka, a mass liquidity event. BEcause should it get to $1M in option 2, it's just an even larger bubble with a much harder pop coming. Considering BTC moves up WITH risk assets, and has never once been a safe haven during risk-off events, mostly following the trajectory of the Nasdaq, even option 1 is not likely.

---

The market cap of of gold is 10x BTC or $20T I see no reason why BTC cant get to at least the market cap of gold. Gold is not the monetary standard yet it sits at $20T