To Doc as well -
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Why would Paul, at that point in time, as a Jew, mean anything other than the Jewish people when he used the term Israel?
I think the point people miss here is labeling "Jew" as equal to "modern people who practice Judaism". That's just not what it meant at the time. Jew means Judaean, a Judaean person. What made you a Judaean person was that you practiced the way of life common to Judaean people, which meant you worshipped Yahweh, lived according to their nomos or Torah or lex or law or custom (whatever word you want to use).
The Jews were not Israel, they were a subset of Israel. Israel was twelve tribes, the Judaean people were two and some change.
The other tribes - the ones of Israel, the northern kingdom - were cut off. The land was depopulated and the people were scattered into the gentiles. The prophecy of the dry bones (which we read on Great and Holy Saturday) is about this - the
whole house of Israel, emphasized when the Word of the Lord (that is, Jesus) tells Ezekiel to take two sticks: one for Judah, and the people of Israel associated with him, and one for Joseph (the stick of Ephraim) and all the house of Israel associated with him. He says:
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Behold, I am about to take the stick of Joseph (that is in the hand of Ephraim) and the tribes of Israel associated with him. And I will join with it the stick of Judah, and make them one stick, that they may be one in my hand...Behold, I will take the people of Israel from the nations among which they have gone, and will gather them from all around, and bring them to their own land. And I will make them one nation in the land, on the mountains of Israel. And one king shall be king over them all, and they shall be no longer two nations, and no longer divided into two kingdoms.
All Israel means the whole house of Israel. This is everywhere in the Prophets - Ezekiel 34:34, Ezekiel 36:24, Ezekiel 39:25, Jeremiah 23:3, Jeremiah 31:8, Isaiah 11:11-12, Isaiah 43:5-6, Isaiah 56:8, Hosea 1:10-11, Zechariah 10:6-10. Micah 2:12-13, Amos 9:11-12. It is even foretold in Deuteronomy 30:3.
So when the Apostles saw the gentiles coming from the nations they snapped right to this. They refer to it in the deliberation at the council of Jerusalem, quoting the passage from Amos. St Paul is right in line with this in Romans. He is saying that these people of the gentiles ARE the restoration of Israel. They BECOME Israel, they are grafted in. That's why he tells gentile believers, former pagans, "OUR fathers were under the cloud and passed through the sea, they were baptized into Moses in the cloud and the sea." When they were baptized into Christ, they became Israelites -- because Christ's circumcision was applied to them.
St Paul is not talking about "Jew" as a religious identifier, he is talking about the specific people of Judea, who were the only people left of Israel. The other branches were cut off. But, he notes that being a Judaean isn't really about blood, it is inward, spiritual. Some of the people of Judea were merely tribal Judaeans... those are the ones St John calls "the Jews". Not all who are descended from Israel are truly Israelites. Before the Holy Spirit came to the gentiles, only a portion of Judah was Israel - the faithful remnant. A portion of a portion, the people prepared by St John for the Messiah.
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And when Paul described the ingrafting of the Gentiles into the vine (Christ) why did he not use the term Israel?
With the coming of the Spirit to the gentiles, those tribes scattered and lost into the nations are brought back. The dry bones - dead, gone tribes - are reborn. New life appears where they had been completely obliterated. they are grafted into the root of Judah, who is Christ, and through that great miracle All Israel is saved. All the tribes, and ultimately All Israel that is saved becomes All Mankind. The Church, the Assembly of the People of God (which is what Israel is), expands to include all people from the earth, tied to the root of the tree which is Christ, the vine. This is why we say in the hierarchical liturgy - "Look down from heaven, and see; have regard for this vine that your right hand planted".
This is the original plan... it was never that Israel were magic blood special people. They were chosen, set apart, for a specific role. Not because they earned it or because they had done anything to merit it, but by grace. God called them to a role, to be the priest to represent God to the nations, and the nations to God, if they were faithful. They were not, and they were in part (Northern Kingdom) scattered, and in part exiled. And yet in their faithlessness God used them to save the entire world. This is truly a great and amazing miracle when we see the unfolding of providence looking back!
We should absolutely pray for modern Jews, descendants of the Judaean people and others who practice their religion. And for all mankind. Israel's role - which is the same today as ever - is to act as a kingdom of priests to intercede for mankind before God, to pray for the world, to offer sacrifices for the world.