Rononette has a class competition for best return over the term of the semester. It's all or nothing, so 2nd place is a loser. Any ideas?

Ask AI.

NVDA

AUST - Expecting 3-4x

Reasoning?

You could go contrarian and buy shares in SQQQ or some leveraged bear etf.

You could have him buy "shares" in NVDA251219C00180000 or some other calls of a stock you like with a December expiry.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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AUST - Expecting 3-4x

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time horizon?

Bob Knights Liver said:

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You could go contrarian and buy shares in SQQQ or some leveraged bear etf.

You could have him buy "shares" in NVDA251219C00180000 or some other calls of a stock you like with a December expiry.

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If the objective is to win, I like the idea of a maximum levered short etf.

That's probably not the best approach for learning about the stock market and investing, but I think it could be a nice lesson in game theory.

cgh1999 said:

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WWR

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This is the only correct answer from TexAgs

SOXL

I would actually consider AGQ if you were going to pick something levered.

chris1515 said:

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Let's say there are 20 kids in this class.

If 19 make a normal "long" pick, then you have to make the best pick out of 19 to win.
If you're the only kid that's short, if the market declines, you won.

Which has the higher probability?
If the market going up has a 90% chance, then you'd have a 1/20th chance of having the best stock pick among all the class, so that would be a 4.5% chance of winning.
But on the 10% scenario it drops, assuming you're the only one going short…you win.
4.5% vs 10%?

I have no clue what those percentage assumptions should really be though.

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no one in that class will be smart enough to find one of the only 4x leveraged ETF's...take SPYU and outside of some fly by night quantum computing, AI, crypto stock going parabolic, take the win and the prize...

PALANTIR

I like the long/short leverage analysis- very texags. We figured she should be able to explain why, so the short leverage angle was probably a little challenging for her, but still love it. Our draft order was:
Tesla- we see them everywhere, taxis, Elon, etc. they're volatile and at a low ish relative price point
Nvidia bc AI
TPG bc of the 401ks opening up to PE and we've got some family connection.

And we she got TPG! Let's go!

Todays close: 62.45
Tesla: 335.16
NVDA: 182.01

IBIT, probably come in either 1st or last

Ethu

This is awesome. I can't wait to check in on this thread in ten years and find out that she's making her millions in day trading all because of a little competition in 7th grade that we tracked on texags.

EliteZags said:

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EnronAg said:

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chris1515 said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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You could go contrarian and buy shares in SQQQ or some leveraged bear etf.

You could have him buy "shares" in NVDA251219C00180000 or some other calls of a stock you like with a December expiry.

---

If the objective is to win, I like the idea of a maximum levered short etf.

That's probably not the best approach for learning about the stock market and investing, but I think it could be a nice lesson in game theory.

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we are in the midst of a very strong bull market...why on earth would you take a leveraged short ETF for the balance of the year?!?! while there definitely should be some chop and volatility and a little correction, this market will rip after that...if anything, they should be going into a leverage bull ETF...we are going to 7,000 late this year or early next...bookmark that!

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its the equivalent of bidding $1 on The Price is Right

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They need to make a new show..

The Stock Price is Right

Heineken-Ashi said:

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AUST - Expecting 3-4x

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This deserves its own thread.

The next classic

GERN

I was going to suggest NVDU

Get in early on an inverse ETF directed at one stock, ride the volatility!

EnronAg said:

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chris1515 said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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You could go contrarian and buy shares in SQQQ or some leveraged bear etf.

You could have him buy "shares" in NVDA251219C00180000 or some other calls of a stock you like with a December expiry.

---

If the objective is to win, I like the idea of a maximum levered short etf.

That's probably not the best approach for learning about the stock market and investing, but I think it could be a nice lesson in game theory.

---

we are in the midst of a very strong bull market...why on earth would you take a leveraged short ETF for the balance of the year?!?! while there definitely should be some chop and volatility and a little correction, this market will rip after that...if anything, they should be going into a leverage bull ETF...we are going to 7,000 late this year or early next...bookmark that!

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Username checks out hard

If this is truly a game and you want all or nothing, I would look for biotech stocks that have a data readout sometime in the next 4 months until EOY 2025. Some of these data readouts are highly volatile and will move the stock 50+%, or in other cases double, triple or quadruple the stock price. That would be the easiest way to "win", but also a chance to really lose too.

Here is what Copilot suggested:

Here's a curated list of publicly traded biotech stocks with major clinical data readouts expected within the next 4 months and analyst expectations of significant stock movement (50% or more):

Biotech Stocks with Upcoming Data Readouts (AugDec 2025)
These companies have key clinical trial milestones that could act as catalysts:
1. Apogee Therapeutics (APGE)

• Event: Phase 2 proof-of-concept data for APG777 in Atopic Dermatitis.
• Timing: Mid to late 2025.
• Potential: High volatility expected due to novel mechanism
  1
  .

2. MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX)

• Event: Phase 3 topline data for sonelokimab in Hidradenitis Suppurativa.
• Timing: Q3 2025.
• Potential: Analysts expect strong efficacy could double valuation
  1
  .

3. Atai Life Sciences (ATAI)

• Event: Multiple readouts including Phase 3 COMP360 (psilocybin) for Treatment-Resistant Depression.
• Timing: Q3Q4 2025.
• Potential: Psychedelic sector volatility; potential for >50% move
  1
  .

4. Cytokinetics (CYTK)

• Event: Phase 3 readout for aficamten in heart failure.
• Timing: Late 2025.
• Potential: Piper Sandler flags it as a top catalyst stock
  2
  .

5. Immunovant (IMVT)

• Event: Multiple autoimmune trial readouts.
• Timing: Q3Q4 2025.
• Potential: Analysts expect strong upside if efficacy is confirmed
  2
  .

6. Prothena Corporation (PRTA)

• Event: Alzheimer's and Parkinson's pipeline data.
• Timing: Q4 2025.
• Potential: High-risk, high-reward; potential for doubling
  2
  .

7. Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

• Event: Phase 2 data for NTLA-2002 (Hereditary Angioedema).
• Timing: Q4 2025.
• Potential: Morningstar estimates 80% undervaluation
  3
  .

8. Altimmune (ALT)

• Event: Phase 2b obesity drug data.
• Timing: Q4 2025.
• Potential: Obesity sector is hot; potential for major upside
  2
  .

Personally I would stay away from any company dealing with mental health disorders (hit rate is extremely low) and CRISPR stocks like NTLA.

Just went through this list and ATAI has recently run from ~$1.50 to $4.50! Damn! Wish I had known about that one earlier

I would pick a smaller datacenter manager...HUT8 or Vantage!

Ask her what is the most popular thing in her class - could be clothes, games, food, whatever - then find the company/stock leader nearest that product/market.

One, at that age they are closer to trendsetters than we as parents are, and see what's moving. Two, it will lend itself to valuable discussions on trends/manias vs. stable strong businesses and the difference between popularity and success.

Good luck!

MSTR, NVDA,TTD