Japan gets 15% on autos, Indonesia was 19%

England got 10% but it appears they got a preferred nation tariff and the assumption the 10% baseline has been bumped up


It could be that all Asian nations are getting a bump to prevent a China work around



Regardless, it looks like a lot of countries will be >10% tariffs and 10-12% is pretty standard profit margins on manufactured goods.

jamey said:

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Japan gets 15% on autos, Indonesia was 19%

England got 10% but it appears they got a preferred nation tariff and the assumption the 10% baseline has been bumped up


It could be that all Asian nations are getting a bump to prevent a China work around



Regardless, it looks like a lot of countries will be >10% tariffs and 10-12% is pretty standard profit margins on manufactured goods.

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That might be the case net - our target for gross is closer to 30.

If a tariff increases the cost of a good and you are calculating a profit margin of 10-12%, doesn't that mean the consumer ultimately pays for the tariff?

Captain Winky said:

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If a tariff increases the cost of a good and you are calculating a profit margin of 10-12%, doesn't that mean the consumer ultimately pays for the tariff?

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If you fix margin, sure. That's some folks strategy. Then you run the risk of losing sales/market share trying to protect margin.

You also have volume break evens to consider for fixed costs.

Can't just refuse to sell something because you aren't getting the margin you want.

All that being said, if you customer is willing to pay the increase, pass it along.

Captain Winky said:

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If a tariff increases the cost of a good and you are calculating a profit margin of 10-12%, doesn't that mean the consumer ultimately pays for the tariff?

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Ultimately, I think so. Or at least a some chunk of it. Even if the company eats some it and producer eats some, it still shows up in company profit and loss statement and ultimately our 401Ks.

They'll all have to see what competition does, play with volume to price...etc. but 15% is a big number. I dont see how some of that doesn't trickle into consumer prices even if they slow play it over months or even years

Do you know where these profit margin numbers are even coming from? Trump's tweet yesterday said we would keep 90% of the profits. That sounds completely made up.

Captain Winky said:

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Do you know where these profit margin numbers are even coming from? Trump's tweet yesterday said we would keep 90% of the profits. That sounds completely made up.

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Referring to this maybe?

Quote:

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"Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits," Trump wrote in the post. "This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs There has never been anything like it."

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Obviously he doesn't mean 90% income tax on whatever facilties result from that investment of $550B.

Maybe it's Trump speak to say that 90% of the proift from that investment stays domestic to the US and 10% is repatriated to Japanese parent cos....

Who knows. Yesterday's Trump decoder ring doesn't necessarily work for today.

Captain Winky said:

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If a tariff increases the cost of a good and you are calculating a profit margin of 10-12%, doesn't that mean the consumer ultimately pays for the tariff?

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Its a big range depending om industry ranging from 5-20%. 20% would be higher end technical stuff like pharmaceuticals.

I was GM of a low cost labor manufacturing plant and our target what 13%. Thats pretty high for a company competing with China

TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

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Things that are for purposes of national security i would say is a benefit to all. And as I said before if they'd use tariffs to pay off debt, that would also be a benefit.
Using Yellen math and assuming she was assuming 10% baseline for all but China that could be almost half a trillion a year. But, it's not going to be used that way apparently and we aren't cutting spending either so I guess thats a moot point

Hope this is not true. Ive been wondering how many of these countries investing X amount is just more debt for US because they keep using the word financing but act like they're buying down their tariff

JAPAN SAYS ONLY 1–2% OF $550B U.S. FUND WILL BE DIRECT INVESTMENT; REST TO BE LOANS

Japan expects that just 1% to 2% of its recently announced $550 billion partnership fund with the U.S. will involve actual capital investment, with the remainder provided through loan-based…

— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 28, 2025

TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

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Govt getting 'revenue' outside of taxes and debt isn't a benefit to you?

LOYAL AG said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

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Govt getting 'revenue' outside of taxes and debt isn't a benefit to you?

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Only if they cut income taxes from their current levels. If the tariff revenue is just more money for the government then no it hasn't helped us in anyway. The expansion of the debt is going to happen until substantially all of the boomers have died and demands on Social Security and Medicare level off. The total debt will double again by 2035 regardless of what they do with tariffs and taxes.

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They did just cut taxes from the current levels (or at least, sustained the current levels, with a handful of additional cuts from campaign promises). I don't think raising tariffs from 2% to 10-15% is a good thing for the economy, though.

Trump seems primed to blame everything on Powell.

As you mentioned, Social Security and Medicare are a huge problem. Neither party seems to want to touch them and the best solution for us is probably let the "trust fund" become insolvent and have recipients take a ~70% cut in 2033.

I don't understand the math.

From what I see, most projections show US receiving $2.5-$3.0 trillion over 10 years. That's $250-$300 billion in tariffs per year. In 2024, we had $4.1 trillion of total imports. I get from 6% to 7.5% tariffs. I understand the headline numbers of 15% with XYZ Country, but they don't consider all the exceptions to tariffs. Our GDP is $29 trillion per year, so we are talking 1% of GDP.

Lutnik is now estimating 700B in tariffs per year.

The plan is to achieve a $0 bilateral trade deficit. Tariff rates were set by taking import duties equal (halved) to the ratio of deficit divided by imports. It's an incremental revenue stream to the U.S. government aimed and curtailing US consumer purchases. Those costs will hit the consumer, causing them to reduce consumption, thereby reducing the trade deficit and encouraging US buyers to buy domestically. It keeps USD in the U.S. It also forces other countries to drop their tariffs on our goods, increasing our exports and sales, boosting the U.S. economy and creating jobs and taxpayers. The 90% profit yall are talking about is likely 90% of the revenue generated by the tariffs to the U.S. government. I don't think they're getting into profit margins of companies selling goods.

The 90% profit is regarding the 600 billion or whatever the number was they claimed Japan was going to invest/finance in the US for whatever industry Trump wants, whether it be AI, energy or whatever


Japan apparently claims they are only putting in 1-2%, the rest is just another loan we can't afford.

Which is why the US getting 90% of the profit makes more sense

themissinglink said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

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Govt getting 'revenue' outside of taxes and debt isn't a benefit to you?

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Only if they cut income taxes from their current levels. If the tariff revenue is just more money for the government then no it hasn't helped us in anyway. The expansion of the debt is going to happen until substantially all of the boomers have died and demands on Social Security and Medicare level off. The total debt will double again by 2035 regardless of what they do with tariffs and taxes.

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They did just cut taxes from the current levels (or at least, sustained the current levels, with a handful of additional cuts from campaign promises). I don't think raising tariffs from 2% to 10-15% is a good thing for the economy, though.

Trump seems primed to blame everything on Powell.

As you mentioned, Social Security and Medicare are a huge problem. Neither party seems to want to touch them and the best solution for us is probably let the "trust fund" become insolvent and have recipients take a ~70% cut in 2033.

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They didn't cut taxes, they blocked a tax increase from current levels by letting them resent to pre-2018 levels. I think that's what you were saying so not arguing just making sure we're in the same page. There are some changes around the edges like raising the SALT cap but by and large the bill just makes permanent what's already in place.

Nobody is ever going to advocate for cutting entitlements. The dollars spent will go down in the next two decades as the boomers die but the programs themselves aren't changing. Hell we couldn't even get an increase in the eligibility age with an all Republican lineup. That alone would be a massive win but it's a bridge too far.

As the boomers die the math improves but there's more Gen X than Gen Z so it's still not great. This problem isn't getting fixed anytime soon.

LOYAL AG said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

---

Govt getting 'revenue' outside of taxes and debt isn't a benefit to you?

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Only if they cut income taxes from their current levels. If the tariff revenue is just more money for the government then no it hasn't helped us in anyway. The expansion of the debt is going to happen until substantially all of the boomers have died and demands on Social Security and Medicare level off. The total debt will double again by 2035 regardless of what they do with tariffs and taxes.

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This is mind virus victim stance cognitive distortion. Appreciate and cheer on what good does occur.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Mr.Milkshake said:

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TxAG#2011 said:

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Still no clear cut explanation what is the benefit to me as a citizen.

The government getting more money to build weapons isn't a benefit.

---

Govt getting 'revenue' outside of taxes and debt isn't a benefit to you?

---

Only if they cut income taxes from their current levels. If the tariff revenue is just more money for the government then no it hasn't helped us in anyway. The expansion of the debt is going to happen until substantially all of the boomers have died and demands on Social Security and Medicare level off. The total debt will double again by 2035 regardless of what they do with tariffs and taxes.

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This is mind virus victim stance cognitive distortion. Appreciate and cheer on what good does occur.

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I have no idea what you're trying to say. Please explain that like I'm 5.