The danger of Private Equity Investing...

2,801 Views | 30 Replies | Last: 17 days ago by dallasag_123
LMCane
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with DJT calling for 401Ks to add in more private equity offerings for retirees, this is a pretty interesting article.

glad I never invested in Yieldstreet!

investors lose everything in private equity
Sims
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AG
Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.
cab559
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AG
No kidding, I wouldn't confuse Yieldstreet with Private Equity.
Heineken-Ashi
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Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.

20% IRR is a pretty standard target for multifamily. These days, you will only get it with one of 3 scenarios..

1. Purchase below market - has to have significant discount in rents to comps. Renovate, raise rents to market, and improve operations. 3-5 year play.

2. Buy on floater, rates come down with rents staying flat or rising. Refinance in 3 years at lower rate. Sell in 5-10 years at lower cap rate.

3. Massive cap rate compression. AKA rates get slashed back to 2%.

Anyone promising any of those will work without outlining the risks should be avoided. But the last 10 years were nothing but those 3. And all were enabled due to constantly falling rates which led to cap rate compression. Add in the inflation spike in rents and it was easy. People think it will be like that again. I personally don't. I think you have to buy strategically (good real estate, proper capital identification and deployment, conservative rent growth, conservative expense assumptions, modeled to sell at flat to higher cap rates). If the deal works without having to make massive bullish assumptions for 5 years down the road, its a good buy. Though likely not a 20% IRR. If the bull case is your standard modeled case, well.. good luck. You're gambling.
Sims
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AG
20% isn't the disqualifier in and of itself. It's that in conjunction with sourcing the general public.

If they can't get the funds from professionals/semi-professionals then they've likely already been turned down. I wouldn't want to be the patsy.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
Yep. PE is insanely risky. And even the successful ones can be become capital traps.
Diggity
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AG
Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

who could have seen this coming?
LMCane
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Diggity said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

who could have seen this coming?

that is exactly what I thought the first time I read it!!

good tipoff that the company repping that scam artist is going to scam you as well.
Heineken-Ashi
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Sims said:

20% isn't the disqualifier in and of itself. It's that in conjunction with sourcing the general public.

If they can't get the funds from professionals/semi-professionals then they've likely already been turned down. I wouldn't want to be the patsy.

Yes. Even Grant Cardone only targets 12%-15% IRR when he cold calls grandma to invest.
insulator_king
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AG
Agreed, what kind of fool would invest in something promising 20% rate of return!!!!
I'd NEVER fall for that!
[Quietly checks on $ULTY investment which is 1.06% of my portflio].
LMCane
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Sims said:

20% isn't the disqualifier in and of itself. It's that in conjunction with sourcing the general public.

If they can't get the funds from professionals/semi-professionals then they've likely already been turned down. I wouldn't want to be the patsy.

Yes. Even Grant Cardone only targets 12%-15% IRR when he cold calls grandma to invest.

I have never understood the business model of Grant Cardone

if ever there is a modern day Snake Oil Salesman- that seems to be the guy.

Proposition Joe
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Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.


The way I look at most of these deals is ask yourself if there's any reason they are coming to you specifically.

If there isn't, then you're simply the guy getting in after every sharp investor that wanted a bite, took it. Long-term that's not a winning proposition.
Heineken-Ashi
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Proposition Joe said:

Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.


The way I look at most of these deals is ask yourself if there's any reason they are coming to you specifically.

If there isn't, then you're simply the guy getting in after every sharp investor that wanted a bite, took it. Long-term that's not a winning proposition.

It depends. Learning to underwrite a deal yourself is the best strategy.
Proposition Joe
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.


The way I look at most of these deals is ask yourself if there's any reason they are coming to you specifically.

If there isn't, then you're simply the guy getting in after every sharp investor that wanted a bite, took it. Long-term that's not a winning proposition.

It depends. Learning to underwrite a deal yourself is the best strategy.


You should always do your due diligence on any investment and never take the returns advertised at face value.

But the bigger point is that unless there's some reason the deal actually landed on your doorstep (personal connection, you put the deal together, you uncovered the opportunity, etc...) then it likely means a number of people/institutions passed on it before it got to you.

Doesn't mean there's not still some meat on the bone, but for many people they're just gambling on something that sounds exclusive or "an opportunity", but is really just someone looking to offload risk.
ATM9000
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AG
Whether or not PE gets added to 401k plans still lies in the hands of employers. And I suspect most will pass on that option given risk associated with PE investments and messiness of long lockout periods for investors.

In fact I've wondered if this push ends up backfiring for the PE business model and opens up a lot of unintended consequences PE don't want opened up in the long run.
Heineken-Ashi
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Proposition Joe said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.


The way I look at most of these deals is ask yourself if there's any reason they are coming to you specifically.

If there isn't, then you're simply the guy getting in after every sharp investor that wanted a bite, took it. Long-term that's not a winning proposition.

It depends. Learning to underwrite a deal yourself is the best strategy.


You should always do your due diligence on any investment and never take the returns advertised at face value.

But the bigger point is that unless there's some reason the deal actually landed on your doorstep (personal connection, you put the deal together, you uncovered the opportunity, etc...) then it likely means a number of people/institutions passed on it before it got to you.

Doesn't mean there's not still some meat on the bone, but for many people they're just gambling on something that sounds exclusive or "an opportunity", but is really just someone looking to offload risk.

Almost every deal my company bought was passed on by dozens of other groups. That means that when our syndication offering goes out to potential investors, it landed on their desk because a number of other people/institutions passed on it before it got to them.

The deal either makes sense or it doesn't. Has nothing to do with how you found it.
ATM9000
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AG
Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

Sims said:

Quote:

He invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann's family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%.

If annual returns are targeting 20% (and have any realistic chance of getting there) and they are asking the general public for money, run away.


The way I look at most of these deals is ask yourself if there's any reason they are coming to you specifically.

If there isn't, then you're simply the guy getting in after every sharp investor that wanted a bite, took it. Long-term that's not a winning proposition.

It depends. Learning to underwrite a deal yourself is the best strategy.


You should always do your due diligence on any investment and never take the returns advertised at face value.

But the bigger point is that unless there's some reason the deal actually landed on your doorstep (personal connection, you put the deal together, you uncovered the opportunity, etc...) then it likely means a number of people/institutions passed on it before it got to you.

Doesn't mean there's not still some meat on the bone, but for many people they're just gambling on something that sounds exclusive or "an opportunity", but is really just someone looking to offload risk.

Almost every deal my company bought was passed on by dozens of other groups. That means that when our syndication offering goes out to potential investors, it landed on their desk because a number of other people/institutions passed on it before it got to them.

The deal either makes sense or it doesn't. Has nothing to do with how you found it.


Agree with this. My company passes on good deals in our wheelhouse all the time be it strategy, not wanting to commit to heads, already too full with similar deals etc.

How a deal comes to you generally doesn't matter that much.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
I disagree. Joe is right. The good deals don't get out much. And the really good operators keep a tight group of LPs. If you're buying a deal afterwards you're just exit liquidity for the original LP.
Proposition Joe
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You guys keep talking "your company", which right off the bat means the accessibility of the deal was likely less than what your common investor is seeing.

The common investor getting access to a "private equity deal" is getting either someone else's risk they didn't want, or something that has already had most of the meat already gnawed off of it. The vast majority out there available to investors is simply people lining up to become bag holders.

Can you still profit on it? Sure. You can still win taking +3 when the line has already been bet down from +7. But for the common investor, the investment is much better elsewhere.
Heineken-Ashi
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Proposition Joe said:

You guys keep talking "your company", which right off the bat means the accessibility of the deal was likely less than what your common investor is seeing.

The common investor getting access to a "private equity deal" is getting either someone else's risk they didn't want, or something that has already had most of the meat already gnawed off of it. The vast majority out there available to investors is simply people lining up to become bag holders.

Can you still profit on it? Sure. You can still win taking +3 when the line has already been bet down from +7. But for the common investor, the investment is much better elsewhere.

What is your exposure / experience to the private CRE industry?
Proposition Joe
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Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

You guys keep talking "your company", which right off the bat means the accessibility of the deal was likely less than what your common investor is seeing.

The common investor getting access to a "private equity deal" is getting either someone else's risk they didn't want, or something that has already had most of the meat already gnawed off of it. The vast majority out there available to investors is simply people lining up to become bag holders.

Can you still profit on it? Sure. You can still win taking +3 when the line has already been bet down from +7. But for the common investor, the investment is much better elsewhere.

What is your exposure / experience to the private CRE industry?


Enough to know that the last 15 years has been about as favorable as it gets, leading a lot of people to think they are experts (wink).

Again, I'm directing my comments to Joe Investor (what the OP's linked article was about). They hear "private equity" and think they are getting offered some deal that the masses aren't privy to, when for the most part they are simply taking on someone else's risk and 9 times outta 10 would be better off in an index fund.
insulator_king
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AG
Proposition Joe said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Proposition Joe said:

You guys keep talking "your company", which right off the bat means the accessibility of the deal was likely less than what your common investor is seeing.

The common investor getting access to a "private equity deal" is getting either someone else's risk they didn't want, or something that has already had most of the meat already gnawed off of it. The vast majority out there available to investors is simply people lining up to become bag holders.

Can you still profit on it? Sure. You can still win taking +3 when the line has already been bet down from +7. But for the common investor, the investment is much better elsewhere.

What is your exposure / experience to the private CRE industry?


Enough to know that the last 15 years has been about as favorable as it gets, leading a lot of people to think they are experts (wink).

Again, I'm directing my comments to Joe Investor (what the OP's linked article was about). They hear "private equity" and think they are getting offered some deal that the masses aren't privy to, when for the most part they are simply taking on someone else's risk and 9 times outta 10 would be better off in an index fund.

Or ULTY
Or WWR


OK, how about both.

But seriously SCHB, SCHX, VOO or VOOG would be the simplest and best for these folks. And what I should have done.
Holistic Planning
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Sponsor
87% of companies generating more than 100mm in revenue per year are privately owned.

Simply stating that private equity is risky (compared to what) is just wrong.

Is SpaceX riskier than other investments? Maybe less liquid…sure. Perhaps less transparent books…fair. But there's a huge marketplace for privately owned businesses that are high quality.

You seem to think private equity is equal to venture capital which is a type of PE investment with a high risk reward profile.
www.holisticplanning.com/intro
Remarkably personal financial advice for a fuller life.
Yukon Cornelius
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AG
True but there's the liquidity problem. You can't get out if you want to. And you have no say in the use of profits. So if majority owners keep re-investing on paper you can say XYZ company is up. But you have actually haven't made a single dollar and you're stuck in it. You're essentially hoping and waiting for the decision makers to go public.

Liquidity is king.
Holistic Planning
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Liquidity is important and one major reason why there's high net worth requirement right now to invest in private markets.
www.holisticplanning.com/intro
Remarkably personal financial advice for a fuller life.
chris1515
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AG
I thought this was a good video on the topic.

Yukon Cornelius
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No doubt. But the PE funds that the mangers like to push are just conglomerates of companies. They are buying into a bunch hoping a few hit big on an IPO. Or find another PE fund looking to buy their position. These are capital prisons.

I say all that. I'm in several PE deals and have been for awhile now. But to prop Joes point. You really want to be on the front end of these other you're just exit liquidity for someone else.

rononeill
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Also keep in mind the house scrape that erodes your returns. I was a sponsor in several CRE private placements. Was excited about the deals, telling my folks about them, they asked if they should invest... I said no, for you to get the advertised %13, the deal has to pencil at a 20%, and I'm gonna make 45%. Now a 13% is nothing to pee on, but there are A LOT of people making A LOT money before you do, presuming things go right. If they don't go right, that section about dilution and liquidity rights gets important- but that's why the print is small and $1400/hr lawyers write it. The only for sure winner is the wholesaler, but his career gets limited if he sells a dawg.
The Silverback
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AG
LMCane said:

Heineken-Ashi said:

Sims said:

20% isn't the disqualifier in and of itself. It's that in conjunction with sourcing the general public.

If they can't get the funds from professionals/semi-professionals then they've likely already been turned down. I wouldn't want to be the patsy.

Yes. Even Grant Cardone only targets 12%-15% IRR when he cold calls grandma to invest.

I have never understood the business model of Grant Cardone

if ever there is a modern day Snake Oil Salesman- that seems to be the guy.



I've heard his business partner Brandon Dawson makes Grant look like a Saint
Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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AG
I'm a VP at a previously PE backed company. Dating back to 2011 we have had 5 funds that have had exits. Our IRRs for these range from 2.5% IRR to 64.5% IRR, with a weighted average around 26% IRR and 1.83x ROI. The GPs in these funds are not retail investors.

We are not at all like the types of things many people associate with "PrIvAtE eQuItY" these days, ie buying a familiar brand and financial engineering a way to extract value to the detriment of the portfolio company. We have always had a very hands off approach from management with a mandate to deliver returns and be stewards of the capital committed to us and our strategy. We have never had a fund that lost money in the long run and I think our investors are very happy to have invested with us.
dallasag_123
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Great! So you have the abilty to invest in spaceX and the other 87% of the companies generating 100 mm in rev? If not, who cares about them. If the public has the opportunity to invest in a company, you are more then likely on the wrong end of the cycle.
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