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What are your top crypto holdings?
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Last: 17 hrs ago by tamu05ag
I have no idea why anyone would buy MSTR if you can buy btc or a btc etf.
Yukon Cornelius said:
I have no idea why anyone would buy MSTR if you can buy btc or a btc etf.
Because it consistently outperforms Bitcoin.
You think that trend will continue? It's far more risky this point then btc. The dilution will be insane.
p-townag said:Yukon Cornelius said:
I have no idea why anyone would buy MSTR if you can buy btc or a btc etf.
Because it consistently outperforms Bitcoin.
And because some shty IRAs (vanguard) wont let you buy btc or btc etf.
Yukon Cornelius said:
You think that trend will continue? It's far more risky this point then btc. The dilution will be insane.
I do. But I've spent hundreds of hours following it (every earnings call, every MSTR True North episode, X analysis, etc). He will continue to use a combination of "accretive dilution," preferred stock, convertible bonds and future tools to continuously accumulate more bitcoin per share. I do trust Saylor to continue to execute the strategy. Philosophically I still value my bitcoin more than MSTR, but I'm also confident that my MSTR will outperform my Bitcoin. There's a need for both.
Also, the term "accretive dilution" really needs to be understood. He will continue to dilute number of shares, but he will gain more Bitcoin proportionately to the dilution (more Bitcoin per share with every round of dilution). It's sacrificing short term gains for long term gains. Saylor has made it clear that he values the long term holders of MSTR more than the short term traders of MSTR. The accretive dilution is a manifestation of this.
It's just debt to buy btc. Nav will likely work its way back down. Especially as more btc products become available over time. If buyers dry up when all that convertible bonds start coming due it could get nasty.
I'm also fairly sure they have a massive tax bill due this year or Q1 next year as part of the stop inflation act during Biden's tenure.
I'm also fairly sure they have a massive tax bill due this year or Q1 next year as part of the stop inflation act during Biden's tenure.
@NFLPlayerProps said:
Expected due to price of BTC at the snapshot and new FASB rules, that's why it's holding steady aftermarket. The earnings call was another banger, highly recommend watching for folks who don't yet understand what's going on.
what was on the slide for "What does MSTR contribute to society?"
Yukon Cornelius said:
It's just debt to buy btc. Nav will likely work its way back down. Especially as more btc products become available over time. If buyers dry up when all that convertible bonds start coming due it could get nasty.
I'm also fairly sure they have a massive tax bill due this year or Q1 next year as part of the stop inflation act during Biden's tenure.
"It's just debt to buy BTC." That is a massive oversimplification. The convertible bonds are unsecured/unencumbered. The only way that debt threatens the company is if bitcoin trades at a low level for a very, very long time. For the debt they have currently, bitcoin would have to trade around $14,000 for a very long period of time to have any material danger to the company. Also, the likelihood that that happens is very low. The likelihood that MSTR trades below an MNAV of one for a long period of time is also extremely low. Investors know that he is able to use leverage to buy more bitcoin in the future, and the value of that bitcoin will continue to grow. Consider the thought experiment of when bitcoin is trading at a level where MSTR owns $1 trillion of bitcoin. How do you value an entity or company that has $1 trillion of hard capital that they can do anything they want with?
Anyway, I would recommend doing some research into this. Just like people don't really understand bitcoin fully, many very smart people don't really understand what MSTR is doing. It is quite clear to many of us who invest in MSTR, that Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world quite soon. You definitely don't have to take my word for it, however, I will continue to enjoy being an MSTR shareholder.
EliteZags said:@NFLPlayerProps said:
Expected due to price of BTC at the snapshot and new FASB rules, that's why it's holding steady aftermarket. The earnings call was another banger, highly recommend watching for folks who don't yet understand what's going on.
what was on the slide for "What does MSTR contribute to society?"
The contribution to society is strengthening the best monetary protocol in the history of humanity (bitcoin), and providing its shareholders an incredible amount of ever expanding wealth.
Did you read the bullets?EliteZags said:@NFLPlayerProps said:
Expected due to price of BTC at the snapshot and new FASB rules, that's why it's holding steady aftermarket. The earnings call was another banger, highly recommend watching for folks who don't yet understand what's going on.
what was on the slide for "What does MSTR contribute to society?"
Going to recommend one more time that those of you who are bewildered just watch the earnings call. They are very transparent about what they're doing, how they're doing it, and why. As they have been for years now.
Aren't you curious about why MSTR is outperforming BTC, GLD, QQQ, SPY, NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META etc on basically any timeframe you select since they started buying BTC almost 5 years ago? If I was missing out on that, I would invest some time into due diligence. What does the market know that you don't?
We will see. What happens when billions dollars worth of bonds come due? And they convert to shares and they get dumped?
Saylor will either go down as the greatest investor of all time or the greatest degenerate of all time.
He could be providing the greatest exit liquidity of all time.
He doesn't have the cash to pay his tax bill either. That will be interesting to see how it's managed.
Saylor will either go down as the greatest investor of all time or the greatest degenerate of all time.
He could be providing the greatest exit liquidity of all time.
He doesn't have the cash to pay his tax bill either. That will be interesting to see how it's managed.
99.9% BTC
A lot of those first points will become obsolete. Especially when banks start offering custodial services. Why pay a 2x premium when bny Mellon will do it for 1%
Yukon Cornelius said:
We will see. What happens when billions dollars worth of bonds come due? And they convert to shares and they get dumped?
Saylor will either go down as the greatest investor of all time or the greatest degenerate of all time.
He could be providing the greatest exit liquidity of all time.
He doesn't have the cash to pay his tax bill either. That will be interesting to see how it's managed.
I can't really disagree with any of this. I agree that he'll be the greatest ever or go down in flames. I've listened and read enough to believe the former, but time will tell. I'll humbly eat crow if I'm wrong, but in the meantime, I'll continue to feel thankful and amazed to be a part of this. I really believe it's an economic restructuring going on before our very eyes.
Is the last bullet the headline for what they are trying to do? Basically a BTC bond or bond ladder type instrument that spins off income?
When it was first mentioned Saylor said price of btc will appreciate higher than 7% a year. So they issue a bond. Buy btc. Then sell it over time to pay the 7%.
I have no idea why someone would do that instead of just buying btc and selling 7% themselves. Plus it would cap gains vs income.
This where I feel like Saylor is misleading people etc and he's just leveraging up and up and up.
I have no idea why someone would do that instead of just buying btc and selling 7% themselves. Plus it would cap gains vs income.
This where I feel like Saylor is misleading people etc and he's just leveraging up and up and up.
Yeah, I'm confused what they are trying to do here then. I buy and own my own bitcoin and see no reason to inject a middle man into the mix.
So, if I buy one share of MSTR then what does that do for me other than potentially get me a gain in USD if I later sell the share? Which could be perfectly great but I don't own BTC to make USD.
So, if I buy one share of MSTR then what does that do for me other than potentially get me a gain in USD if I later sell the share? Which could be perfectly great but I don't own BTC to make USD.
If only there was some very easy way for you guys to get 100% of your questions answered. Jesus
I think the fixed income security is another gimmick product they are offering to sell to maybe pension funds or something. But it's more indebted bitcoin with scheduled payouts regardless the price action. So the essentially you have btc exposure but limited to 7% on the upside.
Maybe it fits certain portfolios idk. Seems just like another opportunity to leverage up for Saylor.
Maybe it fits certain portfolios idk. Seems just like another opportunity to leverage up for Saylor.
@NFLPlayerProps said:
If only there was some very easy way for you guys to get 100% of your questions answered. Jesus
Do you realize you are on a Business & Investing discussion forum which is the whole point of these types of questions? Jesus.
I'm at least engaging and asking legitimate questions and not outright ruling it out. I'm a proponent of BTC so I do have an open mind.
Are you buying MSTR right now?
In the past two months I have added MSTR and started positions in STRK, MSTY, and MSTX.
You're right, I apologize. MSTR offers four different financial instruments now, each with different levels of upside exposure vs. fixed income. It's just too complex to type out. I really think you'd learn a lot from the earnings call. Or the True North recap on youtube if you're looking for a quicker summary (45 min vs 2 hours for the call).YouBet said:@NFLPlayerProps said:
If only there was some very easy way for you guys to get 100% of your questions answered. Jesus
Do you realize you are on a Business & Investing discussion forum which is the whole point of these types of questions? Jesus.
I'm at least engaging and asking legitimate questions and not outright ruling it out. I'm a proponent of BTC so I do have an open mind.
I'm guessing that like me and every other BTC investor I know, you can remember a time when you just dismissed it and wish you could get that time back. MSTR is something worth learning about right now. IMO
The ratio charts NFL posted speak for themselves.
99.6% BTC
99.6% BTC
Seems like a good trade opportunity. Btc into alts.
Yukon Cornelius said:
Seems like a good trade opportunity. Btc into alts.
When the ratio charts show some relative strength or a break in the long term trend then my position will change, but Right now the charts don't show it. Look at the ETH/BTC chart and draw a simple straight line from some of the recent peaks (it will be downward sloping). Until that ratio breaks through that downward sloping trend line, and it is only getting worse, I see no reason to shift allocation.
Curious if think the ration is showing strength or waiting is still prudent?
The volume on eth is insane at the moment is all I know.
The volume on eth is insane at the moment is all I know.
Alot of things could happen.Thunderstruck xx said:Monywolf said:Owing MSTR and selling covered calls has worked out very well. It's not right for everyone.Thunderstruck xx said:
What's the deal with MSTR?
" Instead of investing in Bitcoin via a stock that's trading at an inflated level of 3 times its net asset value -- which is what you'd be doing if you bought MicroStrategy -- take direct exposure to the cryptocurrency instead. Directly owning Bitcoin means your returns will have a one-to-one correlation with the crypto. A bet on MicroStrategy now is a bet on Saylor managing these Bitcoin assets for you while he's diluting shareholders and taking on mountains of debt. That proposition is a lot more risky."
This thread is about holding crypto, not active trading. MSTR looks good now, but it could all come crashing down if Michael Saylor mismanages all those insane loans he's taking out to buy bitcoin.
IBIT
MSTY
FBTC
MSTY
FBTC
Yukon Cornelius said:
Curious if think the ration is showing strength or waiting is still prudent?
The volume on eth is insane at the moment is all I know.
My advice below is based on longer term allocation decisions. Full disclosure I own some ETH, but as my prior posts suggest my ETH holding pales in comparison to BTC.
I can't post images on here but will share the following.
Go to stock charts.com and type in:
$BTCUSD:$ETHUSD
Set the chart to 5 years, WEEKLY, solid line(not candles). This is giving you a long term view on over/under performance of these holdings relative to each other.
What do we see? We continue to have upward sloping 20/50/200 week moving averages all favoring BTC right now. The ratio hasn't even come back to the 20wk yet. I'd wait for further deterioration before making any major allocation shifts away from BTC.. Contrast what you are seeing in the chart and moving averages now vs 2020/2021 when ETH was outperforming. Be patient and let the chart dictate your moves, not what you are hoping will unfold.
Edit…some of the prior peaks were at a ratio of 38 and 34 back in '20/21. I think that would be a region to watch close.
MSTR earnings this Thursday (7/31). Here's what the brilliant analysts who are definitely paying attention to the new FASB accounting rules are forecasting for EPS:
I would wager 1 BTC that they report Q2 EPS north of $30. Wall Street is completely oblivious to what this company is building. Just like they were to BTC for years and years.
I would wager 1 BTC that they report Q2 EPS north of $30. Wall Street is completely oblivious to what this company is building. Just like they were to BTC for years and years.
Looks like Ed Engel is paying attention. And that's quite a number.
I hope so I am bagholding some MSTR calls.
Not sure it will matter much in the short-term, would not be surprised if the market doesn't really react (like with the big negative earnings in Q1) or it could even be a sell the news event temporarily.
But if the number is what I think it will be and they qualify for S&P 500 inclusion as a result it will start to raise awareness, and maybe for some it will spark enough intellectual curiosity to really try to understand it.
But if the number is what I think it will be and they qualify for S&P 500 inclusion as a result it will start to raise awareness, and maybe for some it will spark enough intellectual curiosity to really try to understand it.
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