MSTR survived the last bear cycle pretty well. It seems to me you've taken a bear position on btc/crypto.

COW - Here's an example of how current price structure can dictate two potential realities.

The blue scenario has this topping in the final leg of a bear market bounce. But should price breakout above $0.60 decisively and target $0.67-$0.81, and then the next selloff hold above $0.32, it can go on to target $1 next year. Should this top off soon under $0.61, there's an absolute threat of a complete bearish wipeout.

That's because this has the classic making of two different patterns, and neither are impulsive in structure. The first is a classic 3-wave correction pattern that requires a very bearish drop off a major high (which happened earlier this year). That's the blue count. The second is what's called a leading diagonal. LD's form as the beginning move in a larger structure that can either be larger and more impulsive (a large 5-wave move significantly higher) or larger corrective (meaning a larger FIRST move in a larger bear market bounce that never gets back above the previous high). What makes trading this difficult is that both of the potential patterns will look VERY similar for most of their action. This is what happens when something is not in a true bull market. You get a constant push and pull from both bulls and bears, each winning little battles but neither able to fully pull away. By the time the eventual pattern is absolutely known and clear, it's either over already, or about to be. You can win in spurts with coins like this. There are shorter-term patterns that can play out more decisively bullish. But longer-term, there is no clarity for what the future holds. The blueprint is murky at best. These plays are considered gambles for long-term positioning, and my advice would be to take part in the bullish bursts and not be scared to take profits, as they will likely evaporate. Holding for longer term would be EXTREMELY frustrating.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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MSTR survived the last bear cycle pretty well. It seems to me you've taken a bear position on btc/crypto.

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Bitcoin is higher than its 2024 high, MSTR is not. Why is that?

I don't know. You tell me.

I'd guess MSTR has a higher premium when bitcoin is closer to a peak, than our current down ~5% or more from a peak. Might be an interesting chart as a percentage starting at a distant past peak

Looks like ETH hit right at 4250 last night

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I don't know. You tell me.

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MSTR vs BTC.

When BTC rises, MSTR can outperform. When BTC falls, MSTR falls HARD.



But since 2024, BTC has been outperforming. That's because Saylor has diluted equity. So right now, you aren't even getting the levered performance he would historically have you getting. Merely holding BTC would be better off.

And BTW, MSTR tanked 89% in the last bear "cycle". Are you advising MSTR holders to hold through something like that with expectations that the insane leverage added by Saylor since then won't end up with him tanking his company again like he did in 2000?

I'm not advising anyone anything. This discussion was in reference to BMNR and MSTR being rug pulls. Which I think historically it has shown to NOT be. True the stocks will have increased volatility. And there will be a point of diminishing returns. Maybe MSTR is approaching that.

Kind of shows BMNR is an excellent buy right now no?

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I'm not advising anyone anything. This discussion was in reference to BMNR and MSTR being rug pulls. Which I think historically it has shown to NOT be. True the stocks will have increased volatility. And there will be a point of diminishing returns. Maybe MSTR is approaching that.

Kind of shows BMNR is an excellent buy right now no?

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Maybe?

It's going to move up as long as ETH is moving up. Just better hope Mr. Lee doesn't dilute the **** out of you and underform the underlying like Mr. Saylor does.



Multi-week dip in ETH = Rug pull by Mr. Lee.

Who the hell is Tom Lee?

He's trying to create a "treasury" for ETH with Bitminer like Saylor did for BTC with MSTR.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Who the hell is Tom Lee?

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And he's probably the most listened to person on the stock market in general as far as what you can find on financial shows like Squal Box, various podcasts...etc

He's not the drummer for Motley Crue per his X username

BMNR Q4 earning reports will be very fascinating. We'll get to see how much revenue they have generated with a full quarter of deployed ETH.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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BMNR Q4 earning reports will be very fascinating. We'll get to see how much revenue they have generated with a full quarter of deployed ETH.

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I wish I had saved it but within last few days he was doing a podcast answering some questions


He noted initial BNMR represented $4 of ethereum per share and now it was $25, but then he hadded its much more now but $25 was the last official disclosure....to my recollection


It was a rather lengthy podcast. I nay have saved it. Ill post here if I find the one I think it is

I listened to that one as well. The big mechanism to me will be the earnings shown by deployed eth. It's going to be a lot. And then the market has to price a correct multiple to that. It could get real fun

I think it was this podcast but this is just a short, not the whole podcast


So its these 2 dudes interview of Tom Lee, I think

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I listened to that one as well. The big mechanism to me will be the earnings shown by deployed eth. It's going to be a lot. And then the market has to price a correct multiple to that. It could get real fun

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The one where hes basically selling the multiple or NAV calculations by including velocity and saying they're 12x MSTR velocity


Or something to that effect

Right. The 12x though is unsustainable long term. They are essentially rushing to get as much eth as possible. Diluting shares etc. I think their goal is show a robust earnings on the treasury assets.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Right. The 12x though is unsustainable long term. They are essentially rushing to get as much eth as possible. Diluting shares etc. I think their goal is show a robust earnings on the treasury assets.

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I assume part of their premium as Lee says, tied to volitility means they will try and trade eth, sell high and buy low to increase to the total QTY of eth

I think they will deploy it into defi. Eth staking and other stuff. Earning 3-5% on holdings.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think they will deploy it into defi. Eth staking and other stuff. Earning 3-5% on holdings.

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I thought that was another way to increase eth. Use yield to buy more


He listed about 5 ways they'd earn premium a month or so ago

On volitility he noted eth is more volitile than BTC

I would be surprised if they traded any. It would be a big red flag to me if they did.

jamey said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Right. The 12x though is unsustainable long term. They are essentially rushing to get as much eth as possible. Diluting shares etc. I think their goal is show a robust earnings on the treasury assets.

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I assume part of their premium as Lee says, tied to volitility means they will try and trade eth, sell high and buy low to increase to the total QTY of eth

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So part of their strategy is timing the market which nobody can do with 100% success ever.

Thunderstruck xx said:

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jamey said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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Right. The 12x though is unsustainable long term. They are essentially rushing to get as much eth as possible. Diluting shares etc. I think their goal is show a robust earnings on the treasury assets.

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I assume part of their premium as Lee says, tied to volitility means they will try and trade eth, sell high and buy low to increase to the total QTY of eth

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So part of their strategy is timing the market which nobody can do with 100% success ever.

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Pretty sure Saylor has done it and it's not timing the maket

Its timing 1 asset thats associated with cycles

My $0.02 here...

I think ETH possibly hits $4,400-4,500 then dips hard. Hold fast and be ready to reload.

MaroonStain said:

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My $0.02 here...

I think ETH possibly hits $4,400-4,500 then dips hard. Hold fast and be ready to reload.

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That could happen quick considering it just crossed 4293

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Trump's Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines resigns. pic.twitter.com/9uDngiWvRA

— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) August 9, 2025

Why? Any dips will get absorbed.

If it gets to the 4500 area, is anyone going to sell and then look for a reentry point?

No. We are breaking a multi year down trend with public companies fomoing in. Not selling any until 6-7k renge. And then only a maybe. And if ETHA produces yield from staking I may never sell my ETHA.

I have some short term calls on eths I bought to profit on the short term moves though.

BucketofBalls99 said:

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If it gets to the 4500 area, is anyone going to sell and then look for a reentry point?

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I bought a little extra ethereum above my base holding that I'm going to sell eventually. I'd like to see higher than 4500 considering its already hit 4300, even if it pulls back. Hard to imagine it doesn't at least hit the ATH with all thats happening

It would be good to find out this information on bitmine

REMINDER:

100% of Sharplink Gaming’s Ethereum is staked.

They’re not selling! pic.twitter.com/CK8BGFO4Tb

— CryptoGoos (@crypto_goos) August 9, 2025

Agreed. The competition between the two is good.

% of yield earned on their respective treasury assets in their earning reports will be very good information.

So there's ETH, ETHA, ETHU, etc….which are y'all in? I had bought into ETH back at the beginning of July

BucketofBalls99 said:

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So there's ETH, ETHA, ETHU, etc….which are y'all in? I had bought into ETH back at the beginning of July

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I use blackrock, ETHA and IBIT