Where do you guys think Tesla stock will go as its creeping towards its all time high? I tend to think it has a long way to rise long term.

just got $550 for a 10/17 $520 CC

is it really gonna keep popping $30/wk

I loaded up in April at $263 and am going to keep riding the train

Q3 is going to be good. Q4 vehicle deliveries will be bad to mediocre. Energy will need to pick it up for it to stay above $400 through the end of the year.

If V14 gets released and they're able to remove safety drivers in Austin, and they announce their low cost vehicles before the end of the year then there might not be a sell off year end/beginning of next year.

Long term I think it's going up, because I do believe they're going to solve self driving and I do think that business is going to be wildly profitable, and I do think they're going to see explosive growth in energy.

I am on this same track. I'm also optimistic about Optimus in the longer term.

I guess, I'll keep holding.

I am heavy into Tesla (60% of my stocks) and think they will hit 600-800 sometime next year. I will continue to add to my already overweight position.

FSD is very close, drive HW4+FSD13 yourself. Optimus will be a few years away but will change how we live. Watch both turn into SAS and they will be printing money.

Well, I'll be the outlier then. I have Oct. 17th $350 puts.

I'm not anti-TSLA long-term, just felt it was a bit over-extended. I've been wrong, so far..

Going to be a fair bit of good news between now and Oct 17th, don't really see what bad news is near term. Between now and end of year I could see $350 being in play, not so much now and Oct 17. That's just me.

I have been bullish on Tsla since 2021 and even more so today.

I sold Covered calls about 2 wks ago for a 3 month strike of $420 when Tsla was trading at 335 for about 5% premium. I didn't think Tsla would jump 25% in 3 months, well it shot past 420 in about 2 wks. I have essentially lost all upside on the stock but can't really complain with +100/share accounting for premiums.

Still bullish and would love for Tsla to drop alittle so I can close out the position and add more shares.

Gonna caution you on FSD. It's been "close" for a long time, but it's a problem that you have to measure in work remaining instead of progress made because a lot of the effort is backloaded. Think an 80/20 problem, but more extreme.

With software development, getting to an MVP or working POC is usually somewhat easy. Scaling it up to a viable product is difficult, but not insurmountable. Making that software everything for everyone and meeting every potential customer edge case will take you an order of magnitude longer, though. That's basically what FSD has to do when it comes to driving. The progress made so far is naturally all of the low and maybe some of the mid hanging fruit, but the actual "Full" part of FSD means much, much more work and training. The devil is in the details, and there are a lot of them.

You might be correct, but you also might be the guy in 1912 telling Henry Ford that it will take him 15+ years to sell his 2 millionth vehicle, because he had only sold 150,000 vehicles in the last 4 years, not recognizing that for the first 4 years he had been developing the moving assembly line manufacturing process and in actuality it only took him just over 4 years to sell the 2 millionth vehicle.

1. They have dramatically increased the data collection rates 2021: 2 million vehicles on the road, today >8 million.
2. They have dramatically increased the rate of data ingestion, videos now auto labeled for training.
3. Dramatically increased the rate of control response development, humans no longer manually instructing the softwares response.
4. Dramatically increased the amount of training compute since 2023, 10x-ing amount of training compute.
5. Next year will release a new vehicle processing unit that is dramatically better than the current processing unit (3 years old), not to mention the most common (8 years old).


Details of things that have happened over the last 10 years:

-2018 Tesla developed an inhouse designed chip (HW3/AI3) specifically made for processing video data.

-2018 Began mass production of the Model 3, doubling the number of vehicles on the road in the first year.

-2021 Released a beta version of the software that was built using a video model trained off of manually labeled video and a control system manually written by software engineers

-Summer 2022 Labeled enough video data that the system was no automatically labeling video data and laid off their data labeling team.

-Fall 2022 Began development on a new build of the software that went into simultaneous development with the main branch that instead of taking recognition of objects in the video data and prescriptively responding to it with manually written instructions, began analyzing driver behavior given those video feeds and responding in the way a human responds.

-By Spring 2023 it was clear internally that the end to end approach was surpassing the manually written instructions, and though not yet known externally, that they were going to pivot away from the manually written instructions and go full send on the end to end approach.

-Spring 2023 AI4/HW4 chip integrated into the Model Y vehicles, replacing an at the time ~7 year old processing unit.

-Fall 2023 Elon goes on X livestream and demonstrates the new end to end model, with the system rolling out to employees that winter.

-Fall 2023 Tesla begins ramping up purchases of training compute, ~10x-ing training compute capacity between Fall 2023 and present day.

-Spring 2024 the first public release (V12) of the end to end software was sent to consumer vehicles, receiving positive reviews for the leap in improvement/human like driving, software still operating based upon capabilities of the AI3/HW3 computer, with AI4/HW4 vehicles emulating the capabilities of the AI3 computer.

-Winter 2024 the first AI4 native build (V13) of the software was released to consumer vehicles, while still not fully utilizing the full capabilities of the AI4 chip.

-Spring 2025 released for use in China

-July 2025 launched pilot Robotaxi service in Austin with safety monitor in passenger seat rather than in the driver's seat.

-August 2025 expanded service to SF with safety driver in driver's seat, expanded service area of Austin service

-September 2025 expanded service area of Austin service, launched Robotaxi app on the app store opening sign ups to the general public.

-September 2025 released for use in Australia/New Zealand.


Future:
-V14 with fully realized explotation of AI4 computer, increasing paramater count/context window with claimed performance 2-3x better than a human (we shall see). Released before EOY 2025.

-AI5 chip released 2026, claimed 8x improvement over AI4 computer.

I don't think tesla wins the self driving car race, but they might and they have plenty of other robotic opps that can really scale. I have a small position in case they do end up winning on FSD.

I don't think the fsd race winners will be the car manufacturer.

What happened in last two weeks? Was literally just reading 1-2 weeks ago that TSLA was f'ed and most were down on it.

And then it immediately proceeds to hit 52 wk high. lol.

Tesla released their proposal for comp plan for Elon, delivery numbers are trending better than predicted, they announced production rate for their Texas Megapack (now branded Megablock, 50 GWh) facility, the Fed cut interest rates, they received approval to start testing Robotaxis in Nevada, and Elon executed the largest insider stock purchase in history.

hph6203 said:

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Tesla released their proposal for comp plan for Elon, delivery numbers are trending better than predicted, they announced production rate for their Texas Megapack (now branded Megablock, 50 GWh) facility, the Fed cut interest rates, they received approval to start testing Robotaxis in Nevada, and Elon executed the largest insider stock purchase in history.

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Oh, that's right. I actually read and commented about his new package elsewhere. Duh.

Tesla is an AI, robotics, and robotaxi company going forward. Kind of wish I had purchased some with that announcement, but I have it through other funds.

People still view Tesla as a car company which is very far from the truth. They still need to make the cars towards their end goal and the cars/manufacturing are their big advantage over all other self driving companies.

Telsa is at the cusp of changing how we live. I have no idea if Tsla will be up or down in the next year but I am extremely confident that they will be the most valuable company in the next 3-5 yrs.

harge57 said:

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I don't think tesla wins the self driving car race

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I am just curious who you think will. It surly is not Waymo.

Tesla has the only practical approach and current manufacturing capabilities to solve this in the next 2-3 yrs. From my POV, they are so far ahead of everyone that it is a fore gone conclusion.

Last month we took a trip in my 2025 Model Y that I had intended to create a post about on Automotive so we could discuss FSD. We used it almost exclusively in driving from College Station to Colorado Springs, Dodge City, Wichita Falls then back home. There's nothing else like it and nobody is close. There's a reason that the comparison articles discussing the various driver assist programs exclude FSD. It's simply not the same. On the way to Colorado Springs I drove less than one mile the entire almost 900 miles. The list of things it doesn't handle well is starting to look a lot like the list of things humans don't handle well either. Based solely on my trip I might argue Tesla has already won the self driving race. They are way, way, way ahead of everyone else.

Did you notice a difference in your driver fatigue? We drive Houston to Virginia at least once a year and it usually take me half a day or more to settle down from the road vibration and general fatigue from driving that far.

Medaggie said:

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People still view Tesla as a car company which is very far from the truth. They still need to make the cars towards their end goal and the cars/manufacturing are their big advantage over all other self driving companies.

Telsa is at the cusp of changing how we live. I have no idea if Tsla will be up or down in the next year but I am extremely confident that they will be the most valuable company in the next 3-5 yrs.

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Well, Musk flat out said that in his latest "state of the union" document (I forget what he calls it).

He also said last week that 80% of Tesla's value going forward will be Optimus.

Ragoo said:

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Did you notice a difference in your driver fatigue? We drive Houston to Virginia at least once a year and it usually take me half a day or more to settle down from the road vibration and general fatigue from driving that far.

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Along those lines I noticed a couple of things you'd want to be aware of.

1. It does take longer overall simply because you stop to charge more often than you would stop for gas. Above about 70 range starts to deteriorate just like a gas car does but range is already shorter. Having said that it'll go 3 hours between charges which for us is about right anyway. I can drive to Fredericksburg comfortably, leaving at 100% and arriving around 20%, just as an example of what you can expect.

2. I'm less fatigued when I arrive somewhere on a drive like that. The first day we went to Amarillo but we arrived at midnight having left after I'd had a 3 hour bike ride so I was going to be tired no matter what. The second day we got to Colorado Springs and I changed clothes and mentored early stage entrepreneurs for 2+ hours and was engaged the whole time so yeah I'd say I felt good.

3. It's a calmer driver than I am. It doesn't get mad at the person parked in the left lane and it doesn't speed up to make that light. It's just a more pleasant experience all around.

LOYAL AG said:

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Last month we took a trip in my 2025 Model Y that I had intended to create a post about on Automotive so we could discuss FSD. We used it almost exclusively in driving from College Station to Colorado Springs, Dodge City, Wichita Falls then back home. There's nothing else like it and nobody is close. There's a reason that the comparison articles discussing the various driver assist programs exclude FSD. It's simply not the same. On the way to Colorado Springs I drove less than one mile the entire almost 900 miles. The list of things it doesn't handle well is starting to look a lot like the list of things humans don't handle well either. Based solely on my trip I might argue Tesla has already won the self driving race. They are way, way, way ahead of everyone else.

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Have you tried waymo?

Medaggie said:

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harge57 said:

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I don't think tesla wins the self driving car race

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I am just curious who you think will. It surly is not Waymo.

Tesla has the only practical approach and current manufacturing capabilities to solve this in the next 2-3 yrs. From my POV, they are so far ahead of everyone that it is a fore gone conclusion.

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Waymo has over 100 million miles of actual FSD rides. How would they not be seen as the leader. Tesla has maybe 10s of thousands in austin?

I honestly think UBER will end up the winner in FSD. Eventually the FSD capabilities will be ubiquitous across cars. I think UBER is best positioned for the long transition of a hybrid of drivered and FSD rideshare services. If every vehicle produced starting today was FSD it would take another 10 to 15 years to actually move to majority of FSD rides. You can't just put a few thousand vehicles in a market and be effective. Wait times will be too long.

I'm in all of them waymo Uber and TSLA.

How much profit have they made over those 100 million miles. When will they be profitable?

That's why.

They're paying money to accumulate 2 million miles of data per week to train and improve their software, losing money per rider. Tesla is being paid to produce 200 million miles of data per day, >17 million miles per day of which is on their self driving software.

The fact remains TSLA has not solved the hardest part of FSD and that is the jump from 99% to 100% FSD.

I'd argue neither has Waymo, they're just far less transparent about their issues/support costs. A robotaxi that burns money rather than makes money is a science fair project, not a business. The race is between Tesla reaching autonomous competence and Waymo cost downing their vehicle, training and support systems to the point it can actually make a profit.

Over and over again in AI it has been shown that data wins the day and Tesla is accumulating an order of magnitude more than Waymo while still making a profit.

Tell that to the 250,000 riders per week taking fsd rides with waymo.

That Waymo is subsidizing. The economics matter. They also pay remote monitors that correct for their software errors on their vehicles. That's if they catch the car before it drives down the wrong side of the road or parks in the middle of an intersection.

Not really. The car can be 5x the cost a long as you don't have to pay a driver. Currently drivers make almost $1 per mile. That goes away and the economics work.

TSLA might catch up, but they are objectively far and away behind right now. Not sure their camera only approach will ever get to 100% FSD.

That $1 per mile pays for more than the driver. Costs that Waymo has to absorb. It pays for the maintenance, the fuel, the repairs, the vehicle storage, the vehicle, everything that isn't the interconnect and insurance not covered by the individual driver. Current rumors are Waymo's vehicles cost in the neighborhood of $150,000, which spread over a 500,000 useful life/5 year duration is $.30 on its own. Cost per mile based upon the baseline efficiency of the vehicles they operate on + all of the sensors and compute onboard is going to approach $.10 per mile. Paying for the training compute, the driver monitors, the repairs and maintenance. The insurance. It adds up.

They are losing money per mile right now while charging more than Uber on their Waymo app.

Have you driven a Tesla with FSD? There is no such thing as "100%" in autonomous driving.

Which car can drive on the highway? Tesla. Waymo just starting.

Which car can drive from once city to another? Tesla

Which car is geofenced? Waymo

Which car is 4-10x the cost? Waymo

How many months will it take Waymo to match Ubers 1M cars on the road? 500yrs at current production. Tesla? 6 months.

Yeah, sure looks like Waymo is way ahead. Waymo would be bankrupt if not owned by Google.

TxAG#2011 said:

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LOYAL AG said:

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Last month we took a trip in my 2025 Model Y that I had intended to create a post about on Automotive so we could discuss FSD. We used it almost exclusively in driving from College Station to Colorado Springs, Dodge City, Wichita Falls then back home. There's nothing else like it and nobody is close. There's a reason that the comparison articles discussing the various driver assist programs exclude FSD. It's simply not the same. On the way to Colorado Springs I drove less than one mile the entire almost 900 miles. The list of things it doesn't handle well is starting to look a lot like the list of things humans don't handle well either. Based solely on my trip I might argue Tesla has already won the self driving race. They are way, way, way ahead of everyone else.

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Have you tried waymo?

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Couple of thoughts on Waymo.

First, understand I'm only talking about cars available for consumer purchase and you and I can't buy a Waymo. I'm not aware of any plan to make the system available for consumers. If you could buy it you wouldn't for the second point.

Second, Waymo is extremely limited in its application. It's only available in specific geographic regions where Google has sufficiently detailed maps. On the trip I described if I could have owned a Waymo it wouldn't have been useful for any of it. Waymo isn't available in any area of that trip.

To be clear I think what Waymo has is amazing. It's a truly autonomous car and that's awesome. But it's not a competitor to Tesla FSD. It is a competitor to Robotaxi and I'll readily admit that it's ahead in that area. But my Tesla will drive everywhere and Waymo won't. Further if they continue to rely on highly detailed maps it will never be a consumer product because places like Clayton, NM will never be sufficiently mapped. It's just not the same product.

Unless Uber switches to another business where they can leverage their user/customer base, they will be out of business in 3-5 years. They will be going away like the Fax machine.

The way I see things playing out is Tsla solving FSD, putting out millions of robotaxis a year, and then licensing the tech to other car companies. They will essentially be the MSFT of FSD and printing money. They will be the only company to have driving data and software to solve FSD at the cheapest price.

Many do not know that Tsla was trying to solve FSD early on similar to Waymo. Complex codes, Radar, etc. Elon took a big risk and believed FSD is best solved with Vision +AI rather than how Waymo does itm(Lidar+Camera+Radar+Mapping+Complex codes)

I could very well be wrong but I will go with the cheaper approach that can easily reach mass at scale rather than Waymo that has essentially only reached 5 cities.

Spend some time in a Tsla and you will be amazed at how good FSD is. HWY driving is amazing. I am beginning to trust it in the city and it drives just as good a s human.

There's been talk of Uber and Tesla partnering which I think makes a ton of sense for both and maybe the only way Uber survives in the long term. Waymo is already a better product than Uber other than the obvious fact that it's not profitable yet. If it can get there that's a major problem for Uber. If we're both right that Tesla figures out FSD completely that's game over for Uber and maybe for Waymo. The cost per copy of FSD makes Robotaxi and significantly better solution than Waymo, if they can truly figure it out. Big if right now. You and I are in the same place with regard to our experience with FSD. It's incredible but not perfect. It's a better driver than humans in virtually every situation but its the ones it's not than have to be solved before people are truly onboard.

Waymo is not a viable solution and not scalable. I doubt Elon will want anything to do with Uber and what does Uber offer that Tsla needs?

If and when Tsla solved FSD, they could easily undercut both Uber/Waymo by 50% and still be break even.

I don't think Uber will be in its current form in 5 yrs. I have never shorted a stock, but I would UBER if I did.