Let's see if Grok agrees.
The spot prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not 100% correlated with their ETF flows. While ETF flows can influence prices, the relationship is complex and varies over time.
For Bitcoin, statistical analysis shows a moderate correlation between spot ETF flows and price movements, with a correlation coefficient of around 0.30 over 7-day periods, meaning less than 10% of price changes are explained by ETF flows. This correlation has ranged from 0.10 to 0.50 on a rolling 60-day basis, strengthening in recent periods as ETFs became a primary source of new capital in 2024. However, price changes often lead ETF flows rather than the reverse, suggesting flows follow market sentiment more than they drive it.
For Ethereum, the correlation is less studied but appears weaker. ETH ETF inflows are estimated at 20-50% of BTC ETF flows, reflecting lower demand. Posts on X indicate periods where ETH ETF inflows were significant (e.g., $726.6M on July 16, 2025), yet ETH prices have shown greater volatility and less consistent correlation with flows compared to BTC. For instance, ETH dropped ~50% post-BTC halving in April 2024, while BTC rose ~16%, despite both having ETF inflows.
Key factors like market sentiment, regulatory news, and macroeconomic conditions also drive prices, preventing a perfect correlation. Additionally, ETH's supply dynamics (e.g., staking, DeFi) make it more price-sensitive to flows than BTC, but not consistently so.
In summary, while ETF flows provide meaningful context for price trends, neither BTC nor ETH spot prices are 100% correlated with them, with correlations varying and often being led by price movements or external factors.
