So when are we jumping off this parabolic ride to the moon?

1,855 Views | 11 Replies | Last: 8 days ago by LMCane
LMCane
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2:36p, 6/2/26
It's the most amazing time to be investing the past 4 months as my returns have been skyrocketing.

I look at some stocks go up 1135% over a few years (which I was never in!!)

how much longer can this tech / AI / Quantum / Data Center trade go on?

when is everyone going to go more conservative?

I'm a few years from retirement.
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62strat
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In reply to LMCane • 3:37p, 6/2/26
AG
LMCane said:
It's the most amazing time to be investing the past 4 months as my returns have been skyrocketing.

I look at some stocks go up 1135% over a few years (which I was never in!!)

how much longer can this tech / AI / Quantum / Data Center trade go on?

when is everyone going to go more conservative?

I'm a few years from retirement.

I've been enjoying this ride for a while. Why jump off?
My initial purchase was ~486.52 shares for $5k in Aug 2017, then bought another 30 or so in 2021. The dividend payouts on this MF are crazy.

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LOYAL AG
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8:09a, 6/6/26
AG
Well since much of the equipment needed to build the data centers is backordered, some of it for an extended period, I'm going with "not anytime soon". The reshoring of manufacturing requires significant increases in automation and that requires significant increases in computing power. We're at the precipice of the American worker becoming the most efficient worker on earth and that's going to accelerate this boom as companies unwind the huge, complex supply chains we've built over the past five decades.

TLDR this isn't stopping anytime soon.
The federal government was never meant to be this powerful.
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JohnClark929
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In reply to LMCane • 8:37a, 6/6/26
LMCane said:
It's the most amazing time to be investing the past 4 months as my returns have been skyrocketing.

I look at some stocks go up 1135% over a few years (which I was never in!!)

how much longer can this tech / AI / Quantum / Data Center trade go on?

when is everyone going to go more conservative?

I'm a few years from retirement.

1) I'm never going more conservative. I have a balanced portfolio that is overweight AI and will remain so.

2) When do I think everyone else will go conservative? I think the Nasdaq could fall 50% from it's high this year and most folks wouldn't go more conservative. Duration matters just as much as magnitude. We haven't had a drawdown peak-trough last longer than 11 months since Mar2009. I don't think everyone will go more conservative until the Nasdaq has a drawdown lasting longer than 12-18 months. Somewhere at that point, folks will get tired of seeing dead cat bounces with their portfolio still decreasing or stagnating.
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YouBet
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In reply to JohnClark929 • 9:02a, 6/6/26
AG
JohnClark929 said:
LMCane said:
It's the most amazing time to be investing the past 4 months as my returns have been skyrocketing.

I look at some stocks go up 1135% over a few years (which I was never in!!)

how much longer can this tech / AI / Quantum / Data Center trade go on?

when is everyone going to go more conservative?

I'm a few years from retirement.

1) I'm never going more conservative. I have a balanced portfolio that is overweight AI and will remain so.

2) When do I think everyone else will go conservative? I think the Nasdaq could fall 50% from it's high this year and most folks wouldn't go more conservative. Duration matters just as much as magnitude. We haven't had a drawdown peak-trough last longer than 11 months since Mar2009. I don't think everyone will go more conservative until the Nasdaq has a drawdown lasting longer than 12-18 months. Somewhere at that point, folks will get tired of seeing dead cat bounces with their portfolio still decreasing or stagnating.

Bold proclamation. You might change your mind if/when you build enough wealth that you can live off and then your mindset might change to protect that wealth and not leave it up to the markets.
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Kenneth_2003
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 9:50a, 6/6/26
AG
LOYAL AG said:
Well since much of the equipment needed to build the data centers is backordered, some of it for an extended period, I'm going with "not anytime soon". The reshoring of manufacturing requires significant increases in automation and that requires significant increases in computing power. We're at the precipice of the American worker becoming the most efficient worker on earth and that's going to accelerate this boom as companies unwind the huge, complex supply chains we've built over the past five decades.

TLDR this isn't stopping anytime soon.

The backorders don't necessarily foretell continued stock valuation increases as those are known quantities and therefore already priced in by forward looking markets. The markets will look at that and say, "Ok, what next? Where's the continued growth after that?" Maintaining a steady order book or consistent backlogs becomes a plateau.

Everything following that opening sentence does support your thesis of "not anytime soon" as there is still uncertainty as to how this plays out beyond traditional forecast periods. As reshoring continues and productivity and efficiency gains materialize then new growth is forecast and that will drive higher highs.

Keep your hands and feet inside the vehicle and stay on this ride!
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to YouBet • 11:12a, 6/6/26
AG
YouBet said:
JohnClark929 said:
LMCane said:
It's the most amazing time to be investing the past 4 months as my returns have been skyrocketing.

I look at some stocks go up 1135% over a few years (which I was never in!!)

how much longer can this tech / AI / Quantum / Data Center trade go on?

when is everyone going to go more conservative?

I'm a few years from retirement.

1) I'm never going more conservative. I have a balanced portfolio that is overweight AI and will remain so.

2) When do I think everyone else will go conservative? I think the Nasdaq could fall 50% from it's high this year and most folks wouldn't go more conservative. Duration matters just as much as magnitude. We haven't had a drawdown peak-trough last longer than 11 months since Mar2009. I don't think everyone will go more conservative until the Nasdaq has a drawdown lasting longer than 12-18 months. Somewhere at that point, folks will get tired of seeing dead cat bounces with their portfolio still decreasing or stagnating.

Bold proclamation. You might change your mind if/when you build enough wealth that you can live off and then your mindset might change to protect that wealth and not leave it up to the markets.

This. There's a time to be focused primarily on wealth accumulation -- and if you're successful -- it can make a lot of sense to then focus on wealth preservation, especially as you age and lose the benefit of time to make up for large losses.

I don't wish anyone a painful lesson, but it is so funny seeing the comment about "I will never go conservative" and "I'll always overweight AI."

I remember when it was "the new economy" (dotcom bust) and when "housing will never go down" (Great Financial Crisis).

Good luck to all!
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MemphisAg1
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In reply to JohnClark929 • 11:16a, 6/6/26
AG
JohnClark929 said:

2) When do I think everyone else will go conservative? I think the Nasdaq could fall 50% from it's high this year and most folks wouldn't go more conservative. Duration matters just as much as magnitude. We haven't had a drawdown peak-trough last longer than 11 months since Mar2009. I don't think everyone will go more conservative until the Nasdaq has a drawdown lasting longer than 12-18 months. Somewhere at that point, folks will get tired of seeing dead cat bounces with their portfolio still decreasing or stagnating.

You might want to check that Nasdaq history again. She had a similar moonshot in 1999. Then it collapsed and took 15 years to recover to the same point.

The Nikkei took 34 years to recover from a crash.

Not saying either of those happen this time, but to say it can't happen is ignoring history.
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JohnClark929
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12:29p, 6/6/26
1) My balanced portfolio allows me to be 'bold' in keeping my AI allocation.

2) My point on the drawdown duration isn't that it won't happen again. Of course it will happen again. My point is investors need to feel pain (DURATION in addition to magnitude) to become fearful and 'conservative'. My additional implication is that investors have had it easy since Mar2009; they feel greed and have recency bias so it will take a long duration drawdown to sober them up.
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Dirt 05
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12:36p, 6/6/26
AG
I think we'll see a pull back or weakening with the big upcoming IPO's (space x, anthtropic)- enough folks will be selling other investments to fund these acquisitions that it will impact the broader market.
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JohnClark929
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In reply to Dirt 05 • 12:40p, 6/6/26
Dirt 05 said:
I think we'll see a pull back or weakening with the big upcoming IPO's (space x, anthtropic)- enough folks will be selling other investments to fund these acquisitions that it will impact the broader market.


Something I'm also watching. I believe some of the crypto drawdown is investors finding other moonshot investment options (AI).
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LMCane
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 12:45p, 6/6/26
LOYAL AG said:
Well since much of the equipment needed to build the data centers is backordered, some of it for an extended period, I'm going with "not anytime soon". The reshoring of manufacturing requires significant increases in automation and that requires significant increases in computing power. We're at the precipice of the American worker becoming the most efficient worker on earth and that's going to accelerate this boom as companies unwind the huge, complex supply chains we've built over the past five decades.

TLDR this isn't stopping anytime soon.

I agree

does ANYONE know how much of this is tied into building ACTUAL DATA CENTERS and how much is tied into the overall economy?

my point is that there will only be a few hundred data centers ever built, and most of those profits can already be calculated

but how much of these companies will be supporting sales to 5 billion humans- and how many to only 100 work sites which when finished means their profit and sales to book plummets.

I never hear any "analyst" discussing this issue
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