I think eth will flip btc. Maybe not until next cycle but I believe the probability of it happening is great. Once other CEOs see how much revenue BMNR and SBET report from the staking yield on eth it'll be game on.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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I think eth will flip btc. Maybe not until next cycle but I believe the probability of it happening is great. Once other CEOs see how much revenue BMNR and SBET report from the staking yield on eth it'll be game on.

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By flip are you saying replace?

No, flip in market cap leader. So Eth will become number one and btc two.

Loooooong way to go for that.

It's a 5x on eth and btc remaining stagnant. But I agree. It'll take time. But if company A holding btc showing zero revenue from it but it's an asset on their books. Vs Company B showing 3% revenue from the assets on the books. Company B is going to have the advantage on a longer timeline.

I always come back to the most basic human psychology. At the end of the day ALL these companies have a CEO sitting there evaluating things. His/her bonus is metric dependent. More revenue more bonus. Which ceo is getting a bonus by purely increase assets on the books?

I disagree. You are much more knowledgeable than I am
About trading, etc. but I think you overestimate how many people are trading bitcoins and underestimate how many people are holding. The amount holding is much higher than the last cycle, just from ETFs and 401ks alone. And bc it's finite, even if more people are trading it now, that's still a net increase in demand and decrease in supply. Not to mention the companies who are buying and holding.

People can sell just as fast as they can buy. All those etf inflows can be reversed in a week.

Ok I get what yall are saying. You are saying that the more people who get in that are not btc believers, the quicker they sell in a bear market? And so it could plunge? Is that the simplified version?

I agre with that. But I still think the demand will be higher as it goes down (compare to past bear cycles), and then demand will be greater when it gets to the bottom. Which means it will co time to increase long term given the finite supply. Plus, all the countries getting in (which weent in last time).

To be clear, I think there will be a Bear cycle again. Like always. But I'll be much higher in 5-10 years than it is now.

In my meager portfolio, I'm 8% crypto with no BTC since I think it is digital wampum for cartels and dark web (sorta how I see XRP). #crytponoob

I also have SBET moneys and about to reenter DFDV. I may try FBTC but more leaning towards physical silver ETFs to balance focus on crypto, crypto stocks and tech stocks.

Again, very much a noob.

Right now I think some people are selling some bitcoin and buying ETH because it's hot


Bitcoin currently down 1%
Ethereum currently tly up 3.5%

Heck, I may do a little of this tomorrow with the small % of btc i play with

For some reason Trump is pushing bitcoin right now on truth social, posting an old explanation


The recent laws that were passed are more for stablecoins than bitcoin

Mind sharing? I don't have an act

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Mind sharing? I don't have an act

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Its on X, I'll see of it can find it again but I wont know where it came from or what it's called

You can probably find that title on YouTube

“Greatest Bitcoin explanation of all time” pic.twitter.com/uMwwl0LU5i

— Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) July 20, 2025

No worries. Don't waste your time It'll probably make the rounds eventually

Here it is

jamey said:

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Right now I think some people are selling some bitcoin and buying ETH because it's hot


Bitcoin currently down 1%
Ethereum currently tly up 3.5%

Heck, I may do a little of this tomorrow with the small % of btc i play with

For some reason Trump is pushing bitcoin right now on truth social, posting an old explanation


The recent laws that were passed are more for stablecoins than bitcoin

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Stablecoins will operate on following blockchains:

Ether - already well known
Cardano - reading the tea leaves
Sei - USDC huge amount operates on Sei

Disclaimer: crypto novice but doing A LOT of research

mavsfan4ever said:

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Ok I get what yall are saying. You are saying that the more people who get in that are not btc believers, the quicker they sell in a bear market? And so it could plunge? Is that the simplified version?

I agre with that. But I still think the demand will be higher as it goes down (compare to past bear cycles), and then demand will be greater when it gets to the bottom. Which means it will co time to increase long term given the finite supply. Plus, all the countries getting in (which weent in last time).

To be clear, I think there will be a Bear cycle again. Like always. But I'll be much higher in 5-10 years than it is now.

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I don't think anyone knows. All I know is that BTC has its own history of semi-predictable patterns to buck, as well as centuries of history of cycles for anything else that has ever been tradeable. Is this one different? It's setup to try to be. Will human sentiment, herding, greed, and bias affect it? Undoubtedly. So until it manages to buck some trends, I maintain the core position and adhere to risk management with the rest in times like this.

Trumps bull posting. Nice

But you say "is this one different" like it needs to be different in order to capitalize long term. I hope it's not different from btc tends. That will be great if it's not different. If it's different that means everyone holding btc wins even more.

Everyone holding btc long term knows there will be a bear cycle. That isn't news. That's why I'm confused as to what point you are trying to make. Are you predicting a bear cycle? No ***** Everyone knows that.

It seems like you are just predicting that it may go up or down. again, everyone knows that. But long term, it's going up imo.

Pleas don't take this as argumentative. I genuinely want to hear your take. And I agree no one knows what's going to happen. It's a risky asset.

ETA/ I guess you are taking about history of other assets.

mavsfan4ever said:

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But you say "is this one different" like it needs to be different in order to capitalize long term. I hope it's not different from btc tends. That will be great if it's not different. If it's different that means everyone holding btc wins even more.

Everyone holding btc long term knows there will be a bear cycle. That isn't news. That's why I'm confused as to what point you are trying to make. Are you predicting a bear cycle? No ***** Everyone knows that.

It seems like you are just predicting that it may go up or down. again, everyone knows that. But long term, it's going up imo.

Pleas don't take this as argumentative. I genuinely want to hear your take. And I agree no one knows what's going to happen. It's a risky asset.

ETA/ I guess you are taking about history of other assets.

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We hope that. We don't KNOW that. And my greater point is Bitcoin has only ever existed within a parabolic bull market fueled by massive devaluation of the dollar. If we were to enter into a period of systematic deleveraging, which we have before, and will again, it is UNKNOWN how BTC will fare, as its never managed to store wealth in times of contracting liquidity. In fact, it has outperformed to the downside merely within bull market dips. Failing to store wealth in those times is not unique to BTC, please dont assume that's what I'm saying. In those times, gold and silver get crushed. Why? Because everything is valued in DOLLARS. When the dollar gains value, not against a basket of currencies but by gaining purchasing power (yes, that hasn't happened but in very short spurts in the last 100 years), everything valued in dollars loses value. When the dollar loses value, everything valued in dollars rises. I LOVE what BTC was created for. I want it to work. But for it to truly work and not just be the best risk asset, everything about our entire economic system has to be flipped upside down. And when a world changing event like that happens, it's likely that the first step is depression.

Nothing earthshatterujg here but more good explanations on bitcoin here.

But his talk is on topic. He says people should hold bitcoin and use a 80/20 or 90/10 equities to bonds. He says 60/40 is dead, bonds aren't what they use to be and goes into history a little

Of the equities be includes bitcoin these bitcoin allocations

10% bitcoin conservative
25% bitcoin moderate
40% bitcoin aggressive

This guy owns a brokerage and hes suggesting


His bitcoin to 500K is conservative to many estimates, hes talking in 2030

What does the below mean? No one thinks btc is going to replace the dollar. It is an investment asset. And if it's the best risk asset, then it will moon. Im just not sure you understand how btc can increase in the next 20 years. And im just playing devil's advocate, not saying I'm definitely right.

"But for it to truly work and not just be the best risk asset, everything about our entire economic system has to be flipped upside down"

Cycles...

It will be interesting to see how BTC and other cryptos hold up in a hard bear market. I've got my eyes on Japan right now. Lot's of political and economic strain going on over there which could disrupt the Yen carry trade. That trade is global.

She’s beautiful. 🦢 https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys

— The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 19, 2025

"On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."

"Nobody knows what the next big thing is until it's obvious."


Two quotes I always think of when people try and frame long-term markets as predictable in any way.

YouBet said:

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The point of bitcoin is to not just be an investment asset. It's an investment asset now because that's where it is in its own natural evolutionary timeline.

The question is if it can ever actually fulfill its original vision.

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Agreed. I kind of went sour on BTC and crypto in general when Blackrock got involved. Many people in crypto said this was a good thing; that it would promote crypto adoption and increase market cap. My thoughts were on the downside, which was that it would remain a volatile asset that really never sees adoption as a stable currency...more the intended purpose of BTC. I don't know...lot's of arguments for and against.

Yukon Cornelius said:

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Trumps bull posting. Nice

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And now we know why. He bought 2 Billion worth

BREAKING: Trump Media, $DJT, announces it has acquired $2 billion worth of Bitcoin.

The stock is up over +6% on the news. pic.twitter.com/U5xJbVqfBR

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 21, 2025

Warren Buffet says everyone needs to read chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. I'll check to make sure that's exact chapter and book but it is great. I'll reread tonight and edit post if material is different.

Mainly about company value, market swings and valued companies with quality products making it thru bear cycles and/or recessions and worse.

Best thought in chapter is that investors would be better served if they didn't know the price of the stock and Instead did in depth analysis with tracking of the company

Very nice

I'm at 5% if I combine MARA and IBIT holdings, and even that has kinda freaked my advisor out.

MaroonStain said:

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Warren Buffet says everyone needs to read chapter 8 of The Intelligent Investor. I'll check to make sure that's exact chapter and book but it is great. I'll reread tonight and edit post if material is different.

Mainly about company value, market swings and valued companies with quality products making it thru bear cycles and/or recessions and worse.

Best thought in chapter is that investors would be better served if they didn't know the price of the stock and Instead did in depth analysis with tracking of the company

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That can help you long-term. Short term, markets behave with an emergent pattern. Something can be trading at crazy forward P/E, crazy earnings multiple.. next thing you know, earnings spike and the multiple shrinks. The thing about fundamentals is that even the ones that are forward looking, are using backward data. Fundamentals will not tell you when to buy or when to sell. They will always lag. They are great to know, as you can figure out a reasonable valuation and know if price is too far stretched one way or the other. And I think you should know them. But they won't help you with your decisions.

H-A I always appreciate your reasoned analysis

but if that is the case- then you are basically claiming there is NO safe haven except for cash (which will be losing value to inflation)

I would be interested to hear your solution to the problem you have artfully explained as to what to do with our portfolios

BMNR is still going thru price discovery so I own very little. Prices ranges from ~$40 to ~46


I was just watching Tom Lee on CNBC and he's asked what's the best vehicle for ethereum and he doesn't mention his own BMNR but says ethereum direct. Ouch


I must have caught it a little after the fact on YouTube but it drops from a high of 46 today down to the upper 39s, now back to $41. Granted eth has come down some too but not that much


I think I'm gonna cut most my losses and wait for the price to stabilize and trend better with ethereum prices. Ill put that money into etha instead for now