What I got Right / Wrong

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ColleyvilleAg06
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9:10p, 3/15/26
AG
I do these posts more than anything so i can look back at them through the years and continue to tweak the formula. That said i am particularly pleased with this year that i feel like i have this figured out.

68/68 teams in (although most doing this can say the same)

55 correctly seeded

12 1 seed away
  • Virginia (4 / last 3), Arkansas was my top 5, they moved to a 4
  • Flipped Utah State and Georgia on the 8/9 line, had Georgia as my top 9
  • Flipped A&M and Saint Louis on 9/10 (Had A&M as my last 10)
  • Flipped NC State / Missouri for 10/11 (Had NC State as my last 10)
  • Flipped North Dakota State/Troy on 13/14 (NDSU was my last 13, Troy my first 14 and committee switched that)
  • Flipped UMBC / Queens on 15/16
1 2 seeds away (Vanderbilt, had them as the last 3 seed, ended a 5)
  • This one is shocking to me
Honestly the thing i am most proud about is not that i nailed every team and almost every teams seed - it is that my seed list was nearly identical to the NCAA's, for the top 25 every team was exact except for Arizona/Michigan flipped, Vandy moved 5 spots back from where i had them and everyone moved up 1, had Louisville/UNC flipped. Everything else in the top 7 seed lines was exact. Same really for the 12-16 seed lines.

That resulted in nailing the East region pretty much exactly 1 Duke, 2 UConn, 3 Mich St 4 Kansas with at least 3 of the top 4 tracked to each of the other regions (Lunardi could never).

No idea what that means for scoring or how it compares to bracket matrix but i have to imagine it would be near the very top. Side note - if anyone is particularly skilled at setting up a very simple interface to host where i can regularly update a 1-68 (none of the word description i do here, just for the purpose of being eligible for bracket matrix, i'd be interested in partnering with you to actually do all the analysis and you can host and collect any click revenue. I would still provide updates here on TA with the narrative of where A&M sits but just a site with the 1-68 updated seeds is what i am looking for. Just let me know.


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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 9:32p, 3/15/26
AG
Great job as always, even if you're too nice

We'll get this figured out for next year. I'll also host Louisville Ag's bracket. And then I'll combine the two to have our own bracket matrix. And then maybe start my own hater's bracket.

And then we'll submit all four to the actual bracket matrix.
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 8:50a
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
I do these posts more than anything so i can look back at them through the years and continue to tweak the formula. That said i am particularly pleased with this year that i feel like i have this figured out.

68/68 teams in (although most doing this can say the same)

55 correctly seeded

12 1 seed away
  • Virginia (4 / last 3), Arkansas was my top 5, they moved to a 4
  • Flipped Utah State and Georgia on the 8/9 line, had Georgia as my top 9
  • Flipped A&M and Saint Louis on 9/10 (Had A&M as my last 10)
  • Flipped NC State / Missouri for 10/11 (Had NC State as my last 10)
  • Flipped North Dakota State/Troy on 13/14 (NDSU was my last 13, Troy my first 14 and committee switched that)
  • Flipped UMBC / Queens on 15/16
1 2 seeds away (Vanderbilt, had them as the last 3 seed, ended a 5)
  • This one is shocking to me
Honestly the thing i am most proud about is not that i nailed every team and almost every teams seed - it is that my seed list was nearly identical to the NCAA's, for the top 25 every team was exact except for Arizona/Michigan flipped, Vandy moved 5 spots back from where i had them and everyone moved up 1, had Louisville/UNC flipped. Everything else in the top 7 seed lines was exact. Same really for the 12-16 seed lines.

That resulted in nailing the East region pretty much exactly 1 Duke, 2 UConn, 3 Mich St 4 Kansas with at least 3 of the top 4 tracked to each of the other regions (Lunardi could never).

No idea what that means for scoring or how it compares to bracket matrix but i have to imagine it would be near the very top. Side note - if anyone is particularly skilled at setting up a very simple interface to host where i can regularly update a 1-68 (none of the word description i do here, just for the purpose of being eligible for bracket matrix, i'd be interested in partnering with you to actually do all the analysis and you can host and collect any click revenue. I would still provide updates here on TA with the narrative of where A&M sits but just a site with the 1-68 updated seeds is what i am looking for. Just let me know.



That would be a score of 381 out of 408. That would be the highest in the last 5 years out of anyone doing it! I was really proud of my 366 but you made that look pedestrian. Great job!
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LouisvilleAg
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8:51a
AG
The scoring works as follows:

3 points for each team correctly picked.
3 points for each team correctly seeded
1 point for each team off by 1 seed
0 points for any team off by more than 1 seed.
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LouisvilleAg
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8:54a
AG
On Vandy, what I think the committee did was just lazy. They flipped Arkansas and Vandy due to the conference championship game result. No way Vandy should have dropped 5 lines due to that game. If the championship game would have been the day before, then I think they may have dropped a line or two.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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The Collective
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9:14a
AG
Colleyville > Joe, in my heart...
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bobinator
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In reply to The Collective • 9:18a
AG
The Collective said:
Colleyville > Joe, in my heart...

It's not even close.

Colleyville is sometimes wrong (because predicting the actions of a room full of people is a hard thing to do), but his approach is exactly how people should do it. Not just moving people around based on vibes or whatever all the time.
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:40a
Colleyville - How much did a potential regional matchup with Houston play into our seeding and region?
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DartmouthAg
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 9:55a
Did you mean to write that A&M was your last 9? (Your post says 10.) Otherwise, you had the Ags and St Louis correct.

Looks like your bracket would have had two SEC teams in the same play-in (sip and Mizz). I imagine the committee would have avoided that. (Also would have avoided A&M/UGA matchup.)

Changing subjects, I think it's interesting no SEC teams are in the East bracket. Big 10 & 12 have at least one in each region; ACC is evenly divided.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 11:03a
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
Colleyville - How much did a potential regional matchup with Houston play into our seeding and region?


Had I projected A&M as a 10, it would have been in the south region and in Oklahoma City to match up with UH in the 2nd round.

Once you get beyond the first 4 seed lines the philosophy is to first avoid same conference and rematches (which would eliminate UCF from going here) and then to see if there is an area of natural geographic interest. So Mizzou to St. Louis and A&M to OKC/Houston makes sense.
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25Lighters
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11:11a
AG
Excellent work all around Colleyville!

IMO you don't get Vandy wrong, the committee totally hosed them. They should have been a three seed. Them being a 5 seed is atrocious compared to the committee ranking them behind Kansas and Nebraska. Even Michigan State.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to DartmouthAg • 11:22a
AG
DartmouthAg said:
Did you mean to write that A&M was your last 9? (Your post says 10.) Otherwise, you had the Ags and St Louis correct.

Looks like your bracket would have had two SEC teams in the same play-in (sip and Mizz). I imagine the committee would have avoided that. (Also would have avoided A&M/UGA matchup.)

Changing subjects, I think it's interesting no SEC teams are in the East bracket. Big 10 & 12 have at least one in each region; ACC is evenly divided.


Yes that was a typo I had A&M as my last 9 (not last 10).

I had both Texas and Mizzou in my last 4 in but not playing each other. In my projected bracket posted I had Texas playing SMU and Mizzou playing Miami.
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Emilio Fantastico
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 11:28a
AG
What did Lunardi score?
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NyAggie
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12:08p
AG
Colleyville, this is the first year I followed your bracketing predictions and I have to say you freakin nailed it.

I felt very confident all along that we'd be in just based upon your bracket

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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to Emilio Fantastico • 12:48p
AG
Emilio Fantastico said:
What did Lunardi score?

The bracket that is on the ESPN website is pretty good this year. I don't know when that was submitted as there is no timestamp that I can find. Was that submitted at 5:59 or was that submitted earlier in the day like Colleyville and I did?

Don't know.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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bobinator
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 12:52p
AG
Yeah I was going to say, other than his weird flipping around of Auburn and Indiana earlier in the week Lunardi was pretty good this year too.

Pretty easy year though.

We don't talk enough about how much better the NCAA has gotten at this process over the last decade or so. There's still some weird quirks every year but for the most part they do a MUCH better job than they used to.
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gamedrunk
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2:55p
AG
Great job and thanks!

What are your final 4, 2 and champion picks? I'll use that in my bracket at work which heavily favor the winner.
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