Bayou City said:
Vacasa and countless others said the same thing. Sorry but if the market thought they were all blue skies and rainbows, they wouldn't be trading down 95%+ on a split Adjusted basis w a **** mltiple. Wall St likes to make money you know. They typicslly frown on capital destruction and this seems to be a Classic case.
I agree it was. But like I noted. The debt is gone. Capital restructured. Growth occurring and cashflow positive. No debt and cashflow increased.
I get looking in the mirror looks ugly. But looking forward shows positive momentum.
This change mostly occurred last yr. So it is fresh. I took advantage. Bought 4,000 shares Dec and made $10k selling in Feb as tariff news was starting to make headway. It moved price back down. So I began accumulating again in April and early June to tune of 6,000 shares. It popped into the 8's and I sold 1,000 shares, and I still own 5k at 6.33 while shares at 8.84 today or up 40%.
I am retired an did so 8 yrs ago at 54. I have my passive income at about $130k as I sit on probably too much cash but it is earning 4.1% (about), and is very liquid. Not a high risk or speculative guy per se.
I do need to see a few more qtrs if execution to determine a FV, but the change is real. It is a much stronger company now and if you read the entirety of my prior long reply, I think you can see that. Does it still have to execute. Hell ya. Q4 was a record, Q1 was poor but for the aforementioned reasons. Backlog over $30M. So Q2 is set up to be good. This will be the 3rd "report card" if you will since the changes. It should reinforce one way or the other. Will they execute or have excuse again.
But their balance sheet is far from any resemblance of a bankrupt company. Regarding your example, I doubt they were able to make the transitions MIND did as there were some things unique to MIND in their capital structure.
Again I never recommended this for anyone, I like it in the $6's and sell near $10, unless the report cards show improvement that mgmt is discussing. But they have to show me. Not a high conviction, but is currently a positive story despite what the years before 2024 say.
I am up $12.5k. Have realized about $12k profit this yr and if I sold the remaining shares it would be about $25k. This is from doing DD on the change. Could it revert back, maybe but not likely unless there is fraud involved, which I do t believe whatsoever.
For me I have moved into small caps in a larger way as I have increased my DD and found a couple people who successfully specialize in that arena for over 30 yrs
Winning trades: TSSI $2.22 to $18 add old along way but made $200k
ITMSF still own all 60,000 shares and am up 127% or $57k
GKPRF bought near .30 and sold at .62 recently. Only 18,000 shares. It is gaining traction and could go to over $1 next yr. May enter if it dips
DRSHF own 16,330 at .80. Just hit $1.74 today. Owned earlier in yr 20,000 shares at .58 and sold at 705 upon tariff news etc where I sold some winners for capital preservation as I am retired.
I do have a spec name CAPR. I expect approval in next couple months. Do some DD. It is just over $10. Own 4,000 shares.
SNES is another dealing with rodent (rats) and stops their fertility. Have had successful launches and could be at inflection point. Is small company though but has some patent protection. It popped like 28% today. I expect volatility. Not yet profitable. But TAM is quite large.
Point at the end is that I am not a novice just throwing out a name to invest in. In fact I was asking if anyone knew of it since it was in the Woodlands although manufacturing is in Singapore/Malaysia. I do own large caps for growth and dividends such as ABBV, PRU, own C from mid $50, WFC from $28 etc. Dold my SPG above $180.
Enough diarrhea of the keyboard. You don't have to like this one and I didn't present it as an idea to get into now, but it has been rewarding to me by getting in at that right price and I firmly believe that it has been derisked.
Gig'em