I've heard rumblings from buddies in various industries that business is SLOW slow. Not "we had a down month" but "this is the worst month since Covid" slow.

Anecdotally my US business unit (manufacturer of drilling equipment for mining, water-well, o&g) had its slowest month in 4 years, it was just offset by a boom internationally and in construction.

This isn't just industry either, a buddy who brokers aircraft's said he didn't book a deal all June, and that's never happened to him outside of '22. Same with a buddy who is the GM of a car dealership and a friend who is a Regional Manager for a supermarket chain. They all said it's super-slow, and their finger is hovering over the "layoff" button.

Anyone else seeing this?

electrical construction is full blast! nothing stopping that for a long time. Commercial buildings are down, but schools, hospitals, and data centers, you can't keep up.

Makes sense overall. Wages are not keeping up with inflation. People have little to no disposable income these days.

My wife and I earn somewhere in the top 3% of the income range in the US, and it seems like there's less "play money" each month after contributing to our 401k's and other investments.

Thunderstruck xx said:

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Makes sense overall. Wages are not keeping up with inflation. People have little to no disposable income these days.

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Not sure I agree with that. Travel is breaking records this year. Gas, airfare, hotels and other things are cheaper. People feel like they have more discretionary income to spend on vacations, and vacation travel is the first thing people cut from their discretionary income.

I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

Still spending plenty. No project delays yet.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

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This. It's an economy by the wealthy for the wealthy. Such is the norm during fiscal dominance. The bottom of non-government benny people have been in recession for years. The lower middle class keeps paying more and more eating more and more of their static wage. Middle class is starting to feel the pinch.

In a healthy economy, people buy homes. 60% of homes over the last year were bought by people 60 and older from sellers 60 and older. And right now, nobody is buying homes. It's the worst housing market in 20 years. Retail is stairstepping down.

We are inching closer and closer to calamity. And what's our solution? Drop rates and devalue the dollar so the ones struggling will struggle more and the wealthy can get some relief. Idiocy.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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No, it's not.

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It'd be nice if you took the time to elaborate, Milkshake. What do you see that we may be missing? Some of the statements in this thread are anecdotal; such as mine. Add some big picture perspective, if you don't mind.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

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This. It's an economy by the wealthy for the wealthy. Such is the norm during fiscal dominance. The bottom of non-government benny people have been in recession for years. The lower middle class keeps paying more and more eating more and more of their static wage. Middle class is starting to feel the pinch.

In a healthy economy, people buy homes. 60% of homes over the last year were bought by people 60 and older from sellers 60 and older. And right now, nobody is buying homes. It's the worst housing market in 20 years. Retail is stairstepping down.

We are inching closer and closer to calamity. And what's our solution? Drop rates and devalue the dollar so the ones struggling will struggle more and the wealthy can get some relief. Idiocy.

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It seems pretty clear to me that the failure of austerity in the form of DOGE in combination with the BBB that the money printer is going to go full blast for the foreseeable future. They are going to try to grow out of this mess. The dollar is the best house in a bad neighborhood but the fact remains that printing more money to make the debt more manageable is the only tool in the toolbox. I agree with Paul Tudor Jones that in an era of fiscal dominance like we have at present it is best to be in assets that cannot be printed out of thin air. These are just my opinions. I could be wrong.

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You're not wrong. I've been saying that since the bond market called Trump's bluff and money flocked OUT of bonds instead of into them when the market dipped in April. That was the exact point Trump pivoted from "we're going to cut spending and reduce the debt" to "the debt doesn't matter because we're going to grow out of it".

But understand what they are wanting to do. For it to be effective, they are pretty much creating the conditions for 2008. And you better hope there is demand for loans when they do it. Because if not, the market doesn't find a bottom like it did then.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

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This. It's an economy by the wealthy for the wealthy. Such is the norm during fiscal dominance. The bottom of non-government benny people have been in recession for years. The lower middle class keeps paying more and more eating more and more of their static wage. Middle class is starting to feel the pinch.

In a healthy economy, people buy homes. 60% of homes over the last year were bought by people 60 and older from sellers 60 and older. And right now, nobody is buying homes. It's the worst housing market in 20 years. Retail is stairstepping down.

We are inching closer and closer to calamity. And what's our solution? Drop rates and devalue the dollar so the ones struggling will struggle more and the wealthy can get some relief. Idiocy.

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Let's do the reverse. How has the housing market been the past few years? Experiencing some of their best years ever. I think the market got front loaded and is trying to get back to a stead state. COVID economics caused a huge defect in what is "normal".

reineraggie09 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

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This. It's an economy by the wealthy for the wealthy. Such is the norm during fiscal dominance. The bottom of non-government benny people have been in recession for years. The lower middle class keeps paying more and more eating more and more of their static wage. Middle class is starting to feel the pinch.

In a healthy economy, people buy homes. 60% of homes over the last year were bought by people 60 and older from sellers 60 and older. And right now, nobody is buying homes. It's the worst housing market in 20 years. Retail is stairstepping down.

We are inching closer and closer to calamity. And what's our solution? Drop rates and devalue the dollar so the ones struggling will struggle more and the wealthy can get some relief. Idiocy.

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Let's do the reverse. How has the housing market been the past few years? Experiencing some of their best years ever. I think the market got front loaded and is trying to get back to a stead state. COVID economics caused a huge defect in what is "normal".

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Housing is at its most unaffordable in 35 years, and rates have been mostly flat for going on 2 years, while price has increased at a slower and slower pace. Now you have inventory on the market not seen in a decade and no buyers. As I've said many times between here and politics board, either 30 year mortgage rates have to drop under 4% with no increase in pricing, wages have to grow about 20%, or prices have to come down another 30%. Anything else, and this housing market stagnates until it inevitably crashes.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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I think what we are seeing is analogous to the so-called K shaped recovery. I saw somewhere online that higher income Americans are traveling to Europe more than they have been in a long time. at the same time, food banks are experiencing higher demand than they have in a long time. If you are in the bottom 50% of earners and do not have assets, you're getting killed financially.

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This.

I think it was already starting to happen in 2019, but COVID kicked it into high gear. A large number of people became very, very wealthy over the last 5 years. Meme stocks, crypto, side hustles that turned into legit revenue. When everyone got sent to work from home you had a large percentage of people who took it as a mini-vacation and awaited for their company to figure it out, but also a percentage of people who immediately started trying out investment and business ideas that they previously never had time for but suddenly did with COVID and their company still providing a safety net -- but also now providing enough time and freedom via work-from-home to pursue it. The kid who was entry level at the big corporate job was able to keep that job and clear $50k flipping PS5's, which he then threw into his new Robinhood account on a meme stock and made more in a year than many do in 10.

A correction will happen, but over the last 10-12 years if you've been working your (good) corporate job and taking your x% raises and promotions - you've actually been falling behind, getting significantly outpaced.

We're definitely starting to see a pullback the last few months, but there's simply no way to predict if this time we're finally going to be made to feel it, or if we're just going to kick the fiscal can down the road for another few years.

Eventually things will shift to those who are risk averse being rewarded -- but over the last decade or so it has not been near as lucrative as the profits the "YOLO" crowd has generated.

I manage coal power plants and we are at running at 98%+ capacity 24/7 with the normal demand and new data centers we are tied to. Salesmen call me hourly trying to get business as it seems they are super slow. I probably get 20 LinkedIn messages of salesmen trying to get an OA/MSA with us. It is nuts how many people reach out to us daily for business. Furthermore, we are trying to work with our state PUC to extend the life of the coal plants since there wont be enough generation for the forecasted demand in 2028/2029. No one saw this coming (me being facetious).

Housing in my area is at a standstill. Most homes have been on the market 90+ days and have dropped at least 10-15% in price cuts over that time. I picked up a rental very cheap. Asking was $300K and I offered $225K and she accepted without a flinch. Got me a great tenant, so it worked out very well for me at least.

My gf and I travel a lot more as of late, as we have found insane deals on flights and hotels the last 2 years. We are going back to our favorite island, Koh Samui, in August for 2.5 weeks. Got our normal villa for less than $150 for 12 nights, usually around $300/nt. Also got our flight from HDN to BKK for $695, that is early 2000s kind of pricing. Those I know that are around our income level are definitely travelling more.

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A correction will happen, but over the last 10-12 years if you've been working your (good) corporate job and taking your x% raises and promotions - you've actually been falling behind, getting significantly outpaced.

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Amen to this. My salary basically flat lined the last 3 years and I made the case recently and was bumped 22%. However, I make about half my real job salary in my side hustles that has fast paced early retirement for me.

Proposition Joe said:

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Hoyt Ag said:

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Quote:

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A correction will happen, but over the last 10-12 years if you've been working your (good) corporate job and taking your x% raises and promotions - you've actually been falling behind, getting significantly outpaced.

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Amen to this. My salary basically flat lined the last 3 years and I made the case recently and was bumped 22%. However, I make about half my real job salary in my side hustles that has fast paced early retirement for me.

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You hear it in the stock thread as well people routinely saying certain days they make more than 6 months salary.

Now of course that can fluctuate and there's downside risk - but there's just been so many new avenues to 3x/4x/5x your money that it's easy to see how the aforementioned K shape has taken shape.

I think datacenters seem to definitely be one area that aren't being impacted as much. My SO's biz deals heavily with them and they are inundated with work.

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You have been spending too much time on WSB.

Funny how the stock thread is always bonkers on up days but quiet on down days.

There is no easy way to 3x/4x/5x your money. It is just gambling.

Heine has been talking crash since I started paying attention to the handle. You were looking for pre-09 pricing in the S&P, something around 1,500 during the tarriff event and thought there was no liquidity to bounce. Now here we are with a 1 month 30% rip to ATHs. The play was and is and will remain to buy dips.

All of these blackswan shoppers have and will continue to be wrong. The doomsdayers have been abound since pre-financial crisis and have only increased since then. They've been hawking about the inevitability of the US market's downfall for almost 2 decades.

Each time the market dips, ITS THE BIG ONE, only to have it rip off the drawdown to new highs. Fighting this is a fools errand - fighting the fed, treasury, elite wealth, etc. etc. If it ever breaks and USD gets replaced, there will be far more to worry about than your trading account. For most, by the time you get out of USD, equities, bonds into something else, it will be too late - and if you did get out in time, where are you going? The global financial bedrock is USD and US bonds. The US has unparalleled leverage and status.

There are no signs of this in the near future anyways. Govt spending is continuing, rates are about to drop, new industries are emerging, regulations retreating, global alignment is adjusting around paying the US for protection and trade, unemployment is great, IMO M2 is gonna move back up, and you have retail and total money market funds that have absolutely ripped to ATHs - so there is a ****load of money still on the sidelines that will move into the market as rates come down and market rips, then youve got the prospect of housing taking off again with lower rates as well, M&A in private markets picking up.

More likely a massive destabilizing war, other unknown event, or population decline and workforce participation decline will have a big impact before the global financial system built on USD blows up. I doubt anyone is betting on whats never happened before happening, its just fear porn.

Go to any of the top closed models and have it write you an extensive prompt to provide a deep research comprehensive analysis of the US economy's trajectory noting factors like global reserve currency, macroeconomic indicators, current policy developments, tech trends, geopolitical factors, fiscal policy and debt, monetary policy, M2, growth trends, etc etc.

^ Youll find they are all going to come back a ton of great info that condenses into 75-85% probability of ether continued growth at current rates or a boom, and around 15%-25% probability of stagflation or a stop-go cycle that would require misalignment between fed and treasuring and other factors.