Eth will flip btc.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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ETHUSD* ATH broken. Avoid the ETHBTC chart for now.

If we get to the point that there is substantial chatter about about ETH flipping BTC, I am going to take profits on BTC. This is my third cycle and that is one of 2-3 top signals I promised myself I'd trust.

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The talking heads like Tom Lee are already talking ETH flipping BTC


You dont think they can coincide, its one or the other, or do you mean taking just some profit and not selling all?

He's talking about a cycle top indicator. When people get too excited from eth pumping the narrative that Eth will flip btc in terms of marketcap starts making the rounds.

It's become a meme but the funny thing is it'll probably happen unless btc maxis stfu and support development ontop of btc.

0% chance ETH ever flips BTC. Willing to bet literally any amount on any timeline

It certainly can happen. Does it? Who knows. But there's certainly a very realistic path.

I disagree and I'd love to wager on it if you're interested. We can use an escrow service. I'll pay the fees. It will be fun

Sorry I don't bet. And the time frame could be a decade or more before it happens.

By holding ETH you're already betting on it my dude. I said any timeline. Consider what you're saying as a thought exercise. Earlier you definitively said ETH will flip BTC, now not interested.

What % chance do you give that scenario of happening? What odds would I have to give you to make the bet interesting?

Is your exposure to ETH vs BTC greater than the % that popped into your head? If so, why

I was joking with you when I said it in a definitive manner to fulfill your top signal. I know it doesn't come through well via text on a forum lol.

I wouldnt really call it a bet per se. It's not a win or lose. I have a good entry on my eth position. I saw this run up coming. I started posting about eth here back before it happened.

I started rotating some of my btc into eth starting in April but really kicked in beginning of June.

Essentially for me the trigger was blackrock filing to stake their eth. Followed up by JP Morgan's announcement.


I've been in this several cycles now. I made a large entry 100% BTC before this halving. (As I have done before). BTC was the most low risk obvious investment back then.

However today it's not the same. We haven't 2xed since the halving. Each halving we will continue to see diminishing returns. I'm going to short IBiT next halving. But the miners will still see a 50% revenue cut. We will see a drop in hashrate. A drop in price post halving. This next halving will get front ran so hard there won't be any post halving liquidity to pump. When that happens the entire speculative thesis gets BLOWN up. And withour the speculative cycle btc really doesn't have the pull for high end liquidity. We will see a prolonged bear cycle next cycle IMO.

And that will allow eth IF IF IF IF (big IFs) is continued to be adopted and utilized for tokenization by institutions.

Those two scenario's coinciding will allow eth to surpass BTC in MC.

Now BTC failing speculatively next cycle is very high to
me. Probably at an 80% chance.

Eth adoption is more like a 40-50% chance. So combined for both to coincided is give it a roughly a 20-30% chance.

I'm 85% btc. Well maybe a little lower on eths pump today.

Good answer, my apologies for missing the joke. But consider the wager an indefinite offer.

Out of curiosity how much we talking?

Up to $100k

I fold

Should take the bet and make em pay the fees. As long as it's least .01, you can't definitively say it can't still catch it.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I was joking with you when I said it in a definitive manner to fulfill your top signal. I know it doesn't come through well via text on a forum lol.

I wouldnt really call it a bet per se. It's not a win or lose. I have a good entry on my eth position. I saw this run up coming. I started posting about eth here back before it happened.

I started rotating some of my btc into eth starting in April but really kicked in beginning of June.

Essentially for me the trigger was blackrock filing to stake their eth. Followed up by JP Morgan's announcement.


I've been in this several cycles now. I made a large entry 100% BTC before this halving. (As I have done before). BTC was the most low risk obvious investment back then.

However today it's not the same. We haven't 2xed since the halving. Each halving we will continue to see diminishing returns. I'm going to short IBiT next halving. But the miners will still see a 50% revenue cut. We will see a drop in hashrate. A drop in price post halving. This next halving will get front ran so hard there won't be any post halving liquidity to pump. When that happens the entire speculative thesis gets BLOWN up. And withour the speculative cycle btc really doesn't have the pull for high end liquidity. We will see a prolonged bear cycle next cycle IMO.

And that will allow eth IF IF IF IF (big IFs) is continued to be adopted and utilized for tokenization by institutions.

Those two scenario's coinciding will allow eth to surpass BTC in MC.

Now BTC failing speculatively next cycle is very high to
me. Probably at an 80% chance.

Eth adoption is more like a 40-50% chance. So combined for both to coincided is give it a roughly a 20-30% chance.

I'm 85% btc. Well maybe a little lower on eths pump today.

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When do you plan to start selling bitcoin, got a target / exist strategy

Long time to lock that much up earning zero lol

I sold enough to get my principal out earlier this year when we pumped over 100k. So I'm net free. My plan is once I can do an inkind transfer to IBIT I'll transfer it into that. Then I'll sell Covered calls on it. If I someday get assigned so be it. I also have some that I will never sell. It's in a legal entity to be passed onto my kids. I have zero stress/interest in timing any cycle top with my strategy. So it's comfy. Just waiting on the slow antiquated SEC to approve the inkind transfers.

So much more functional utility in ETH for banking, smart contracts etc. Why would you own BTC when you can stake your ETH for use in so many more decentralized apps?

Ultimately we will learn greed destroyed BTC. It went from a decentralized electronic P2P payment system that bypassed custodians, to a digital gold or imaginary Manhattan run by Wall St. casino operators. In a nutshell, Satoshi was replaced with Larry Fink.

Maybe BTC goes to $1M before this all plays out. Its been an epic trade/investment for so many, but its not bullish at all when a legend like Tom Lee comes out with a ETH version of MSTR. Saylor is a super wealthy IT nerd that sounds like a preacher on peyote, he will be fine, but so many others late to the party will get destroyed in this game of musical chairs.

BTC has evolved to merely a finite property in high demand. Without demand, its just imaginary property.

My game is to basically take profits on the higher cost shares as BTC and ETH go up, buy back when it drops..etc

But the goal is to create a gap between current price and my average and to ultimately go net free or close to it


I agree there's a chance, probably even a good chance this stuff changes up who's at the top of the leader board

It wouldn't shock me if in a decade or more neither ETH or BTC are at the top of the leader board


Another pop this cycle would make it all much easier. 150K BTC and 6K ETH would be awesome

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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0% chance ETH ever flips BTC. Willing to bet literally any amount on any timeline

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Ill bet you. What odds are you willing to give against your 0% probability? Ill give you 5x a 1% chance, +1900. Thats free money for you if its a 0% chance, you cant lose. Or how about +900, that would be a 10% chance, 10x better for you!

My guess is you really arent willing to "literally bet". Or you have no idea how betting and probabilities work.

Unlike posting on the internet. When you actually place a bet and put your money where your mouth is, you are forced to consider the possibility of being wrong. Then your 100% certain outcome, becomes much less certain.

FYI, An even money bet, where we each payout the same amount of money if wrong, is a 50% chance.

Go to crypto part. Tom Lee says 50% Eth slips btc in MC.

I saw that clip yesterday. But Tom Lee isnt posting on this thread about "literally betting", NFL is.

Tom says 50% in couple years, NFL says 0% over any time period.

The only thing that is 0% is NFL actually doing what he said, and actually betting....."literally" lol

I proposed odds in my post you responded to.

How about $1000 at +2000 odds of ETH becoming a larger market cap than BTC is, within 5 years. Thats generous per your estimation of 0% chance under an infinite timeline.

I pay you $1000 if ETH doesnt flip BTC in 5 years, and you pay me $20,000 if it does.

That's a free $1000 for something you are certain of.

If you have changed your mind about it being a 0% probability on any timeframe, propose some odds and a time window.

No need to insult me, or brag about how big a baller you are. Just bet me.

I'll make you a deal you can't refuse NFLprops. If ETH doesn't flip btc on MC before the next two halvings. So before the halving in 32. I'll buy you a year of Texags subscription. If eth flips btc in MC, even for a second before the halving in 2032 you buy me a year of Texags subscription. And I'm talking 3 gold star level.

And just for the record, I've always enjoyed your contributions to various threads.

How about you guys bet on something more within my probable life span like the top for ETH and BTC this cycle and when

I don't think BTC will have a daily close above 150k this cycle. If someone wants to bet me a year of Texags on that I'll be willing.

I am retired from BTC price predictions. The important thing is that it's going up forever, Laura.

Probably wise, btc price predictions are a losing game

You said you would "literally bet", I asked you what odds, then I offered some odds that were way better than your 0% over any time period....now you are whining with ad hominems.

What odds will you offer? +1000? +700? These odds are ridiculously in your favor for an outcome you are certain is 0%.

Lets cut the nonsense and bet real cash. This is a crypto thread, with a super interesting dynamic at play between ETH and BTC. Lets bet on it.

You mentioned +700. My $7,000 vs your $1,000 for 5 years? You sure? I'm ready to set up the escrow, hoping you're not an internet tough guy bumping your gums.