I'm hearing abysmal April sales numbers out of builders.

Austin and the area around it is slowwwww

I've been checking daily with ABOR and they still only have the March data. I'll post it ASAP.

Roger that

Came across this article today and thought it tracks pretty well with the explosion in inventory in the market. There are simply not many buyers that can afford these prices and carrying costs. Think it's likely anyone who bought within the last 4 years is underwater even before the 5% realtor cut.

https://www.redfin.com/news/sellers-vs-buyers-price-impact/

I think people that bought in 2020-2022 likely have equity ahead of them. Those that bought in '24 or later probably don't. Of course that is a general stance, some micro markets are different.

Hearing that AIRBNBs in Galveston are teetering on a bloodbath? Would make sense that if we have a major problem coming, that would be the canary. Anyone have numbers?

Housing market (in Central Texas) is also showing similar signs as it was in 2010-2012

HOUSTON

The Facts

• Interest is up and
• the stock market's down
• (price of oil is down too)
• tariffs are no fun either, therefore:
• A lot of folks are not in the mood to buy homes in Houston right now
• Sales are down YOY about 3.5%.
• Total active listings are up about 30% YOY.
• Average and median home prices are up 0.5% and statistically FLAT.
• Inventory is up to 4.9 months.
• The 10 year treasury is floating around 4.5%.
• The market is betting that the Fed won't lower rates until September 2025.
• Almost every single deal where I've run comps in the last month has shown HIGHER inventory levels than what HAR published this month. Some of the market areas are scary high as has been mentioned above.

My Take

• 
  Interest is up
  
• and the stock market is down
• (Price of oil is down too)
• Tariffs are no fun either
• A lot of folks are not in the mood to buy homes in Houston right now.
• This is going to be one of those where I say that I don't care what the data says, I'm right and the data isn't showing the full picture or is just wrong. This spring sales season has been BAD for sellers (and good for buyers) and I think its going to get worse before it gets better.


• Over the course of my entire career, I've always had out of state buyers (the types that go to get rich quick conferences) make offers at ~50% to ~60% of market value if a home that I have listed has been on the market a while. This year, I'm seeing local numbers text me and offer what they probably believe is a break even deal for my sellers. Something like ~75-90% of asking price. They are definitely searching out the folks who are desperate, and moving along if they don't hit their mark. Normal buyers, on the other hand, are kind of tossing out "low" offers to see what sticks also. Myself and other agents in the office have had good success making offers that are probably not what a seller really wants to see, but is their best option otherwise. I'm talking about 85-90% of asking price type of offers.
• If you are a seller, and you NEED to sell, I would try to move your home as quickly as possible. A lot of my sellers who aren't finding success selling are doing great when choosing to rent instead. If the cash flow is there, this could be a solid option. I'm not trying to cause panic, but we (sellers) are probably headed for a rough patch for a few months or years if something doesn't change.
• Save your cash if you aren't already. Deals incoming?
• My only caveat to all this is that the luxury and first time home buyer type markets (I define those as less than $400k and more than $1M in Houston) have seemed to have done just fine. These sellers aren't really concerned with the fun stuff that the mean/median priced folks are dealing with right now.
• I sold a ~$2 million home in Memorial this last month. We had great interest and might have had multiple offers if we had let it go a bit longer. Fun deal.
• We sold a home in Friendswood where another agent called me the week before closing to ask how we got under contract when we were priced significantly higher than her listing, when both were the same floor plan. That one made me feel good.
• I helped a nice gentleman in Laurel Creek sell his home. It was my second deal in that neighborhood in the last year and he did really well on the deal.
• We helped a few Ags lease their homes as well. I'm an investor myself, so I'm always game for this if it makes sense for an owner and they are game.

Sources:

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2181

https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2180

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

I forgot to mention that the bond market is going bananas. The US Federal Government, which was always basically considered a risk free bet, was recently downgraded, which has coincided with an increase in the 10 year treasury, which corresponds to higher interest rates on mortgages. I'm not sure "panic" is the right word, but the bond market is definitely not sunshine and roses.

Do you think HAR is putting out misleading data? One funny thing I've noticed is every linkedin article about the housing market weakness has a bunch of realtors commenting how in their area everything is rock solid and multiple offers on every deal.

https://www.realestateinaustin.com/blog/central-texas-housing-report-april-2025/


"In March, 1,372 resale homes closed, down 6.9% from March of '24. That's the lowest number of of sales in the month of March since 2011."

"The number of available homes in March was 6,957, up 31% from last March. That's the highest number of available homes in any March since 2011 not coincidentally the last time we had the fewer sales in March. "

"The average sales price to list price ratio was 97.4%. For homes that closed in March, the average days on market was 82, up from 69 last year. That's the longest days on market for the month of March since 2012"

CS78 said:

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Hearing that AIRBNBs in Galveston are teetering on a bloodbath? Would make sense that if we have a major problem coming, that would be the canary. Anyone have numbers?

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I was there this past weekend with my family. I was showing some of the houses to my BIL as he's looking for a second home, but not to STR it. Prices are going down! It's like a fire sale.

Thanks. My info was coming from a Houston retiree that's spends a lot of time there renting AIRBNBs. Said occupancy is wide open and rental rates are falling. Wonder how foreclosures will look in 6 months.

Always interested in data for the Midland area if y'all have it. My wife and I are currently working with a custom builder to build a new home, but honestly wondering if we should back out of the deal. We were already paying a premium for it, and it seems like that's only to get more true as the market continues to soften and we're also starting to see layoffs in O&G.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/real-estate/article/galveston-buyers-market-homes-airbnb-sell-off-20279562.php

I've been saying it for months. The housing market is just starting to show signs of cracking.

Record home unaffordability, high rates (in relation to cost of living and wages compared to historically similar times), and already a buyers market in most pockets. Yet no buyers. It's not going to magically get better.

I still think we ultimately see a significant housing correction before things improve. Even the product on the market in the "affordable range" is total crap. Likely rent houses from first time landlords during COVID who had no idea what they were doing. That, and throw in some bare bones cookie cutters with nothing to offer that were bought when people were just having to grab "something" because inventory was tight and homes were flying off the market to cash buyers.

For first time home buyers to come back, rates need to be 3% or less without a coinciding price increase, or prices need to be significantly lower. Will continue pounding that drum until reality hits.

Saw this

U.S. HOME SELLERS ARE SITTING ON $700 BILLION WORTH OF LISTINGS, AN ALL-TIME HIGH: REDFIN REPORTS

There’s a total of $698 billion worth of homes for sale in the U.S., up 20.3% from a year ago and the highest dollar amount ever

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) June 2, 2025

FILO505 said:

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Rates don't need to go back below 3%. Ever. They just need to get into the low to mid 4s/low 5s and stabilize. Sub-threes will put us right back in this same mess in five years

The market has to do its part

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No first time home buyers are buying with a 4.5% rate when their payment is $3k+. That's why FTHB average age is up to the late 30's from early 30's 10 years ago.

There is no stabilize. We're in the era where interest on the debt is snowballing and can't even be reduced, even at lower rates.

Watching this thread closely and not too sure what move to make.. Currently planning for a move to Houston at the end of the year/Q1 next year due to work. There is a new home builder offering a 3/2/1 buydown with inventory homes which are currently slated for Sep/Oct, which is a touch too soon for us. If they start rolling them into November/December I was going to jump on it, since that buy down will help a ton in the first three years with the expectation of refinancing afterwards, but if there are going to be some price corrections for existing housing I'd really prefer to get a larger lot than what they have to offer in the subdivision... Also would hate to overpay on a new home for the market to immediately crash afterwards...

Did I miss the Bryan College Station data?

There is almost 5x more inventory for sale in Dallas today than there was in 2021

And believe me, there is not 5x more demand pic.twitter.com/SLynbwvYWC

— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) June 9, 2025

Yepp. Happening all over. We listed our home back at the beginning of May. There wasn't a ton of supply, and now all of a sudden there is A LOT with a relatively small pool of buyers. Now seems like it would a great time to be a buyer if you can find desperate sellers. Luckily, we are in no rush and perfectly fine staying put for the time being.

Blazing rising inventory is an issue, and it ain't just new builders. They're just the ones that can offer lower rates in house. The Texas market is a mess, depending on the market you serve. It's yuck out there

Unless you're a buyer. Then? It's open game. Within reason.

Is there a way to post Washington County as well?

TxAG#2011 said:

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Do you think HAR is putting out misleading data? One funny thing I've noticed is every linkedin article about the housing market weakness has a bunch of realtors commenting how in their area everything is rock solid and multiple offers on every deal.

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I just logged into HAR and saw this. Why would HAR do this? To prop up listings that have been on the market forever? To help the consumer? lol...