I talked with @Tatarigami_UA: "You have 2-3 people teams who walk through gaps in defenses. Eventually, you can get 2-3 platoons in the area. They just keep moving as deep as they can... If Russia has reserves, they can exploit it, If they don’t, it will likely get contained."

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 12, 2025

MORE: Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that Russia is unwilling to compromise and remains committed to achieving its original war goals in Ukraine. Putin’s recent demand is notably only about the conditions that Ukraine must meet before Putin will agree to a ceasefire, not… https://t.co/V5Xnpz8rkE pic.twitter.com/NCmdyTwBQw

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) August 12, 2025

If Trump pushes Ukraine to trade out its fortified front line in Donetsk and Luhansk, you can put a fork in Ukraine's eastern half. They wont be able to build out its defenses before russia regroups and attacks from a better position within a year.

Italian media Corriere della Sera, citing a Kremlin adviser, says Putin’s proposals include: Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, partial Russian pullback from Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, demilitarization, federalization, and a bilateral… pic.twitter.com/1l6xv9V4E0

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) August 12, 2025

Who?mikejones! said:

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Italian media Corriere della Sera, citing a Kremlin adviser, says Putin’s proposals include: Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas, partial Russian pullback from Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv, Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, demilitarization, federalization, and a bilateral… pic.twitter.com/1l6xv9V4E0

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) August 12, 2025

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So nothings changed but putins request to meet. Why is that and Trump should respond with the threat of sending 300 tomahawks.

The General Staff said more than 110,000 Russian troops are concentrated in the Pokrovsk area and are attempting to penetrate defenses by sending small infantry units between Ukrainian lines.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) August 12, 2025

Europe continues to step up, long ago surpassing the US in total aid to Ukraine and now exceeding the US in military aid, too.

"In May and June 2025 alone, European governments allocated 10.5 billion ($12.3 billion) in new military assistance, of which at least 4.6 billion ($5.4 billion) is being routed through procurement contracts, rather than pulled from existing stockpiles, underscoring the growing centrality of industrial output over surplus arsenals."

AID

not sure why Putin would agree to end the war

when he is about to capture Poprovsk and the Uke army is starting to teeter...

I think the real issues have always been about (a) neutralizing (if only as a pretext) what he saw as a threat from Ukraine toward (ethnic) Russian populations and (b) money, which is at last becoming an issue. It's not really about land, which of course Russia has plenty of. Trump can simply strategically offer terms that enrich the Russian oligarchs more than continuing the war does (plus I am skeptical that the Russian economy might be closer to a negative tipping point than the Russians claim).

And yes consider the source, but the Russians are certainly very upbeat right now about the summit and just ending the war. Keep in mind also, the other/primary beneficiary of the war (China) has their hands full right now in many respects and might also want it to end sooner than later.

My point is just that if Putin, Xi and DJT want it over, it's gonna end.

US official to Axios:

Even if the diplomatic efforts fail, Trump will continue selling weapons to NATO countries for Ukraine.

— Clash Report (@clashreport) August 13, 2025

The US imposing terms on Kyiv might have worked a year ago, but Ukraine and Europe are now proving they can fight on without active US involvement. Trump reportedly agreed to the following, but whether he remembers any of it in Alaska remains to be seen.

"Kyiv set out five key demands. Ukraine will engage in no peace talks without a prior ceasefire, Ukraine must be involved in negotiations and Ukraine will make the decision on any territorial concessions with discussions beginning from the current front lines. Kyiv has also said it needs solid security guarantees -- with U.S. involvement -- to agree to any deal, and that more sanctions and pressure should be put on Russia if the Alaska summit is unsuccessful."

RED LINES

Ukrainian forces repelled another large mechanized assault on Mala Tokmachka in the Orikhiv sector. Russian troops advanced from Verbove with heavy armor across fields, followed by motorcyclists attempting to break in from Novoprokopivka. The attack failed. Reported Russian… pic.twitter.com/ljkDPZiDpi

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) August 14, 2025

Updates covering pre-summit jitters and the status of the frontline.

"Zelenskyy reiterated that withdrawing from Ukraine-controlled territory was out of the question, especially as the question of security guarantees for Ukraine, were not being discussed.

"We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do this. Everyone forgets the first part our territories are illegally occupied," Zelenskyy told reporters at a briefing on Tuesday. "Donbas for the Russians is a springboard for a future new offensive."

Zelenskyy said this is what occurred in 2014 when Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula."

EXTORTION

Waffledynamics said:

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????

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Reading reports that this Russian assault collapsed.

Explosion in Myrnohrad.

In Myrnohrad wurde eine heftige Explosion gemeldet https://t.co/m6Qtqmoi9u

— Thomas Mutschler (@ThomasMutschler) August 14, 2025

The Kremlin is coming to Alaska with a severely weakened domestic economy, which affords the Trump administration significant leverage during the summit. ⬇️ https://t.co/DxQwxTXxsg pic.twitter.com/TKWKfcyVis

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) August 15, 2025

ISW said:

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Unnamed officials told Bloomberg that Putin has repeatedly requested sanctions relief as part of any deal to be discussed in Alaska, which ISW assesses likely indicates that Putin is concerned about the state of the Russian economy and is seeking economic reprieve from the West.[16]

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Sanctions relief is almost always a huge bargaining chip during peace talks. Bookmark this for the next time someone poo-poos Russian sanctions.

This probably won't help the "peace" talks today in Alaska.

BREAKING 🔴

One of Ukraine's largest drone attack now hits Russia pic.twitter.com/6K6TzL6m8a

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 14, 2025

Oil-gas partnership with the Russians off of Alaska might also be a negotiating point.

Quote:

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Among them are offering Russia opportunities to tap into the valuable natural resources in the Bering Strait that would bolster its interests in the Arctic region, which accounted for 80 percent of Russia's gas production in 2022.

Discussions between the U.S. and Russia over cooperation in the Arctic started at the beginning of Trump's second term, with Bloomberg reporting in February that officials from both countries discussed economic cooperation in the region.

Andreas sthagen, research director of Arctic and ocean politics at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, told Newsweek that the proximity of Alaska's location to Russia for Friday's summit sent a strong signal about the Arctic's importance for both countries.

He said some of the motivation from the Trump administration to work with Russia stemmed from the idea that U.S.-Russia cooperation could then drive a wedge between the strengthening alliance between Moscow and China in the Arctic.

He said there are known quantities of oil and gas in the Chukchi Sea north of the Bering Strait where there was potential to initiate exploration for strategic oil fields, which would require Russian and American companies to collaborate in some fashion, sthagen added.

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agcrock2005 said:

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This probably won't help the "peace" talks today in Alaska.

BREAKING 🔴

One of Ukraine's largest drone attack now hits Russia pic.twitter.com/6K6TzL6m8a

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 14, 2025

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I dunno. Depends on how trump spins it.

DeepState published similar changes today: https://t.co/8PMMjM8V7u

— Conflict Dispatch (@ConflictDISP) August 15, 2025

I don't think the Russians have the resources or enthusiasm to exploit a breakthrough at this point. It just becomes a drone hive from which there is no escape.

Quote:

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General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Forces of 1st Corps of National Guard Azov fully cleared Gruzke, Rubizhne, Novovodiane, Petrivka, Vesele, Zolotyi Kolodyaz villages

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https://liveuamap.com/en/2025/15-august-18-general-staff-of-armed-forces-of-ukraine-forces

**** yeah, Azov!

The Ukes would be in a lot better bargaining position if they could take and hold some part of Russia. It doesn't have to be important. It just needs to be in Russia.

They have some very small, unimportant sections of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Not nearly as much as they had in Kursk before, though.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 15 August 2025.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/DOu2e95wKu#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/c8tfp53teK

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) August 15, 2025

I have a question to posters that have military backgrounds. Why is Russia producing 3X artillery shells than the USA and EU combined???? We have 20X the economy. Its been 3 1/2 years since the initial invasion.

revvie said:

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I have a question to posters that have military backgrounds. Why is Russia producing 3X artillery shells than the USA and EU combined???? We have 20X the economy. Its been 3 1/2 years since the initial invasion.

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Source? A better question is why Russia is buying millions of shells from North Korea if it has such vast production.

revvie said:

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I have a question to posters that have military backgrounds. Why is Russia producing 3X artillery shells than the USA and EU combined???? We have 20X the economy. Its been 3 1/2 years since the initial invasion.

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They are likely setup specifically to make mass artillery ammo and have been doing so for 15 years

MaroonStain said:

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revvie said:

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I have a question to posters that have military backgrounds. Why is Russia producing 3X artillery shells than the USA and EU combined???? We have 20X the economy. Its been 3 1/2 years since the initial invasion.

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They are likely setup specifically to make mass artillery ammo and have been doing so for 15 years

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This and most of their shells are pretty basic rounds. The US/EU production is also tied to long term contracts and we have not allocated significant additional appropriations for purchasing and this producing shells. We have some ability to ramp that up, but the manufacturers will need contracts. Those require appropriations and QED.

It's probably the third or fourth most critical problem we have, but could become the most if China did something wild. Ship building, ship repair, and aging support equipment and vessels are probably higher order issues as they take much, much longer to deal with and we haven't fielded a new non-Carrier/sub model successfully in decades. After ammo probably refitting fields and support facilities in the Pacific and integration of drones would be the next highest but I'm not plugged in anymore.