Although both A&M & Saint Mary's got blown out by Vanderbilt, there is still a lot to learn from the game.

(1) Free throw attempts and personal fouls

• Free throw disadvantage was huge in A&M game. Vanderbilt got "fouled" 24 times and shot 29 free throws whereas we got fouled 16 times and only shot 10 free throws.
• In Vanderbilt vs St. Mary's, the personal fouls were even (20 for each team) and free throws were essentially even (Vanderbilt - 22; St Marys - 20)

On the season, A&M averaged 17.8 FTA per game while Saint Mary's averaged 16.8.

Saint Mary's seemed to get a "fair" game and got blown out. Arguably, A&M doesn't get blown out with a "fair" game.

Yes, Saint Mary's shoots their FTs better than us; however, at 20 FTA/game, it only comes out to a ~1.4 points/game advantage for Saint Mary's.

(2) Steals/ Turnovers

• Vanderbilt and A&M both averaged 8.1 steals per game over the season. Vanderbilt opponents averaged 12.8 turnovers/game while A&M opponents averaged 13.6 turnovers/game.
• In the Saint Mary's/Vanderbilt game, Saint Mary's turned the ball over 16 times. Saint Mary's average turnover rate across the season is 10.8.
• In the A&M/Vanderbilt game, A&M turned the ball over 11 times. A&M average turnover rate across the season is 10.8.

We average similar steals to Vanderbilt and actually force more turnovers. Saint Mary's seemed to have issues dealing with this. This should be a huge advantage for A&M.


(3) Available Offensive Rebounds (Avail ORB)

Available ORB=(FGAFGM)+0.44(FTAFTM)

Where:
FGA FGM = missed field goals
FTA FTM = missed free throws
0.44 approximates the portion of free throws that actually create rebound opportunities.

• Saint Mary's vs Vanderbilt

Saint Mary:
FG: 23-52
FT: 18-20
29.9 available offensive rebounds
Actual ORB = 6

Saint Mary's (Avail ORB) = 20.1%

Vanderbilt:
FG: 35-67
FT: 18-22
33.8 available offensive rebounds
Actual ORB = 11

Vanderbilt (Avail ORB) = 32.6%

• A&M vs Vanderbilt

A&M:
FG: 28-72
FT: 5-10
46.2 available offensive rebounds
Actual ORB = 16

A&M (Avail ORB) = 34.6%


Vanderbilt:
FG: 25-57
FT: 23-29
34.6 available offensive rebounds
Actual ORB = 12

Vanderbilt (Avail ORB) = 34.6%


These Available ORB Stats would suggest:

• Saint Mary's style prioritizes more on controlled halfcourt transitions/defense which leads to limited offensive crashing
• A&M's full court pressure actually leads to a lot more offensive rebounds and possession creation.

One thing I learned through this analysis is that our offensive rebounding numbers aren't necessarily as bad as everyone believes they are. Our Available ORB % is actually very high in comparison to other tournament teams.


Conclusion:
I looked at quite a few stats across these two games against Vanderbilt but think these three are really unique and important to understanding the common opponent between A&M and Saint Mary's. Ultimately, I actually think this is a good matchup for us. I believe we are going to win if the referees give us a fair game (called equally on both sides, whether good or bad).

This is great content! We always want our teams peaking in March, seems like we got posters delivering as well!

Good analysis but I'm just not sure there's many specifics that can be drawn from the two games.

Worth noting that they played Vandy in a tournament and it was both teams' third game in as many days, and they also played a Vandy team with Duke Miles, which we did not.

An even bigger discrepancy is that we played them at their place.

bobinator said:

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Good analysis but I'm just not sure there's many specifics that can be drawn from the two games.

Worth noting that they played Vandy in a tournament and it was both teams' third game in as many days, and they also played a Vandy team with Duke Miles, which we did not.

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Oh, nice, you are right. Forgot about Duke miles.

Stands to reason. No rebounds to get on made 3's

Not to oversimplify this game but I really do believe if we shoot the 3 ball at high frequency and a reasonable % wer'e likely to win and if we don't wer'e likely to lose

That 28-72 field goal performance vs Vandy makes me nauseous. Buzzlike.