Yukon Cornelius said:

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I enjoy these conversations, I just think it's important to understand reality. There are definitely those who think btc will become the world reserve currency. That's great. However. The money, the ETF buyers are trying to make money. They will dump even faster than they bought when the time comes.

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All will rise and dump as money supply expands and contracts. People have to have money to invest. when money becomes less ample and economic situations worsen, people pull back. It doesn't matter what the asset is, how scarce it is, or how world changing it is. There is only bid and ask. And if BTC can prove there will always a be a bid (for the first time in its life.. never has to date without a massive selloff) to outpace the ask at key turns, it will be the first thing in history to do so.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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This is ETH's problem. Their issuance schedule (monetary policy) is a joke. Switching to PoS was so reactionary and short-sighted and just made everything worse. You can probably make money off it for a while but for god's sake don't marry your bags

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ETH is the wannabe ADA that's try to copy daddy ADA which is doing everything right from the beginning. ETH just had the first mover advantage, but this BS will catch up to ETH in the long run.

Here's what I mean about choosing the correct denominator to measure your gains on altcoins.

ETH against USD:



ETH against BTC:

Even if BTC dies, the network built by legit decentralized networks like Cardano will survive IMO. Cardano is the key to the next evolution of the internet. First there was Web 1.0, then Web 2.0 (the internet we know today), and Cardano will help bring us Web 3.0: A major jump in the internet which I think holds tremendous value.

ADABTC

Yall just keep me posted on when I need to exit my BTC position. Just added more at 115 on Friday. I'd prefer a heads up before the bottom falls out.

If you want to be accurate the chart should show issuance based on Genesis not date solely. You can see the eth issuance hit a wall last few years.

And going to near zero issuance will prove a problem for btc in years because activity is dropping off. And no one is talking about this yet but will in a few years.

For the record. Just ran my numbers. My crypto portfolio is 84% BTC.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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I enjoy these conversations, I just think it's important to understand reality. There are definitely those who think btc will become the world reserve currency. That's great. However. The money, the ETF buyers are trying to make money. They will dump even faster than they bought when the time comes.

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All will rise and dump as money supply expands and contracts. People have to have money to invest. when money becomes less ample and economic situations worsen, people pull back. It doesn't matter what the asset is, how scarce it is, or how world changing it is. There is only bid and ask. And if BTC can prove there will always a be a bid (for the first time in its life.. never has to date without a massive selloff) to outpace the ask at key turns, it will be the first thing in history to do so.

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BTC crashed from almost $10k to $4k over two days in March 2020 when every market in the world tanked. Government freaked out and went ZIRP and printed a laughable amount of money. Since then BTC has outperformed almost every other risk asset.

I definitely understand what you're saying and appreciate that BTC could easily crash and never recover in another one of these scenarios, but I feel like the COVID crash and subsequent price action has to count as resilience.

In its short history BTC has already survived multiple drawdowns of over 70% and come back much stronger each time. There are not many other assets in history I'm aware of that have done anything like that.

BCG Disciple said:

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Yall just keep me posted on when I need to exit my BTC position. Just added more at 115 on Friday. I'd prefer a heads up before the bottom falls out.

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https://www.coinglass.com/bull-market-peak-signals

Yukon Cornelius said:

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If you want to be accurate the chart should show issuance based on Genesis not date solely. You can see the eth issuance hit a wall last few years.

And going to near zero issuance will prove a problem for btc in years because activity is dropping off. And no one is talking about this yet but will in a few years.

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First off want to mention that I also enjoy these conversations and appreciate your perspective. I owned a decent amount of ETH from 2017 - 2021 so I understand its bull case.

Regarding BTC issuance, you're looking at it backwards IMO. From 2136-2140 the last 0.00000001 BTC will be mined. Imagine the hash rate and power that will be fighting for that amount if BTC can maintain even 10-15% of its historical CAGR. We're on halving number 4 out of 32 and up a zillion percent vs fiat and the hash rate is through the roof, the strongest computing network in history with no signs of slowing down.

And instead of looking at transaction count to measure activity for BTC, I would look at average notional USD being moved per transaction. And the relative cost to move it vs existing payment systems and/or ETH gas or whatever other cost you pay with alts. Dollars per transaction is accelerating fast and cost is falling off a cliff because the network isn't clogged with tards moving $10 at a time (when that is the case again its a great sign that we're topping btw).

Here is the farthest back I can get on TradingView for ETHBTC, if there is a better view I am interested:

Quote:

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For the record. Just ran my numbers. My crypto portfolio is 84% BTC.

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That's an interesting idea to use as a metric. This is what I could find. Looking at the all time timeline you can really see the spikes during the bull mania phases. If that holds true we still have ALOT of room to run.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionvalue-btc.html#alltime


My risk averse skeptical side of me thinks what happens next halving. We've seen diminished returns on price action but miner revenue is always cut in half. IF we falter in price it could break the speculative pos halving pump guarantee. Which coupled with lower TX costs could be problematic. But again it's a discussion for another day.

My biggest concern is Bitcoin is the ultimate meme coin and store of value digital gold is just that, a meme.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Yukon Cornelius said:

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I enjoy these conversations, I just think it's important to understand reality. There are definitely those who think btc will become the world reserve currency. That's great. However. The money, the ETF buyers are trying to make money. They will dump even faster than they bought when the time comes.

---

All will rise and dump as money supply expands and contracts. People have to have money to invest. when money becomes less ample and economic situations worsen, people pull back. It doesn't matter what the asset is, how scarce it is, or how world changing it is. There is only bid and ask. And if BTC can prove there will always a be a bid (for the first time in its life.. never has to date without a massive selloff) to outpace the ask at key turns, it will be the first thing in history to do so.

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BTC crashed from almost $10k to $4k over two days in March 2020 when every market in the world tanked. Government freaked out and went ZIRP and printed a laughable amount of money. Since then BTC has outperformed almost every other risk asset.

I definitely understand what you're saying and appreciate that BTC could easily crash and never recover in another one of these scenarios, but I feel like the COVID crash and subsequent price action has to count as resilience.

In its short history BTC has already survived multiple drawdowns of over 70% and come back much stronger each time. There are not many other assets in history I'm aware of that have done anything like that.

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Bitcoin has had a great run with the luxury of starting at $0. As adoption has grown during a 15 year bull market, the curve continues to more and more resemble the Nasdaq. It sells when risk asset sell, enjoying VASTLY worse drawdowns, and gains when Nasdaq gains, having the luxury of rebounding from such incredible lows. But at the end of the day, the trajectory is completely in lockstep with big tech equities, directly dependant on loose financial conditions or loose money supply growth. When liquidity dries up, or financial conditions tighten, BTC sells at the same time other risk assets sell. All of this, while also having the luxury of only being created after the last significant bear market.

In 2020, BTC didn't crash as much, because value had already sucked from $18k to $3k in the liquidity contraction and interest rate rising regime of 2018. In that same time, the Nasdaq fell from 7,800 to 5,900. Both sold in March 2020, and both sold at the exact same time and bottomed at the exact same time. Because both are risk assets tied to the same fate. BTC only looked good in 2020 because it was such an incredible loser in 2018 while other risk assets held up better.

HA what are thoughts on BTCs consolidation right now. Looks pretty bullish yes?

Bullish… but wouldn't be surprised if market makers bring price down to below $110s before next leg up.

Nice.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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HA what are thoughts on BTCs consolidation right now. Looks pretty bullish yes?

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I'm between two counts. The orange is ugly and avoided invalidating by a hair. The blue needed one more move down, but typical for BTC, it never came. That happens ALOT with BTC in bull markets. Upper target was placed a week ago.. probably a little too soon and needs to be moved a couple weeks to the right. Gun to my head I'd buy here, stop at $117k, looking to make $10-$15k out of it.

You've got BTC on log scale and QQQ on linear scale. It's not representative of what actually happened at all.

In March 2020 bitcoin lost more than half its value in 2 days. NASDAQ fell ~30% over the course of a month. But the way you've got that chart set up it makes the NASDAQ dip look much worse than Bitcoin's.

I understand you manipulated it to try to prove the two assets are becoming more correlated, unfortunately the unintended consequence is the chart indicates BTC is more stable/resilient in downturns. Especially recently, what happened there in spring of 2025?

What happens to the chart when the scales match for the last 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, or 10 years?

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You've got BTC on log scale and QQQ on linear scale. It's not representative of what actually happened at all.

In March 2020 bitcoin lost more than half its value in 2 days. NASDAQ fell ~30% over the course of a month. But the way you've got that chart set up it makes the NASDAQ dip look much worse than Bitcoin's.

I understand you manipulated it to try to prove the two assets are becoming more correlated, unfortunately the unintended consequence is the chart indicates BTC is more stable/resilient in downturns. Especially recently, what happened there in spring of 2025?

What happens to the chart when the scales match for the last 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, or 10 years?

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No, I do not have them on separate scales.

I didn't manipulate anything. I have both charts activated in log. BTC on the left. NDX on the right.

Here's since 2021.



Log scale doesn't care how much $$$ something moves. It cares about the relationships between the moves as it measures %. That's why they line up when on different scales. Because they are being fueled in the same manner while moving on their own price scales.

I've never tried to make the case BTC hasn't outgained everything. My case is that BTC is dependent on the same forces for its upward thrusts and downward corrections as all other risk assets. It's not a store of value, will not be safe in a liquidity event or money supply contraction, and will actually outperform to the downside. Sometimes BTC sells off slightly before other risk assets (2021, 2018). Likely because big players use BTC gains as a liquidity source to backstop other risk assets.

I find it bullish that 80,000 coins were sold on the market and we had a small flash dip to 114k-ish. buyers stepped in quickly and brought it right back up to consolidation levels. I think without the institutional adoption (ala 2021) that would have caused a much deeper and longer correction.

I personally hope this consolidation lasts for at least a few more weeks because that makes me more bullish.

TxAG#2011 said:

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Thunderstruck xx said:

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Even if BTC dies, the network built by legit decentralized networks like Cardano will survive IMO. Cardano is the key to the next evolution of the internet. First there was Web 1.0, then Web 2.0 (the internet we know today), and Cardano will help bring us Web 3.0: A major jump in the internet which I think holds tremendous value.

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How the heck do you guys keep getting sucked into this crap? Literally every legitimate player in crypto thinks Cardano is a joke dude. Nobody uses it for anything and that evidence is on full display with its blockchain explorer.

Good grief dude just stop

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Don't get left behind by sleeping on Cardano. Ethereum has scalability and efficiency issues. It seems like they're always patching up something like they're trying to flex seal all the leaks. It doesn't give me a lot of investment confidence.

"Gas fees are the costs associated with executing transactions or smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain. These fees vary based on network congestion and the complexity of the transaction.

Gas fees in Ethereum present several challenges that impact both users and developers. Volatility is a major issue, as fees fluctuate dramatically based on network demand, making it difficult for users to predict costs accurately. This unpredictability often leads to overpayment, where users opt for conservative estimates to ensure their transactions go through, ultimately spending more than necessary.

On the other hand, underestimation risks can result in failed transactions if the estimated gas is too low, causing frustration and inefficiencies. Additionally, simulation issues arise because gas estimations tested in controlled environments do not always reflect real-world execution, leading to discrepancies and unexpected costs."

Ethereum developers:

fauxstradamus said:

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I find it bullish that 80,000 coins were sold on the market and we had a small flash dip to 114k-ish. buyers stepped in quickly and brought it right back up to consolidation levels. I think without the institutional adoption (ala 2021) that would have caused a much deeper and longer correction.

I personally hope this consolidation lasts for at least a few more weeks because that makes me more bullish.

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It is bullish short-term. Shows that there's enough demand to eat a ton of supply without much reaction.

On the other hand, long-term holders exiting in massive tranches into the hands of retail and companies like MSTR is eerily reminiscent of the general trend of long-term cycles, where smart money exits before a top and dumb money buys the last leg up only to hold a massive bag,

I feel strongly BTC is going higher. I also feel strongly that it's nearing the end of a run with a very significant bearish period to follow.

Do you have a call on BTC top this cycle?

Quote:

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I've never tried to make the case BTC hasn't outgained everything. My case is that BTC is dependent on the same forces for its upward thrusts and downward corrections as all other risk assets. It's not a store of value, will not be safe in a liquidity event or money supply contraction, and will actually outperform to the downside. Sometimes BTC sells off slightly before other risk assets (2021, 2018). Likely because big players use BTC gains as a liquidity source to backstop other risk assets.

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And my case is

A) Bitcoin outperforms when the money supply is expanding
B) Keynesian economists will forever expand the money supply on a long enough timeline because they have no other choice

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Quote:

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I've never tried to make the case BTC hasn't outgained everything. My case is that BTC is dependent on the same forces for its upward thrusts and downward corrections as all other risk assets. It's not a store of value, will not be safe in a liquidity event or money supply contraction, and will actually outperform to the downside. Sometimes BTC sells off slightly before other risk assets (2021, 2018). Likely because big players use BTC gains as a liquidity source to backstop other risk assets.

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And my case is

A) Bitcoin outperforms when the money supply is expanding
B) Keynesian economists will forever expand the money supply on a long enough timeline because they have no other choice

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A) For sure. But it's outperformance decreases as it gains adoption. Should it continue to gain widespread adoption, it is likely the performance will approach closer and closer to other risk assets. Likely still outperforming, but gone are the days of 1-2 year 10x moves.

B) I've explained this before. We are not at the point in the long-term debt cycle where the cost of servicing the debt outweighs the growth the debt adds to GDP. On top of that, we are having to continually offer more debt into the system for declining benefit. There comes a point in these cycles where more debt actually leads to negative growth. It as at that point that the debt becomes a noose instead of a stool. And regarding QE (money printing), all that does is make loans available to the system. With inflation already elevated and having prices significantly higher than what they were just a short time ago, it's unlikely that the economy will have demand for new loans. That means that the FED will have purchased assets in an attempt to fractionally reserve monetize them, pulling those assets out of circulation at a time when there's no demand. This worsens their balance sheet and likely fuels a move in the other direction.

jamey said:

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Do you have a call on BTC top this cycle?

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I have targets and am always clear that tops can extend beyond targets. The top is in when support breaks. Ultimate support is down in the $70k range, leaving a lot of room to fall before even knowing if the top is in.

Just realized who you used to be and it makes so much sense. You're persistent, I'll give you that much.

70K is about where my average cost is

Heineken-Ashi said:

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fauxstradamus said:

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I find it bullish that 80,000 coins were sold on the market and we had a small flash dip to 114k-ish. buyers stepped in quickly and brought it right back up to consolidation levels. I think without the institutional adoption (ala 2021) that would have caused a much deeper and longer correction.

I personally hope this consolidation lasts for at least a few more weeks because that makes me more bullish.

---

It is bullish short-term. Shows that there's enough demand to eat a ton of supply without much reaction.

On the other hand, long-term holders exiting in massive tranches into the hands of retail and companies like MSTR is eerily reminiscent of the general trend of long-term cycles, where smart money exits before a top and dumb money buys the last leg up only to hold a massive bag,

I feel strongly BTC is going higher. I also feel strongly that it's nearing the end of a run with a very significant bearish period to follow.

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I haven't seen any data to suggest there is a massive amount of retail piling in right now (aka "euphoria stage"). Despite the sheer numbers of treasury companies and the success of ETF's I personally still believe we are early in the adoption curve of this asset. What about when (you can say if I guess) major institutional wealth advisers and RIAs begin recommending and implementing even close to what Rick Edelman suggests at a 10-40% allocation. That's not even including if large pension funds or sovereigns start allocations. These type of allocations are looking at holding for the LONG term.

My point with this is to say if and when these happen we are continuing to raise the floor and decrease volatility (both to upside and downside)

I agree that a bear is coming next year but I don't see it being significant (70-80% drawdown). I expect more of a 20-40% drawdown. But I could also see us topping close to 200k before that happens

fauxstradamus said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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fauxstradamus said:

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I find it bullish that 80,000 coins were sold on the market and we had a small flash dip to 114k-ish. buyers stepped in quickly and brought it right back up to consolidation levels. I think without the institutional adoption (ala 2021) that would have caused a much deeper and longer correction.

I personally hope this consolidation lasts for at least a few more weeks because that makes me more bullish.

---

It is bullish short-term. Shows that there's enough demand to eat a ton of supply without much reaction.

On the other hand, long-term holders exiting in massive tranches into the hands of retail and companies like MSTR is eerily reminiscent of the general trend of long-term cycles, where smart money exits before a top and dumb money buys the last leg up only to hold a massive bag,

I feel strongly BTC is going higher. I also feel strongly that it's nearing the end of a run with a very significant bearish period to follow.

---

I haven't seen any data to suggest there is a massive amount of retail piling in right now (aka "euphoria stage"). Despite the sheer numbers of treasury companies and the success of ETF's I personally still believe we are early in the adoption curve of this asset. What about when (you can say if I guess) major institutional wealth advisers and RIAs begin recommending and implementing even close to what Rick Edelman suggests at a 10-40% allocation. That's not even including if large pension funds or sovereigns start allocations. These type of allocations are looking at holding for the LONG term.

My point with this is to say if and when these happen we are continuing to raise the floor and decrease volatility (both to upside and downside)

I agree that a bear is coming next year but I don't see it being significant (70-80% drawdown). I expect more of a 20-40% drawdown. But I could also see us topping close to 200k before that happens

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Anything is possible. I can't predict exactly how the future will play out. But calling this phase of the bull early is risky. In past BTC bulls, you didn't have ETF's. You had NFT's, BTC miners running to the moon. Those were proxies for BTC for money that didn't enter crypto exchanges. Notice how the miners are severely underperforming, NFT's are dead, and this time around, those proxies are MSTR and other "treasury" companies. Everyone is so sure the bull is going to rage higher, which is what gives me the most pause. ETF's have gobbled up a lot of BTC demand, and MSTR itself has gobbled more than NFT's and miners combined from past cycles. And it's usually when the market is rowing in the same direction and the bears have thrown in the towels (Peter Schiff now turning bullish after YEARS of bashing) that the market turns.

I continue to be short-term bullish Bitcoin while mid-term cautious. Volatility season this year (Aug-Nov) will be interesting.

Can someone explain to a dummy how you "cash out" with crypto?

You sell your crypto on an exchange. Wire the money to your bank.

What's this mean for ETHA

NEW: U.S. SEC ACKNOWLEDGES BLACKROCK’S FILING TO ALLOW STAKING IN ITS SPOT $ETH ETF

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) July 29, 2025

What does the tweet mean? Guess it's just another step forward. Let's say it gets approved. Means etha will pay dividends.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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What does the tweet mean? Guess it's just another step forward. Let's say it gets approved. Means etha will pay dividends.

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Thats what Im wondering. Do we earn yield for holding ETHA?