Call your shot - Sept. 17, 2025

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Red Pear Realty
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8:36a, 9/8/25
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What say you TexAgs? How does the Fed pivot, if at all, at their next meeting on 9/17?
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8:37a, 9/8/25
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No move

Target rate remains at 425 to 450 bps
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8:37a, 9/8/25
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25 bps rate cut

400 to 425 bps target rate
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8:38a, 9/8/25
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50 bps rate cut

375 to 400 bps target rate
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8:38a, 9/8/25
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Secret answer: You call it.
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Sims
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9:23a, 9/9/25
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As the prelim benchmark revisions are released today, the four of us in the 50 bps camp welcome all changes of opinion from the 25 bps camp.
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In reply to Sims • 9:52a, 9/9/25
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I think it should be 50 but they will only do 25. Idk. Maybe we get 50!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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12:38p, 9/9/25
AG
They cut rate and market sells news.
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scrap
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4:39p, 9/9/25
AG
They cut .25%
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Gordo14
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7:52p, 9/9/25
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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TTUArmy
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3:24p, 9/10/25
Jerome stated Fed action is data-driven. Ha! Data-driven...my muscular buttocks.

If they happen to be using government provided data, then they're economic assessment is skewed to all hell and back. Generally, this is par for the Fed. We'll probably see a total of 200 bps cuts by December as every one, but the Fed, finally acknowledges they are behind on cutting rates.

My shot is 50 bps in September.
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aggiebrad16
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:14p, 9/10/25
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$30,000 Millionaire said:
They cut rate and market sells news.


This is my bet.
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Jay@AgsReward.com
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7:59a, 9/11/25
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They cut .250 and mortgage rates are up 50 BP within a week.
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In reply to Jay@AgsReward.com • 8:02a, 9/11/25
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Jay@AgsReward.com said:
They cut .250 and mortgage rates are up 50 BP within a week.


I think this is the most likely short term outcome. Good time to lock now!
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Jay@AgsReward.com
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 8:07a, 9/11/25
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It is, but hard to get borrowers to understand no matter how much data I show them.
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LMCane
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 9:33a, 9/11/25
Red Pear Realty said:
What say you TexAgs? How does the Fed pivot, if at all, at their next meeting on 9/17?

25 BPS cut
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Caliber
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 10:18a, 9/11/25
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Red Pear Realty said:
Jay@AgsReward.com said:
They cut .250 and mortgage rates are up 50 BP within a week.


I think this is the most likely short term outcome. Good time to lock now!

Not doing a mortgage/loan on any near-term horizon, so doesn't really affect me, but can y'all explain this a bit more?
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Tex117
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10:24a, 9/11/25
AG
25 basis cut.

Will temporarily decrease 10 year treasury (and by virtue, mortgage rates), but will soon move higher.

And homebuyers will not comeback to the market IN MASS when they realize the difference between a 6.79% and a 6.29% mortgage rate still isn't enough for homes to be affordable at scale.

But some deals will be had. As always.

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MAS444
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10:26a, 9/11/25
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Jay and Jamie -

I AM looking to do a refinance of a high rate and would like to know more about yalls opinion on this as well. I can lock a significantly lower rate now (paying 3/4 points) that would be great but my mortgage person thinks I should wait....
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to Caliber • 10:29a, 9/11/25
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The Fed does not directly control mortgage interest rates. Those are set by the market, and primarily track the 10 year treasury yield.

Further, historically, when the Fed does lower their target overnight yield rate, mortgage rates rise in the short term. It's a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of effect.

Jay was also lamenting the fact that many people do not trust us when we give them advice. Honestly, there is a lot of bad advice out there and a lot of bad actors, so I get it, but its still frustrating when folks ignore us when we tell them something that we can almost guarantee is true. Most clients are not going to come on here and post when their lender told them to lock but they ignored that advice and rates went up 50 bps, and most lenders aren't going to come on here and dunk on those clients when they were wrong. But it happens.
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In reply to MAS444 • 10:32a, 9/11/25
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You should run the payback period calculations and decide for yourself. But the answer is probably either (1) do it now or (2) wait a year or so to try and get rates down a bit further. The market is betting on lower rates in a year or so.
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Jay@AgsReward.com
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In reply to MAS444 • 10:38a, 9/11/25
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I posted this on the real estate board last week or so, the 88% mentioned below is now 100%.

In Sept 24' 30-year fixed mortagge rates were at 6.18. The lowest they had been since Sept of 22'. In Sept 24' the Fed dropped the fed funds rates effective rate from 5.13 to 4.83%. the 50 BP rate cut we all remember. Mortgage rates went down, right? No, almost immediately mortgage rates jumped to 6.43% on their way to 7% by Jan even though the fed cut two more times lowering the effective Funds rate to 4.33.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YPBJ

and this is by no means an historical anomaly either. The fed funds rate is an overnight rate that banks lend to each other, and has very little to do with long term rates. The bond market sets long terms rates including what rates are for mortgage backed securties, and these MBS securties are what actual set mortgage rates. The fed funds rate is the most talked about rate in the whole complex, so if you and I know that the fed will likely cut in Sept, dont you think those who do it for a living likely do as well? The rate cut has already been priced in as a 88% proabailty so this is baked in up and down of the yield curve. Now, as I always tell borrowers the Powell press conferevne is more important then the actual cut or no cut (again, that is almost always known going)

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

The myth that the Fed controls mortgage rates is just that a myth. But, it does have a hand in controlling HELOC's as they are typicaly based on Prime. and Prime is 3% over the Fed funds. so a .25% cut will drop most HELOC's by that same .25%.
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MAS444
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10:39a, 9/11/25
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I appreciate it as always.
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YouBet
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11:25a, 9/11/25
AG
I don't know but it certainly seems like a cut is coming.

Goldman is predicting three cuts by end of year. 25 bps is their prediction for what it's worth and sometimes it's worth less than nothing.
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Aggie1205
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12:30p, 9/11/25
AG
Where do we star to vote that they say screw it and drop it 3 full points like Trump is calling for? I wonder what would happen to the market then.
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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to Aggie1205 • 12:34p, 9/11/25
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That was "Secret Answer: You Call It"
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Red Pear Realty
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4:06p, 9/17/25
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TexAgs was right again.
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Jay@AgsReward.com
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 4:29p, 9/17/25
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and MBS prices are up .37 bps. So, yes, mortgage rates went up.
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In reply to Jay@AgsReward.com • 4:34p, 9/17/25
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Jay@AgsReward.com said:
and MBS prices are up .37 bps. So, yes, mortgage rates went up.

Called it.
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